Top 10 Eurovision 2021 (as I would like it!)

Ireland

Cyprus

France

Italy

Greece

Switzerland

Spain

Germany

Bulgaria

Ukraine

 

A very open competition and unfortunate groupings for some.

2021 looks like being the most polarised competition I can remember. There is a clear dividing line with 7 countries almost certain to make the Final, 13 who will scrape through and the 6 who will be there anyway because they're either hosting it (The Netherlands) or paying for it (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom).

The bookies have Switzerland and Malta as favourites, with Bulgaria, France, Italy and Sweden with a chance of success. 

Switzerland's entry is good, a very beautifully produced number by a talented young fellow with serious Eurovision qualities in terms of boxes that need to be ticked to appeal to the judges and the public. If you think that this year will follow 2019 with a smart ballad by a single male then Switzerland is the first choice.

Spain also have a really first class singer and song but it is quite inexplicably out at over 600-1 which seems to be pretty clear evidence that no-one agrees with me and someone must know something about how badly he will perform on the night to warrant such pessimistic odds as these.

If you think we need a large girl who isn't white and blonde and with a statement to make about what guys can and can't do then Malta fits that bill for you. It's an unpleasant number both to listen to as well as watch but Israel won with almost the same thing in 2019 so that's probably why Malta are now going to be in the Final too and get lots of points from people who like Statements and Issue songs.

It has been quite a change this year with most of the rest of the tracks that we're likely to hear more than once not trying too hard to tell us what to do or not to do, whether that may be to women or the planet. 

Germany are making a statement but it's more timeless and not part of a movement. The guy just says that he doesn't like hate. Period. Unfortunately for Germany he doesn't say a great deal else throughout the song and they're out at a similarly massive 500-1 at the time of writing. Bearing in mind that both Spain and Germany are in the Final and so will each be one of only 26 that could actually win, those odds seem pretty wild and punters are wiggling a middle finger in the direction of Germany's entry.

Belarus have made a statement that no-one likes very much, apart from, I guess, their President and his pals but we don't have to worry as that will not make it anyway and isn't likely to be prime time viewing. Just take a look at the video and see the expression on the band's faces. Well, if you do then that'll probably massively increase the numbers who do view it outside Belarus and give them some hope that we're interested. So don't bother. Just believe me. It's politically-expired rubbish.

Bulgaria have the talented and popular (in Bulgaria) Victoria performing one of her own songs and you can even listen to her new album while you're at it. The song is fairly average but Bulgaria have developed in Eurovision a sort of East-West merger of fans and they often come close nowadays with some genuinely good tracks and modern singers. They could sneak through. It is one of those years when someone with a lot of average points may well beat those who get twelves or zeros (which camp I put Malta in this year).

Italy go a bit more wild then they have before with an impressive rock group, Italian-style rap, and I mean style as the guy is superb, even though I have no idea what he's saying. I nearly always love Italy's Eurovision entries these days and they definitely deserve respect. They will do well but I don't see it winning.

France, on the other hand, might. Theirs is a marvellous song called Voilà and very naturally and pleasantly performed by Barbara Pravi who is very French and it's reminiscent of the Portugal winner. there is something of a theme developing that you may have noticed! France do have a habit of falling at the final hurdle and fine songs don't quite deliver the same magic when they try to do them live. I feel Mme Pravi will not let her country down though and if it is to be a day of averages then she stands a good chance.

Sweden will be in the Final because Sweden always are in the Final. I don't think they should be this year as the song and its delivery are very ordinary and unimaginative, despite all the efforts made for months on end to select their entry. 

Lithuania have a group called Roop that looked very weird last year but who, for some reason only known to Eurovision aficionados and maybe people from Lithuania, became very popular with a catchy little, and otherwise pretty pathetic, number almost designed for Eurovision, the group too with their mustard suits and strange dancing. The bloke looks old enough to know better but there you go. Once again we have a catchy little, and otherwise pretty pathetic, number, mustard suits and odd dancing by a bald bloke who should know better. Yes, it'll be Top 10.

Iceland may well have won last year. There was a lot of hope and expectation for their entry this year, much hyped by charming videos where we could get to know the group, the family and kids. Unfortunately, the release has been disappointing. OK, but not something that, in itself, will get votes. The group will, though. they are a sort of phenomenon and may still win on personality alone.

