Eurovision 2024: The Final

 So here we are - Final night at last. It seems a long, long time since we first heard Dizzy and some of the other first releases. Where will be going this time next year, I wonder?

The bookies never get everything completely right but the do tend to be right about the top two or three. This year there is a massive divide between three leading competitors, then another between four 'possibles' and the rest are in the far distance with odds of 500-1 or more.

The winner is likely to be one of Croatia, Israel or Switzerland, they say. I have written before that I would find an Israel win at this time extraordinary. Not that the song and performer aren't good - they're fine, it's just the politics really don't favour Israel as far as I can see. But maybe the politics of the voting public is diametrically opposed to what we see on the streets of many capitals around the world? If it is, then that is reassuring but I have my doubts. something, however, spooked the bookies and I can only assume either an inordinately large vote or a huge bet came their way after the 2nd semi Final.

Croatia is the catchy, crowd-pleasing one that, bar Israel, I had expected to top the public vote. It has a cheery vibe and lifts people up with its anthemic like whoa-oh bits. 

Switzerland have the complex, clever and beautifully constructed and (hopefully) performed entry, for a long time the favourite but less supported now, possibly with a comparison of voting support with Israel being seen which effectively nullified the Swiss case.

If it isn't one of these then it will be because one of the next entries performed magically on the stage and also impressed the Jury votes in rehearsals.

The contenders are France, Italy, Ireland and Ukraine and it would be difficult to have a more diverse four. France have the one big belter ballad this year, (forget Latvia). If voters want a ballad to win they'll vote for France and those numbers may be enough with most of the others split between similar acts. My view is that this is simply not a good enough ballad, nor is the singer appealing enough, nor his performance sufficiently magical. It's all a bit stodgy and you just want a bit of Italian passion, not French sweat and spray.

Italy have the pretty girl dancer and singer. If you want a pretty girl dancer to win then this is the best one. There are a lot, though, so Miss Mango will have to be amazingly fabulous and all of Italy's nationals abroad will have to vote.

Both Italy and France will be high in the Jury vote so will start at or near the top which will look good for them but not last, I fear.

Ireland have an extraordinary act. If you want an extraordinary act to win then vote for Ireland. Bambie Thug is a name that says it all really. A bony, occasionally sweet but mostly rather frightening girl seems to have lost her mind and just screams at us most of the time. It's clever, shocking and not Eurotrash but something so way-out as to be almost in. It is the one very, very unpredictable entry which could just bomb and never be played again or get millions of votes and win.

Ukraine have the anthem-like passionate thing with a rap break. If you want a passionate song with a rap break then this is for you. I have always seen this as a potential winner. It is a beautiful track, apart from the rap break, and the staging looks fabulous and, so far, the performance has been super with a very strong voice from the lead girl. It's good and deserves to win but it will be only from a massive boost on the night in their votes. It is possible, though, especially if there are splits in support and 12 points are split between other leaders but Ukraine gets plenty of 8s and 10s.

So who else is there, lurking amongst the 500-1 shots?

Only Austria and Norway, I think. The rest really do not stand a chance so it's not worth writing about them.

Austria have a hit, for sure, but the votes are just not going to be enough as rave-dance-party-goers do not necessarily watch Eurovision. It's a great number nevertheless and if Kaleen can perform at the top of her game they may make top ten but not a great deal more.

Norway is the one dark horse I can imagine coming out of nowhere to prove all the predictions wrong.

The UK song isn't bad but I really do not want to watch the performance which is simply ugly. Sweden have clearly given up with their twin X Factor losers being highly forgettable. Armenia's girl is lovely and I wish her well but she has no hope in hell of winning. Greece will get lots of votes and support and should just about make the Top 15, maybe even Top 10 if it's a good day for them. Nothing more though.

Looks like Netherlands are out. Good.

Eurovision 2024: 2nd Semi Final

 I didn't write about the second Semi Final at the time as I thought it would a pretty straightforward affair with quite predictable results. In many ways it was just that but it did give us a chance to see the other acts actually performing as opposed to miming to a backing track or being processed digitally on an exciting but rather unrepresentative video.

We saw the remarkable Nemo perform and present Switzerland's entry The Code extremely professionally but the rest seemed quite lacklustre. Some were already pretty good entries but I saw little extra magic of the type that produces really big and slightly unexpected cheers from the crowd at the end. Greece were well-received but it was a messy performance of quite a messy song. They've done better and now sit at 500-1 if you fancy a bet. A win would give you a million if you bet just £2000.

Armenia were happy. That girl is just so sweet and dances away happily in a way that just makes you smile and wonder why most of the other girls have to strip down to little more than a thong. Not that I mind, although most I find slightly frightening rather than sexy or appealing.

Malta, Italy, Georgia, Czechia and Austria's girls were acts which you might have watched on your own and then hurriedly switched off if your parents came into the room in the 1970s. No-one seems to care now. Italy is as popular as ever and the nation seems to have found a home here in Eurovision as you can't imagine a Top 10 without Italy. Or Ukraine for that matter. Miss Mango, however, didn't impress that much. She is competent and very familiar with the big stage so I am expecting her to do better tonight but still don't see a win for her.

Georgia had fire everywhere which may be prescient, bearing in mind what is brewing back home. She got through but that's all we'll hear, I'm afraid. I do hope they don't start backing Putin, that's all. If they're not around in 2025, you'll know why.

Czechia had one of those songs that's all about 'me' and it grated a bit in a competition that's supposed to be about everyone else. Clearly the voters didn't like it either and, despite not having a great deal of competition to beat, they failed.

Malta's girl was out of tune and out of time and not even sexy enough to gather enough votes to get to the final. she danced well and was thrown around with legs in places I would not have expected legs to be. As an old straight bloke I felt slightly naughty watching on occasion but never mind, she's gone now too.

