Thursday, May 05, 2022

Eurovision 2022: Update


Here are the current rankings of entries for Eurovision 2022 from the bookies. Now we know that they never get things absolutely right but it's always an interesting guide as to how things are going for various nations.

The first thing that is so clear this year is the number of nations that have been effectively completely written off so far! There are no less than 15 now at 1000-1 (or more). They might as well not bother turning up. Remarkably this includes Ireland, Croatia and Georgia who I thought had, at least, reasonable entries.

The front runners have not changed since all the tracks were available. Ukraine well out at the front and one does have to wonder whether they will take it just through the sheer sympathy and support they'll get. Their entry isn't too bad either so they'd have always got some votes but I can see people putting them first just to make a point. The jury votes, however, will not be so generous, I suspect, and that may just offer a small opening to someone else to steal it.

The most likely candidates - indeed, the only candidates - appear to be Italy, Sweden, the UK, Spain and Greece. Each stands a good chance in my view and I would rank them pretty evenly with Sweden winning a jury vote but Italy maybe stealing the public vote. Spain is a competent entry but I just see it as a bit dated now and, attractive as the legs may be, it seems to be from another era. The Greek entry is
excellent and may be the one that combines both votes best. The UK really should finish amongst the leaders this year although it doesn't sound like a winner. It will be nice not to be near or at the foot of the table, though!

If voters are in a silly mood then we do need to watch out for Serbia and Norway, each of whom will get significant backing although surely not enough to win as that sort of vote would also enhance Ukraine's chances.

On the more serious side, I am sad to see Armenia and Estonia way down the list, albeit not totally lost causes. Poland have the big ballad top spot it seems, but have not held any decent backing so far, dropping steadily as the weeks pass.

We should be getting some feedback from rehearsals soon as well as the occasional performances live at various parties and they often show just how well someone is going to handle the big occasion. The Semis, of course, are when we really see what people think and I am expecting quite an upheaval in the odds as they progress. There seems little concern about who will make it through this year. It doesn't really matter as there is no likely winner in the danger zone for either of the Semi Finals.

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