Norway hmmm - the bookies certainly got that one right.
Iceland this should have won
Azerbaijan I got this one wrong but we won't ever hear it again so never mind
Turkey only beat us at the very last minute, thanks a bunch Norway
UK Jade didn't perform as well as in rehearsals but a respectable show
Estonia yes! well-deserved
Greece 2nd favourite nearly didn't make the top 10 at all
France serious entry, quite surprised it did as well
Bosnia Herzegovinia 9th seems about right
Armenia what? no idea why.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
The top ten
So, as the betting warms up a bit and people start thinking they could make a few bob if Norway doesn't win, here is what I reckon will comprise the top ten:
UK 13-1
Iceland 32-1
Portugal 310-1
Malta 100-1
Estonia 80-1
B&H 34-1
Germany 120-1
Finland 160-1
Albania 230-1
Norway 2-1
Yes, there are some crazy long shots in there and Greece, Azerbaijan and Russia may well replace Albania, Finland and Portugal but I can always hope.
UK 13-1
Iceland 32-1
Portugal 310-1
Malta 100-1
Estonia 80-1
B&H 34-1
Germany 120-1
Finland 160-1
Albania 230-1
Norway 2-1
Yes, there are some crazy long shots in there and Greece, Azerbaijan and Russia may well replace Albania, Finland and Portugal but I can always hope.
Russia
Very long odds for what is actually a reasonable entry which will do well as everyone will want to give the bear some points at least. Not a winner though. Odds for a top 10 finish could be attractive, though. 170-1 - I mean, does someone know something I don't? I know they don't fancy spending another $20 million but with odds like that they could make that sort of profit by backing themselves! Are they fooling us? No. It's someone else's turn.
Spain
A decade ago this would have walked it but not now. Nothing wrong but just all been seen and done before, and better.
France
Very competent singer but I don’t see this staying in people’s minds long enough for them to remember to vote for it. Maybe if France appear last on the night it’ll make the top 10 but otherwise no joy but not nil points either.
Germany
Swing. Decent looking group with great talent and this one stands out from the rest. It'll either do really well or get next to nothing. Odds hanging around 120-1 so nothing much to lose and bags to win!
United Kingdom
Jade looks good and sings well. Seems to be getting a lot of good mentions around the circuit and this entry has to stand a good chance this year. Definitely a top four. Odds dropping to 12.5
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Iceland
One of the few songs that has been well written and doesn’t try too hard to be something else. Nice harmonies and compulsory key change and big ending
Portugal
Folksy, nice, yes, er, nice. Sort of green song. The flute makes it. Good long shot for their 1st win in 42 years
Malta
Anthemic – shows up most of the others’ singing too. Very strong contender if the voters want a large lady singing well.
Andorra
Gerry Halliwell and the girl band perform well – catchy a-a-a line. Should make the top few.
Turkey
That eastern european instrument again. Could be popular but too tik tak tak for my taste and hopefully others
Finland
Rap with great beat and they stay on it too. Gives way to pretty girls to end with. Finns are good musicians. Pity about the fire and pointless dancers. Lose control may win.
Bosnia Herzegovinia
Slow steady sounds like something else as it builds. Smart choreography as we’ve come to expect from BH. True Eurostyle.
Belgium
Apparently he’s supposed to look and sound like Elvis. Er, no. Song sort of loses its way but will appeal to many
Switzerland
Intro sounds like a real band. Singer lets them down a bit. Grows on you and would be a hit here.
Armenia
Slightly frightening women. Pointless song with compulsory eastern European wind instrument occasionally
Croatia
Sing-a-long aah ahh anthem – well sung but maybe more of a film soundtrack. Should be in the top ten
Ireland
One of a few young sounds in the competition. Pretty professionally performed but something missing – just doesn’t stay in the memory etc. Pity.
Poland
Pretty blonde as opposed to strawberry orange that most of the rest have this year, or is it just my screen? Could be a good tune from a stage show but doesn’t really hang together.
Norway
More orange hair but pretty boy with a violin this time. Hot favourite but I think that’s based on looks, and the girls, more than the ability to hit the right notes. Will be in the top 4, though.
The Netherlands
Awful in all respects but especially the clothes. Worse than many 1980s entries. I think this could be one of the worst entries I have heard for a long time. 600-1 is generous. It'll be 1000 by the time I publish this.
Estonia
Complete contrast to Ukraine – a girl that you could safely introduce to your parents, and probably leave with your best friend reasonably safely too. One of the few entries that could be described as quite beautiful. A bit serious, usual soaring bits and violins and just ends as it should. However, probably not interesting enough for some. I like it. 50-1
Ukraine
Boy, that’s one energetic blonde. Very metallic. Over the top. True Eurovision from the early 21st century. 2009? Top 10, maybe top 4 but not a winner. 28-1
Greece
Current 2nd favourite but it is just sort of average 90s. Unless something extra happens before it ends I can only see it hanging around the lower regions of the top 10 - and that'll be because the guy is one of those annoyingly handsome Greeks and his shirt's a little short. It'll do fairly well but really doesn't deserve such short odds. 5-1
Lithuania
No gimmicks – straight song, bloke plus backing group. The stage seems strangely empty. Do they know it’s Eurovision? Never mind
Albania
Another country I desperately want to see win. I quite like this pop song and it presses quite a few Euro buttons. There’s a really disturbing odd shade of green man, though, which may spoil its chances 210-1
Moldova
I’ve always had a strange desire to see Moldova win. A few years ago they had what I thought was a great song and came about 8th. I feel they’re trying a bit too hard this year and the purple boots have to go before the final. It’s a very jumpy eastern bloc theme thing that sort of goes on in the background and ends with a jolly good Hoi Hoi as all Moldovan songs should, I suppose. 200-1
Lithuania
No gimmicks – straight song, bloke plus backing group. The stage seems strangely empty. Do they know it’s Eurovision? Never mind. 160-1 seems short to me!
Greece
Current 2nd favourite but it is just sort of average 90s. Unless something extra happens before it ends I can only see it hanging around the lower regions of the top 10 - and that'll be because the guy is one of those annoyingly handsome Greeks and his shirt's a little short. It'll do fairly well but really doesn't deserve such short odds.
Azerbarjan
Nice to see a dark-haired girl for a change. She’s good but the guy is useless. This has been a well-backed entry but I think it can be safely ignored and will finish up in the middle somewhere. Sort of sad version of previous Ukraine winner
Slovenia
Great, if long, very long, intro. Why on earth is she singing behind a curtain??!! Well-written, good musicians but she should have stayed behind the screen. Odds shortened from 620 to 350 after the performance but no idea why.
Denmark
Ronan Keiting wrote this and must have given his voice to the guy too. Good, but a winner? Doubt it. 85-1 is actually comparatively low odds amongst those excluding Norway! Grows on you, this one. Yes, stick a fiver to be in the top 4.
Slovakia
Another husky hairy male and serious-sounding wailer. Will appeal to the Eastern brigade, I suspect, but not enough unless they get the pace and tune right on the night. You can get 620-1 if you're brave!
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