Kaleen's very catchy Rave anthem will be a big hit, if it isn't already, across Europe this summer and I had hoped that it might be one to watch this year but her performances have got worse as time goes on. It's alive and she looks good and ought to do a lot better. It's almost as if she isn't trying that hard so maybe she'll bring out the big guns, no not those, please, on the night. Her dancers seem to enjoy helping her with many of the moves so they'll have that to look forward to if not a celebration of winning. At 700-1 you only need to back with £1429 to make your million, by the way.

France belted out the one and only ballad. Oh, sorry, Latvia have a ballad too. But that is rather forgettable, even though it did get through. A one point I had France for the win but the more I hear this song the worse it gets and when the bloke stands a mile away from the microphone for the last few notes I just think to myself that 2024 is not the year of the big belter.

The one that did get a huge round of applause and really did make us sit up and take notice was the Norwegian entry by Gåte. This is good, impressive stuff and, if they can be slightly less manic tonight and let the girl stay in the lead with that amazing vocal performance then we may get a surprise.

Netherlands did the rather pathetic Europapa thing which was fancied at one point but surely is not going to win. It's sad Eurotrash, especially the last bit which I do feel we can all do without. Not quite as annoying as Finland's Windows95 man with his dirty-looking underwear but not that much better. I also understand that the singer has got himself into trouble with some rude behaviour at a conference and that will not help him at all, if indeed, as we await further news, he does even get to perform.

Israel is the one name we haven't mentioned but need to. The performance was good but not exceptional so I cannot understand why the odds of Eden Golan winning the whole thing have dropped to such low levels. At one point she had become the favourite! It is a nice enough song and she is a good singer but it is not brilliant or particularly outstanding. Indeed, I have tended to assume that this year is most definitely not a year when you would expect Israel to win with so much apparent anti-Israel sentiment around the world. It is at a stupidly vicious level in some places too and in Malmo very substantial protests are taking place with pro-Palestine supporters making a lot of noise and grabbing headlines. I do seriously wonder who is organising these protests and that perhaps it is not so much about Israel or Hamas but more about causing friction and dissent and weakening Western governments, keeping them occupied with all this nonsense while sowing seeds for sympathy with a hard-Left stance by future candidates for government.

So why is Israel now second favourite? Do the bookies know something that we don't about just how many votes Israel received in this 2nd Semi Final? We don't get the results until after it's all over but I am sure they still sneak through security. Clearly the numbers must have taken the bookies by surprise for the odds to be cut so dramatically. As they were in the same competition as Switzerland it may be that the Swiss votes were substantially lower than expected too and so the win comes down to between just Croatia and Israel on those numbers. I just still don't see Israel winning. Ukraine had a huge sympathy vote - and rightly so in many respects - when russia trampled over their borders and raped and pillaged and burned and destroyed many towns and villages. The sympathy, that I gauge from the amount of protests amongst the Eurovision crowd and generally, is with Palestine people this time, not Israel. It might have been on 8 October or even a few days after the despicable acts by Hamas in Palestine's name but since then Israel have taken some pretty heavy-handed action and must have lost a lot of that 'sympathy' vote. There are still many hostages being held by Hamas and the events of 7 October still hurt Israel but I don't see any positive impact for Israel in Eurovision 2024. I do admire the courage of Eden Golan and wish her well. I wouldn't mind if Israel won, in fact, as that would show the world that, despite all the quite terrible protests, there is a majority who still feel they were right to try and eliminate Hamas and those who support their evil activities from this planet. But I don't think that will happen.

Eurovision 2024: Semi Final 1

 Tonight the first group of nations will be performing and this will be the first that the public see of their 'real' chances as they take to the live stage instead of just being in a much-rehearsed video, auto-tuned recording or, at the other extreme. some poorly-produced party acts at various venues beforehand.

We can confidently expect Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Ireland to qualify and, regrettably, idiots will vote for the awful Finland's Windows 95 man too. No-one else has a hope in hell of winning so it's pretty pointless to worry too much about who else gets through.

Serbia was the one nation in the rest that I originally thought had a good song but its chances have been at 1000-1 for a long time now so clearly the singer hasn't done very well other than in the video.

Cyprus have a pretty girl and excellent dancer who one would expect to get through but it seems her song is very much like another track released before so no-one is giving her a great deal of love. Just because she can sing and dance well, though, I'd quite like to see Cyprus qualify, at least.

Australia's performers and stage crew have come a long way so it's a shame to send them back to the other side of the world where it's autumn and getting chilly but they really have a rubbish entry that does not deserve to be heard again.

Slovenia have a smart singer, Raiven, who is said to be a witch but she'll need no special spells to get through, just a few more votes than the handful that most of her other remnant competitors will receive. 

Moldova have made virtually ever Final they've gone for and always seem to do far better with the public than anyone ever expects. So, despite their 1000-1 odds, my guess is that they'll make it though once more.

Iceland have been popular at Eurovision ever since they didn't win in COVID times and, of course, due to the excellent film. Goodness knows what happened this year, however, with a dreadful woman singing notes that I don't recognise in a very messy performance.

Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Poland and Portugal just leave me with nothing to say. They're just not tracks I would ever want to play again. Not as bad as Iceland or Australia but just boring or of no consequence whatsoever. Poland have a lot of voters so maybe that will get them through. Having Azerbaijan and Armenia in the same show could be troublesome so someone may fiddle the figures to keep Azerbaijan out as Armenia are pretty sure to qualify on Thursday. On the other hand, Baku bosses have pots of money to help their nation get its name on the screen so it really is anyone's guess. Whatever the case it won't matter much.

So, if I have to pick 10 to qualify it will be:

Croatia | Ukraine | Lithuania | Finland | Ireland | Cyprus | Moldova | Slovenia | Serbia | Poland

Update:

OK 8/10 isn't too bad!

