The bookies have already effectively written off the chances of 12 of the 40 acts with odds of 1000-1 or more being offered.
| Czech Republic |
| Israel |
| Lithuania |
| Iceland |
| North Macedonia |
| Latvia |
| Denmark |
| Ireland |
| Bulgaria |
| Montenegro |
| Romania |
| Slovenia |
The two semi-finals this year seem a little better balanced than last year and ought to lead to entries that deserve a chance actually getting through.
Here's how the two groups appear likely to finish as things stand at the moment:
Group 1
| Ukraine |
| Greece |
| Norway |
| Netherlands |
| Switzerland |
| Portugal |
| Armenia |
| Croatia |
| Moldova |
| Albania |
Group 2
| Sweden |
| Poland |
| Australia |
| Serbia |
| Finland |
| Cyprus |
| Estonia |
| Belgium |
| San Marino |
| Malta |
You'll see that San Marino and Malta's dire entries are expected to make it to the Final in Group 2 at the expense of poor Ireland and Georgia. Ireland must be windering what on Earth they need to do in this competition. Having been one of the most successful nations in this competition it has only been ruddy Jedward who have given them any hope since. They've had good entries but no-one seems to like them. Odd. And we got through automatically every year with stuff that stood no chance.
But getting back to the Groups I do expect Azerbaijan or Georgia or maybe the Czech Republic to get through and ease out one or more of the lower three as we begin to see and hear more the entries and, especially, when rehearsals start. Every year there is a sea change in the middle regions at rehearsal time and even potential winners find themselves descending fast in the tables after a poor live performance.
I believe that Israel are now not taking part but they were not expected to do well so that makes little difference to the predictions.
All can change completely once we hear and see the acts rather than in well-produced or rehearsed videos but this is how things look today:
Winning ballad
Poland / Estonia
Winning gentle number
Netherlands / Croatia / Armenia
Winning pop song
Sweden / Greece / Italy
Winning something typically Eurovision
Ukraine / UK / Norway / Spain / Serbia
Winning Scandinavian entry
Sweden / Estonia / Norway
Winning Western Europe entry
UK / Spain / Netherlands
Winning Balkans / South Europe entry
Croatia / Serbia / Greece / Italy
Winning East European entry
Ukraine / Poland / Armenia
So there are 13. If I had to cut out three for a Top 10 then it would be Armenia, who may have few friends to vote for them on the night, Norway as Serbia and Ukraine may get more of the wacky votes and perhaps Spain may lose out if the voters don't want a dancing girl with long legs coupled with a general lack of love for Spain's entries now over almost as long as for the UK.
So here's a Top 10:
Ukraine
UK
Sweden
Serbia
Poland
Croatia
Italy
Estonia
Greece
Netherlands