These are the countries, then that the bookies and punters expect to stand a chance of winning this year. You'll have gathered that none are by any means certain to do more than make the Final 20 + 6. But after them the odds lengthen to the extent where seriously big fortunes can be made if anyone else wins. 

I've mentioned 11 countries so far and they include two with odds over 500. Who else is (a) likely to make the Final and (b) has a decent entry? Which 11 of the rest will join the other four automatic finalists? This is, unfortunately, complicated by the groupings and some very bad stuff will get through and some very good stuff won't.

Group 1 is full of countries that are expected to get through and that's going to be really tough on some. Cyprus and Romania should make it. Cyprus have a great pop song. It does sound terribly similar to Lady Gaga's Alexandro and if I were Cyprus I'd prepare to defend a legal action in this respect if they appear to be likely to do well. In my mind, this is a classic Eurovision winner that comes second and that's probably what will happen this year too. It will get lots of votes and will be a hit too. Romania's entry is a quite moody number, slightly similar to, but not as memorable as, Bulgaria's entry. Expect votes to divide between the two, which might wreck both their chances on the night. Neither will be easy to perform well. But Romania have another good entry that might scrape into the Final.

The others in Group 1 with a likely place are Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Croatia and Ukraine. Croatia is highly commercial with a commercial Tik Tok title even. It's a bit dated, though, but just about deserves a place. Ukraine's entry is almost the exact opposite (commercially-wise) with a weird folk tune and strange vocals. It's ruddy infectious, though, and if it does make it through then it'll attract a lot of attention. They've won before with strange vocals. This is a serious entry and deserves to make the Final. Norway don't. Any bloke dressed as an angel singing a decidedly average song is taking the piss now. They should get nul points but won't. Russia is an unpleasant number from some woman who may or may not be making a statement. I don't know. I don't like it. She shouldn't be in the Final. But it's Russia so she will be. Azerbaijan is another version, to all intents and purposes of their 2020 attempt. It's still poor and very dated. But Russia will back them as well a lot of other countries' juries who don't want to upset the men in Baku.

As a result of the split, Australia and Israel are unlikely to make it which will be a huge disappointment to the enthusiastic new 'honorary European nation', Australia. Both countries have, to my mind, better songs and performances than many who will make it but the voting numbers and favourites don't help them. Worst affected, though, will be poor Ireland. They have a super entry, very well-performed too by someone who can sell records and would be popular given half a chance. It's catchy and drives along from the start, highly memorable but Ireland just don't get the votes these days. If by some magic they do scrape through then watch out for it.

In Group 2, Finland, San Marino, Moldova and Greece ae expected to complete the finalists being voted through. Finland have a heavy metal band who sound very competent and they'll get plenty of support as there's no-one quite like them. Only Italy can take votes from them really. I can't imagine them winning - they're a kind of real Lordi and no-one really likes a real Lordi. Or fat ugly blokes putting their faces in the camera and telling us to put our middle fingers up. Up? Up where, I wonder. Don't tell the German bloke, OK.

San Marino in the Final? Unbelievable? Nearly. It's rubbish and may well make way for someone else except, unlike Group 1, in Group 2 there is no obvious candidate to get more votes! You may see Austria or Portugal scrape in and we can say farewell once again to San Marino but they will have sympathy and a bit of fun going for them. Remember, it is Eurovision.

Moldova do what Moldova does best. Sex. Pretty girl. Nice legs. All quite 1980s and inappropriate, to use the current jargon, but I would almost miss Moldova's antics in Eurovision. And they nearly always do a lot better than anyone imagines they will.

Greece, like Cyprus in Group 1, should just make it through. They deserve to be there and have a good song. It's a pop song, a little dated, perhaps, in comparison to some of the others from Bulgaria and Romania but it is well sung, well-written and, if well-performed too it will bring some cheer and applause from whoever is around on the night. One of the more attractive girls on the stage this year.

So that's it. I think I have mentioned every country that either is expected to be in the Final or who should be. It is a very open field this year and predictions are extremely difficult. If the Groups pan out as expected then some really good acts simply won't make it through and that will leave a clear run for whoever's left. Out of them I feel that, if people are tired of Statement Songs and don't want another dreary ballad either, no matter how good the singer, then it could be the year for Italy or France. If we want to be cheered and dance a bit then lets vote for Cyprus or Greece. If you want weird, it as to be Ukraine or even little Lithuania.

Oh, I didn't mention the United Kingdom. No. No point. It's not good.