Through to Saturday's Final are:

Croatia | Ukraine | Lithuania | Finland | Ireland | Cyprus | Slovenia | Serbia | Portugal | Luxembourg

Particularly strong performances by Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia and Portugal, the last one earning their place although still definitely not a winner. Ireland were pretty good but could have been presented better by the camera people and I am not so sure the dress stripping worked. However, you did get the genuine sense that they could actually win, everyone else fading slightly in comparison for one reason or another. Ukraine were divine and if they can reproduce that quality then they must be contenders. Croatia remain favourites, though, with a very professional performance and one really does have to hope that they steal many of the slightly Eurostuff votes from the awful Finland and Netherlands to keep them out of the running whilst not getting too many.

The Jury votes will have gone mainly to Portugal, Serbia and Ukraine.

Eurovision 2023

 It's Eurovision time again and, at last, we have all the entries released for the competition.

As usual there are some terrible attempts at a song and most of these have already received the dreaded 1000-1 odds and I shall not even bother to mention them. At the other end of the talent spectrum, however, there are some decent entries which deserve a few plays.

The big news, I suppose, is that Loreen, Sweden's winner in 2014 with the wonderful Euphoria, is back this year and is, by some margin, the favourite at the moment. She is a good performer and you just know that she will not miss a step or a note on stage either so I cannot imagine that she'll not be in the Top 5 at the end, scoring heavily with both judges for the performance and the public amongst which she has many fans who'll vote for anything she does. The winner? Maybe. I'd like to say definitely not but she has the whole package and all I can fault is that the song is not Euphoria. It doesn't stick in your mind like that did. It doesn't last. But that may not matter on the night.

Last year's winners, Ukraine, have a reasonable enough entry but it's no winner on its own merits. They'll do well, I think, again this year with many people just wanting to help the country after what will have been a year and a quarter of devastation and upset. With many millions now resident in countries other than their own there will be many votes being dialled in so they'll be up there - but Top 10 rather than a win.

The United Kingdom came second last year with the excellent Sam Ryder's Spaceman and we do seem to have found ourselves again after years of mediocrity. Mae Muller is another new person to us all but she is modern and has a great song that suits Eurovision. Many people expect this year to have a female winner and I'd like to say she stands a chance. The bookmakers don't, putting her a predicted 8th at 65-1, well out of the usual range for a possible winner. However, it is quite early days still and I shall not write her off on the grounds of her odds yet. If she can perform the song well live then, as predicted, she'll be Top 10 and I'm inclined to make her one of my possible winners. It's nice to say that again about a UK entry! I also believe the world takes a better view of the UK now and is more prepared to vote for us than might have been the case a few years ago.

Finland have one of the dreadful songs that isn't rated 1000-1 but, in fact, nearer 6-1 as the second favourite. It's not something that I can see a lot of people liking and it will almost certainly get forgotten afterwards but I'll accept that it has some catchy Cha Cha Cha lines which will get some votes. It's quite heavy too and a change from all the pop singer girls. Bookmakers are seldom massively wrong, though, and this is being talked about a lot so I guess it'll be another Top 10.

Norway are at 23-1 with a quite dramatic woman singing about Queen of Kings and belting it out big time. It's Eurovision and, in the absence of many other big songs it will garner votes from those who like this style. I'm not at all sure about her hitting all the right notes, though, so much will depend on the rehearsals as to whether Norway stay in the Waiting Room - what I call that area between possible winners and mere hopefuls. I don't see a win for Norway at all. Even Top 10 could be a struggle.

Spain are also dramatic with the strangely titled EAEA which is not exactly a sing-a-long number this year. It's a strong performance, though, with plenty of Balkan-sounding noises to help pull in some more votes. Spain either do very well or very badly. This year I see them doing very well but not quite winning.

Israel have a good pop song to rival Mae Mullers. It's something about a Unicorn and runs along nicely. I reckon if something like this is going to win then it'll be Mae Muller who gets the more votes of these two. But Israel deserve a Top 10 this year.

Austria have a bit of fun with Who The Hell Is Edgar? and a song all about Edgar Allan Poe which is quite extraordinary and also very catchy. Whether the world at large will get the meaning of the clever lyrics I don't know but it's a nearly-pop song with a twist that often does well at Eurovision so another Top 10 contender in my book.

Moldova always seem to have a mass of support out there in the public voting land but don't get much from the juries as a rule. this year I reckon they should do better with the juries and they do have a decent and catchy number which ought to help them maintain a good record of positions in this competition. They might even win the thing. With the bookies giving them odds of 250-1 at the moment that's quite a statement to make but there you go. If they do, remember I told you first. It's a bloke singing on his own this year and there aren't the usual sexy girls or references to excite us or offend others but it's all about some guy wanting to 'marry' some girl in the open air under the moon and stars and maybe even the sun too. All good stuff and no doubt some crazy costumes at least

Italy is one of my own favourites this year and I would give the guy a chance of winning. At nearly 200-1 as I write, having increased every day, it would seem that the bookies know something that I don't. The song and his performance are excellent and it is a powerful number, almost unique this year which has to mean it has something extra going for it. If you want a ballad, this is a good one, sung well and it is very, very Italian which I think voters like a lot. So why it is failing in the betting market I do not know. I'm going to stick with it as a possible victor.

I am not going to bother writing about any of the others as they all much of a muchness and not at all memorable or likely to win, with one exception and that is Ireland. They are verging on the 1000-1 area at 910-1 as I write and no-one has come back from those sort of odds. Why? I think people have looked at the two groups for Semi Finals 1 and 2 and concluded that, with Ireland in a tough Group headed by Sweden, there is a distinct chance that they will not actually qualify for the Final. It would be very sad if that were to be the case as the song is very much the sort of song that should be in the competition. A real pop song with lyrics which work well for Eurovision. Yes, it's commercial and I do have a problem with it reminding me very much of One Direction at times, specially the We Are Young, er, I mean One, bit!! I wonder whether Louie Walsh was involved this year? Anyway, never mind the similarity, Ireland should be in the competition Final and they should be back in the Top 5 again. No-one seems to think they stand a chance but I'm staying with them too and hoping everyone else is proved wrong.

So that's 11 tracks that compete for the Top 10. If I had to choose one that doesn't make it I'd say Spain today.

Full results breakdown for Eurovision 2021

 

A very open competition and unfortunate groupings for some.

2021 looks like being the most polarised competition I can remember. There is a clear dividing line with 7 countries almost certain to make the Final, 13 who will scrape through and the 6 who will be there anyway because they're either hosting it (The Netherlands) or paying for it (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom).

The bookies have Switzerland and Malta as favourites, with Bulgaria, France, Italy and Sweden with a chance of success. 

Switzerland's entry is good, a very beautifully produced number by a talented young fellow with serious Eurovision qualities in terms of boxes that need to be ticked to appeal to the judges and the public. If you think that this year will follow 2019 with a smart ballad by a single male then Switzerland is the first choice.

Spain also have a really first class singer and song but it is quite inexplicably out at over 600-1 which seems to be pretty clear evidence that no-one agrees with me and someone must know something about how badly he will perform on the night to warrant such pessimistic odds as these.

If you think we need a large girl who isn't white and blonde and with a statement to make about what guys can and can't do then Malta fits that bill for you. It's an unpleasant number both to listen to as well as watch but Israel won with almost the same thing in 2019 so that's probably why Malta are now going to be in the Final too and get lots of points from people who like Statements and Issue songs.

It has been quite a change this year with most of the rest of the tracks that we're likely to hear more than once not trying too hard to tell us what to do or not to do, whether that may be to women or the planet. 

Germany are making a statement but it's more timeless and not part of a movement. The guy just says that he doesn't like hate. Period. Unfortunately for Germany he doesn't say a great deal else throughout the song and they're out at a similarly massive 500-1 at the time of writing. Bearing in mind that both Spain and Germany are in the Final and so will each be one of only 26 that could actually win, those odds seem pretty wild and punters are wiggling a middle finger in the direction of Germany's entry.

Belarus have made a statement that no-one likes very much, apart from, I guess, their President and his pals but we don't have to worry as that will not make it anyway and isn't likely to be prime time viewing. Just take a look at the video and see the expression on the band's faces. Well, if you do then that'll probably massively increase the numbers who do view it outside Belarus and give them some hope that we're interested. So don't bother. Just believe me. It's politically-expired rubbish.

Bulgaria have the talented and popular (in Bulgaria) Victoria performing one of her own songs and you can even listen to her new album while you're at it. The song is fairly average but Bulgaria have developed in Eurovision a sort of East-West merger of fans and they often come close nowadays with some genuinely good tracks and modern singers. They could sneak through. It is one of those years when someone with a lot of average points may well beat those who get twelves or zeros (which camp I put Malta in this year).

Italy go a bit more wild then they have before with an impressive rock group, Italian-style rap, and I mean style as the guy is superb, even though I have no idea what he's saying. I nearly always love Italy's Eurovision entries these days and they definitely deserve respect. They will do well but I don't see it winning.

France, on the other hand, might. Theirs is a marvellous song called Voilà and very naturally and pleasantly performed by Barbara Pravi who is very French and it's reminiscent of the Portugal winner. there is something of a theme developing that you may have noticed! France do have a habit of falling at the final hurdle and fine songs don't quite deliver the same magic when they try to do them live. I feel Mme Pravi will not let her country down though and if it is to be a day of averages then she stands a good chance.

Sweden will be in the Final because Sweden always are in the Final. I don't think they should be this year as the song and its delivery are very ordinary and unimaginative, despite all the efforts made for months on end to select their entry. 

Lithuania have a group called Roop that looked very weird last year but who, for some reason only known to Eurovision aficionados and maybe people from Lithuania, became very popular with a catchy little, and otherwise pretty pathetic, number almost designed for Eurovision, the group too with their mustard suits and strange dancing. The bloke looks old enough to know better but there you go. Once again we have a catchy little, and otherwise pretty pathetic, number, mustard suits and odd dancing by a bald bloke who should know better. Yes, it'll be Top 10.

Iceland may well have won last year. There was a lot of hope and expectation for their entry this year, much hyped by charming videos where we could get to know the group, the family and kids. Unfortunately, the release has been disappointing. OK, but not something that, in itself, will get votes. The group will, though. they are a sort of phenomenon and may still win on personality alone.

These are the countries, then that the bookies and punters expect to stand a chance of winning this year. You'll have gathered that none are by any means certain to do more than make the Final 20 + 6. But after them the odds lengthen to the extent where seriously big fortunes can be made if anyone else wins. 

I've mentioned 11 countries so far and they include two with odds over 500. Who else is (a) likely to make the Final and (b) has a decent entry? Which 11 of the rest will join the other four automatic finalists? This is, unfortunately, complicated by the groupings and some very bad stuff will get through and some very good stuff won't.

Group 1 is full of countries that are expected to get through and that's going to be really tough on some. Cyprus and Romania should make it. Cyprus have a great pop song. It does sound terribly similar to Lady Gaga's Alexandro and if I were Cyprus I'd prepare to defend a legal action in this respect if they appear to be likely to do well. In my mind, this is a classic Eurovision winner that comes second and that's probably what will happen this year too. It will get lots of votes and will be a hit too. Romania's entry is a quite moody number, slightly similar to, but not as memorable as, Bulgaria's entry. Expect votes to divide between the two, which might wreck both their chances on the night. Neither will be easy to perform well. But Romania have another good entry that might scrape into the Final.

The others in Group 1 with a likely place are Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Croatia and Ukraine. Croatia is highly commercial with a commercial Tik Tok title even. It's a bit dated, though, but just about deserves a place. Ukraine's entry is almost the exact opposite (commercially-wise) with a weird folk tune and strange vocals. It's ruddy infectious, though, and if it does make it through then it'll attract a lot of attention. They've won before with strange vocals. This is a serious entry and deserves to make the Final. Norway don't. Any bloke dressed as an angel singing a decidedly average song is taking the piss now. They should get nul points but won't. Russia is an unpleasant number from some woman who may or may not be making a statement. I don't know. I don't like it. She shouldn't be in the Final. But it's Russia so she will be. Azerbaijan is another version, to all intents and purposes of their 2020 attempt. It's still poor and very dated. But Russia will back them as well a lot of other countries' juries who don't want to upset the men in Baku.

As a result of the split, Australia and Israel are unlikely to make it which will be a huge disappointment to the enthusiastic new 'honorary European nation', Australia. Both countries have, to my mind, better songs and performances than many who will make it but the voting numbers and favourites don't help them. Worst affected, though, will be poor Ireland. They have a super entry, very well-performed too by someone who can sell records and would be popular given half a chance. It's catchy and drives along from the start, highly memorable but Ireland just don't get the votes these days. If by some magic they do scrape through then watch out for it.

In Group 2, Finland, San Marino, Moldova and Greece ae expected to complete the finalists being voted through. Finland have a heavy metal band who sound very competent and they'll get plenty of support as there's no-one quite like them. Only Italy can take votes from them really. I can't imagine them winning - they're a kind of real Lordi and no-one really likes a real Lordi. Or fat ugly blokes putting their faces in the camera and telling us to put our middle fingers up. Up? Up where, I wonder. Don't tell the German bloke, OK.

San Marino in the Final? Unbelievable? Nearly. It's rubbish and may well make way for someone else except, unlike Group 1, in Group 2 there is no obvious candidate to get more votes! You may see Austria or Portugal scrape in and we can say farewell once again to San Marino but they will have sympathy and a bit of fun going for them. Remember, it is Eurovision.

Moldova do what Moldova does best. Sex. Pretty girl. Nice legs. All quite 1980s and inappropriate, to use the current jargon, but I would almost miss Moldova's antics in Eurovision. And they nearly always do a lot better than anyone imagines they will.

Greece, like Cyprus in Group 1, should just make it through. They deserve to be there and have a good song. It's a pop song, a little dated, perhaps, in comparison to some of the others from Bulgaria and Romania but it is well sung, well-written and, if well-performed too it will bring some cheer and applause from whoever is around on the night. One of the more attractive girls on the stage this year.

So that's it. I think I have mentioned every country that either is expected to be in the Final or who should be. It is a very open field this year and predictions are extremely difficult. If the Groups pan out as expected then some really good acts simply won't make it through and that will leave a clear run for whoever's left. Out of them I feel that, if people are tired of Statement Songs and don't want another dreary ballad either, no matter how good the singer, then it could be the year for Italy or France. If we want to be cheered and dance a bit then lets vote for Cyprus or Greece. If you want weird, it as to be Ukraine or even little Lithuania.

Oh, I didn't mention the United Kingdom. No. No point. It's not good.

Eurovision: UK hasn't a clue.

What on Earth has happened to the UK's approach to the Eurovision Song Contest? For a period of ten years from 1967 to 1977 we finished in the Top 4 every year. With just two exceptions, we have been in the Top 10 every year since the competition started until 1999. We had entries which were commercial, written to catch attention and appeal to the wide European audience and, whilst often tacky and not something I would rush out to buy,  we would watch the Final with valid expectations that our nation would be in competition near the top of the scoreboard.

It wasn't the best music, it was embarrassingly designed to be remembered by international juries on occasion too, but Eurovision fans relished it and we generally forgave the writers, performers and Terry Wogan made us smile. We did well, year after year. It was British music which dominated the charts across Europe as our writers and producers were simply the best at reaching the record-buying audience. We may have forgotten most tracks soon after the Final but that didn't matter. Britain had done well.

Since 1999, though, the UK have finished in the Top 10 just twice. Twice in 20 years. Indeed, it gets worse - on nine occasions we haven't even made the Top 20, finishing either last or with just a handful of points from one or two of the 42 or so countries voting.

It was not only international juries who didn't like what they heard; few recent tracks have even made the UK Top 20. Blue managed it but some didn't even make the Top 100 which required little more than your relatives to have bought a couple of copies each. We thought our entries were dreadful too!

We simply have to blame the BBC for this farce. There is a committee that sits in a room and decides how an artist and song will be chosen, how they will be presented to us, the public, and how a final decision is made as to who and what will represent the United Kingdom at the Eurovision Song Contest. And they have got it wrong, year after year. Yes, there may have been a choice for the public but either the format of the show or the overall choice itself has been poor so people have either not bothered voting or had to choose between the poor and the uninspiring so whatever we may have preferred didn't stand much chance anyway.

We have hundreds of fabulous performers, groups and even more brilliant writers. Our singles charts may not be full of commercial numbers as they once were by virtue of the changes in how charts and compiled and the very few 'sales' now needed to get into them anyway, but the album charts still show how good we can be.

Every week there is a stand-out release from someone somewhere and I often think to myself at around this time each year 'why couldn't this be our UK Eurovision entry?'

Now, those faceless ones in the BBC committee will no doubt tell us they asked X, Y and Z to do the honours but they weren't interested. I doubt they made much effort, though, and who on Earth could have really thought that either the ancient Engelbert Humperdinck or ageing Bonnie Tyler would represent UK well? From 2014 then, after these two seriously embarrassed us and themselves with lowly close to bottom finishes, the committee decides to introduce us to people at almost the opposite end of the spectrum; young people few of us will have ever heard of.

This approach started with Molly and continued with Electro Velvet, Jo and Jake, Lucie Jones and SuRie. Nice enough people, all of them, and, with the exception of Jo and Jake, excellent singers but the songs were just plain poor and the performances uninspiring and forgettable. Interestingly, SuRie performed in this year's decision show and did a completely different version of Storm which might, had she done that last year, have put the UK on the left hand side of the board. Our positions in these years? Out of 25 or 26: 17th, 24th, 24th, 15th and 24th!! Terrible. And the BBC Committee seems to think this is a good way to decide? This year we have Michael Rice with Bigger Than Us. He can sing, although I have my doubts about whether the song is ideal for him with a start that's too low and a silly ending. It'll finish in the 20s again unless the other entries are particularly bad this year.

The way we decided was really flawed. First the only airing the tracks may have had that the public might have heard before would have been occasional features on Ken Bruce's Radio 2 show in the week. Maybe they got a couple of other plays but most people would have heard them for the first time on Friday evening, an hour or so before being asked to vote.

Secondly, we get three songs performed by two artists in quite different ways. That, in itself is not wrong but it is odd. The writer, presumably, had some idea as to how he or she wanted to project whatever emotion was in the words and one, if not both, of the artists will have messed that up big time! It also confused us. Giving us two interpretations of one set of lyrics and a tune just makes neither memorable. Add to that the fact that, again, we had a selection of nice people and reasonably good singers but none had much by way of performance history other than a group, Maid, who had each quite a good period in West End or similar shows. The others we might have remembered from X Factor or Britain's Got Talent but they hadn't done very well really. Michael Rice did, at least, win his show but I can't remember the name and I am not sure it was particularly big in the ratings. He was probably the best choice out of a strange selection but the poor fellow is going to disappoint us, however hard he tries.

He got selected in a public vote which I suspect only reached just a few thousand of us. In a really strange show, three people, Rylan Clark-Neal, a girl from the Saturdays and another chap I didn't recognise decided which of the two versions of each song would be put to us to vote on. That was very weird and you really did feel sorry for the people who were rejected in such a farcical way. The three 'judges' were sound enough - I have a lot of respect for Rylan and he gets Eurovision, for sure. I just wish that he had had more say in earlier days and I imagine that his enthusiasm may well have brought some other better-known artists into the frame had he been given the chance. Each of the three made sensible enough comments but they had about five minutes to decide and you just felt that the whole thing was a bit silly.

We need to get serious about planning to win Eurovision in 2020. The UK has to make a great impression across Europe, with a great band or star singer who can almost guarantee to get votes just because whatever they do is good and performing to big audiences is just what they do. Surely one or other of our major acts will take a chance and work with the best in the music promotion industry. Bring in Simon Cowell or, at least, his company advisors, if necessary. If that idea offends some of our established talent then let them plan the whole thing themselves - I can imagine people like Coldplay having more than enough understanding and experience already and we could just leave them to it, maybe just voting on which song, of a selection they offer, song they do.

The BBC can continue to do the promotion too in their own way as only the BBC can do but not exclusively. We'll give them the credit if we do well but, essentially, the whole job needs really to be in the hands of real professionals. People who know what they're doing, who can sell stuff, who can write stuff and who can win.

Eurovision: France tick all the boxes except the song one.

Selecting Bilal Hassani, who we probably won't get to call Bill, France have ticked almost all of the Eurovision boxes:

• eyebrows /
• gender-free /
• blonde /
• glasses /
• teeth /
• asian name /
• cute video /

Unfortunately, they forgot about the song and someone who can actually sing. This is a very average performance at best with all sorts of notes missed and breathing in odd places. Little to recommend it but, of course, this is Eurovision and the weird and the PC do well. So France may have to be considered a contender after all.

Eurovision: Uk's 3rd idea: Sweet Lies

Not so sweet, really. Kerrie-Anne belts out the song like a Gloria Gaynor number with a bit of Beyoncé thrown in for good measure. It's commercial and drives along with a hint of foot-tapping but it is almost instantly forgettable.

Anisa puts a very different interpretation on the track and almost seems to plead with us to vote for her version. If Kerrie-Anne was forgettable then this never even started to be remembered. Pleasant but really not anywhere near good enough for such a contest as this. I am not even sure it would make the Top 20 in the UK, never mind convince an international audience.

Very disappointing.

It has to be the Maid version of Freaks for me. But that is hardly a winner.

Eurovision: Uk's 2nd idea - Freaks. Hmmm.

Jordan Clark and a group called Maid have a go at performing a track called Freaks in the BBC's second idea for Eurovision this year.

Jordan was an also-ran in a group in Britain's Got Talent and his effort is tedious. Surprisingly so for something called Freaks. You expect more. Very average and it has a strange bit near the end which sounds like the writers were trying too hard. His track has an awful lot of other people in the backing. Sounds like more than the 5 allowed for the stage.

Maid do a much better version and sound excellent. They each have credits in several stage shows in the West End and seem altogether more professional and less likely to collapse on the big stage in May. It's still nothing special and I feel it is not something that is going to do that well other than collect a few useful votes from the politically correct. It has the same odd phasing bit near the end which simply has to go. A nice performance by the three girls but I don't know that it will be good enough.

We'll see. The best so far.

Eurovision: UK's first idea. 'Bigger Than Us'.

Michael Rice is not a complete unknown, winning the TV series 'Altogether Now' and having busked for a while too is experienced. The song, though, is one of those you think is great t the start but then gets boring before it has even finished.

Bigger Than Us has a choir in the backing track which I cannot see being allowed on the live Eurovision performance so not too sure how that will work. It would need something like that.

The end goes wrong in my view and sort of loses the plot completely and you just don't get that satisfied feeling from a track that is needed for Eurovision. there's almost no temptation to sing or tap along either. I got really fed up with the word 'bigger' too.

So, no, that's no a winner.

Holly Tandy reached the Live Shows in 2017 X Factor, finishing a respectable 7th. Her version of this track is easier listening and, for me, more appealing and a touch more commercial. For all that, though, it will fare no better in Holly's hands.

Eurovision: Spain start the season with new fashion statement

Spain bring us the first major competitor for the 2019 Eurovision title with this cheerful song from someone called Miki.

I can't see Miki or the backing group having much influence on fashion, judging by their appearance in this selection show. It's a sort of laid-back early 90s look with little or no co-ordination. Now that may well be a first for Eurovision!

The song's a catchy number and, despite its 70s feel, should help Spain rise above their recent pretty dire placings. However, I have nearly always predicted that they'll do well (other than a terrible Do It For Your Lover entry the year before last) but they have had pretty similar placings to the UK for many years with only Ruth Lorenzo getting them to the left hand side of the board in 2014.

Eurovision: all change!

Rehearsals have been underway for three days now and seeing people doing their thing for real on the big stage as opposed to smart, edited recordings or small stage party performances has really made a difference.

Whilst Israel still remain clear favourite and their Netta did hold her place in her first performances, things have changed dramatically in the places beneath her.

The two major advances have been Norway and France, both of whom have produced superbly professional and relaxed rehearsals so far, streets ahead of many others. This inspires confidence and has pushed them to 2nd and 3rd places respectively. I think Norway will always do well with the lovely Rybak but this is not a winning song. Top 10, sure, but not a winner, so expect his odds to fall away again once some others - hopefully some others will - look a bit more like winners themselves.

France have a cool number that strolls along pleasantly and is quite engaging. It reminds me of a Dutch entry by the Common linnets a few years back. That did well and this will too but, again, it's Top 10 for sure but not a No. 1.

Bulgaria, previously Israel's main competition, faded away due to a drab and dreary performance. They may get the notes right with their very experienced individual singers (from nations other than Bulgaria) but something is lacking and that show won't appeal to voters as it stands.

The Czech Republic's singer fell down and has injured his back but we believe that he'll be back and he is determined to perform. He remains a good prospect but has lost his 3rd place, occasionally a 2nd place, and is now around the lower part of the Top 10.

Estonia have remained pretty constant throughout all this. Also competing for 2nd a couple of weeks ago they lost a lot of support when it was feared that the dress wouldn't be working. What nonsense. This superb singer doesn't need any gimmicks and I even think the emphasis on the dress thing has actually lost her some support. She has performed very reliably in rehearsals so far and is certain to make a first class job of things on the night. I can see her staying very much in contention when the enthusiasm for some other acts, currently showing more popularity, subsides.

Sweden have never been in the running really so far. They've been very much sitting on their own, well out of the leaders' range but also well in front of the rest. That has changed although I don't think they have done a rehearsal yet - they are just being assumed to be better than some who have not sounded good and have now risen to a predicted 7th place. Perhaps a really solid performance in next rehearsals could bring Sweden into contention after all. I doubt it. I think they've benefited from the jitters punters are feeling about some others.

The major disappointment so far has been Jessica for Australia. She had been up there with France and Norway, definitely in 2nd place or 3rd place most of the week but now falls away miserably, struggling to stay Top 10. She was just uninspiring, lost on the stage and the whole things imply didn't work. Some smart guys who know about these things have made some sound suggestions that she needs a party atmosphere up there; she needs a brighter, more cheerful staging and then she, with some company up there, can enthuse the audience again as she has shown she can do in closer encounters. I haven't given up on her as many punters appear to have done but she has a lot to do.

Saara Aalto also failed to build on great marketing and her own personality. Her performance was disappointing and seemed ridiculously complex and confusing. At one point she was tied to some wheel and had trouble freeing herself. She is also not a natural dancer and the moves interfered with her delivery. Both she and Jessica could be contenders to defeat the big girl from Israel but they'll have to work hard in their next performances to convince people. There will also soon be the performance for the juries which are crucial to get right as they actually count for votes!

Spain's two lovers have continued to hang around the 50-1 mark, as have Italy (now moving up to compete with Australia) and Belgium (dropping down).

Germany and Ukraine have shot up although I feel both are just  benefiting from good solid performances but these will not translate into votes or a better position in the end. They may have advanced but they're still only around 15th.

Greece has been another big disappointment so far. At one time she was really thought of as a contender to win but no more. Instead it will be Cyprus who carry the Greek voters' banner. Their entry is a feisty dancer and her performance will certainly be hot. She has attracted a lot of interest and her support has rocketed her from 'may just qualify' to a predicted Top 10 finish, overtaking Australia on the way. Personally, I don't think she will have the wide appeal she'll need and may drop back nearer the day. Whether Greece itself will revive I cannot say.

Moldova, as ever these days, entertain us and once more they have come from being 500-1 outsiders who may not even have qualified to a modestly brilliant 90-1 and I reckon they'll be there in the Final. If they are they'll do well. They just put a smile on people's faces and everyone gives them a few votes.

Hungary's heavy rock group look set to qualify and rehearsals went well. They can certainly fill the stage, no trouble. They could even be one to watch. Politics may stop them winning, though. They'll qualify, I am fairly sure and that will throw a few spanners in the works.

Despite very dull performances so far, the Netherlands and Denmark will get through, as will Russia, just, I think. Yulia has not been very good but she has done a lot better than the dreadful Russian performance which was the last we'd seen. She'll get the traditional support from friendly nations but not a great deal else.

Finally, the world may be waking up to little Lithuania's entry. They have been lying around in the 200-1 mark for weeks, ever since the betting started really. Finally, a nice rehearsal has shown that this girl is good and the simple song and presentation are worth watching and she has made it to nearer 100-1 and that, coupled with a poor effort by Belarus so far, has just made her 10th in her group. Whether she can hold that position and make the Final, though, is not certain. She'd have to overtake Belgium, Austria or Greece if Belarus recover. So her only hope is that Belarus don't recover.

This week has totally transformed the betting table but really I am not so sure it has changed the Top 10 that much. My feeling is that Jessica will recover and they'll fix stuff so she'll be Top 5 material again. As for challenges to Israel at this time, I can see none that are obvious. This year could be the year of a big surprise. Keep an eye on some of those that seem well out of it at the moment. And don't write off Finland just yet.

I even wonder whether Spain's lovers might not make a run for the top in the present market. Or Hungary to do a Finland of some years ago?

Little Lithuania still look like 11th

Once again I shall take a look at the way prices have been moving over the week with the bookies. It is clear that some acts have been making a good impression and others not going down at all well while they have been doing whatever it is that they are doing in this strange period preceding official rehearsals.

The most obvious beneficiary of the week's activity has been France's entry. A week or so ago they were grouped with Norway and Sweden in the upper 20s to lower 30s, around the lower regions of the predicted Top 10. Then during this last few days they have halved those odds which is quite an achievement and at one point yesterday they were in equal 3rd place with the Czech Republic. They are at 5th position as I write but battling with the Czech Republic, Australia and Estonia for that Top 3 place.

France's gain has been largely Sweden's loss. Sweden is still in the Top 10 but that is mostly because there is a massive gap between them and the next group who have yet to break away from odds in the upper 40s to 60s. At 38 now, though, if any one of the group below, which comprises Greece, Belgium, Spain and Finland, with Italy and Austria not far away either, were to show major signs of improvement then they could fall out of the Top 10 completely. Clearly, the Swedish singer is not doing well. It never has struck me as a particularly appealing or memorable entry from the nation who almost seemed to own the Competition until now.

Saara Aalto continues to make a good impression in interviews in 100 languages all around the globe but, so far, her charm has not done a great deal for her expected finishing position of just outside the Top 10. I have a suspicion that she will actually edge into the Top 10 on the night as some others will fail to match her enthusiasm and reliability on the big stage.

Austria and Denmark have made big advances on the leading groups. Whilst still way out of the running at 60 and 80 this is a good improvement on their 100+ ratings before and both are at their lowest odds so far.

The last country to show distinct improvement is Russia. I guess it couldn't have been much worse! I am guessing that Yulya has made some better performance efforts since and, whilst not exactly inspiring anyone as the odds remain way out at over 300-1, that's a lot better than they were when it looked as if Russia might not even qualify. As it is, they're in a group where a cat howling could probably qualify if it was vaguely in tune half the time.

Out of favour with the bookies are Belarus, Germany, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Latvia, Ireland. When I say out of favour I mean they have all reached their highest ever odds since the betting started. Obviously something hasn't been going well and the bookies spies have noticed or punters are laying them off heavily now. Azerbaijan are surprising in this group. Their song is pretty commercial and I would have expected them to be certain qualifiers. Again, something must have gone wrong. Maybe some oil money will enhance their predicted bottom place and that is assuming they qualify - which I doubt at the moment.

Finally, down in the 1000-1 department, and that might as well be 10,000-1 for all the difference it would make to people wanting to back them, are Croatia, Iceland, Serbia, Slovenia, Poland, Georgia, Malta, Montenegro and poor old San Marino. Actually San Marino are not at all poor and could do themselves a favour next year by actually having someone from their own country to sing for them. They don't seem to be liked much and these singers do not come across very well at all. The other nations in the 1000-1 Club have simple chosen crap songs or artists who simply are not performing well so far.

In the fierce competition to qualify in Group 1, it still looks like Belarus may hang on and get that coveted 10th place, leaving little Lithuania lying in 11th and not making it through. I live in hope, though. Cyprus, in 9th place in that group, are also not exactly doing brilliantly with their odds hardly moving from the 130 to 140 range. Lithuania need to overtake one of Belarus or Cyprus to get through. The next in the Group 1 ranking is Finland and I can't see Saara being caught by a complete unknown singing on her own with no big effects or shoes.

Something's happening in Lisbon and little Lithuania might just make it

Lots of movement in the odds today, especially late afternoon / early evening. I believe the acts are now in Lisbon and I can only assume that several are practising and getting reviewed by someone somewhere and it is having quite an impact on expectations.

Whilst Israel's awful track remains favourite, the odds have slipped from under 3 to nearer 3.5 which is more than they've moved for the last few weeks.

The Czech Republic guy is clearly going down well as his odds have substantially narrowed and are now matching Bulgaria's again, indeed there is quite a gap opening. Bulgaria seemed to go down well at some other parties recently but people's real favourite now seems to be Jessica from Australia who has moved from around 6th to 2nd on occasion and is now certainly neck and neck with the Czech Republic and currently sending Bulgaria down. Before she was battling with Sweden and Belgium but they've sunk, presumably through either no performances or poor ones so far.

Belgium had been one of the main contenders a while ago but not now. One of my tips to win, Estonia, with the operatic performance, are dropping like a stone at the moment so I can only guess that things have not gone well. There was some nonsense about the country not being able to afford the big dress for the performance but I find that pretty ridiculous an excuse. She's still 5th, though, and there is a huge gap between her and the next acts in contention.

Greece I would have expected to do better but they're out there at 50-1 and those are not the odds of a potential winner. Odd. I had expected the good performer and a sound song to be well up there at this stage.

Saara Aalto brought Finland back into the running after some splendid performances in Europe but is now dropping back again. So either her principal also-ran competitors Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Norway have done a much better job since or she has made some mistakes. We'll see soon enough. Normally I'd would trust her to put on a brilliant live act so she cannot be written off yet.

Norway continue to bumble along near the Top 10 with their previous all time greatest winner Alexander Rybek's cheeky how to write a song song. That's about all that's going to happen though. He has performed well and still only managed the lower orders so I don't see that improving much either.

Little Lithuania are in the tough Group 1 and will really struggle to qualify but I do hope they do. The song does stand a chance and will appeal to many as will the girl's personality and simple attraction when viewed against what will undoubtedly be some crazy staging and expensive lighting, arrangements etc. for others. To get to the final, she needs to beat most of Belarus, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Ireland, Armenia or Austria. Someone else reckons she will as her odds, whilst still not exactly encouraging at around 150-1, are better than all but Austria, Belarus and Cyprus. She might just squeeze past Belarus and get in which could make things interesting. If she'd been in Group 2 then she'd walk in as even acts like Hungary and Latvia, currently around 500-1 are predicted to get through.

Group 2 is really bad and Russia will probably be there as even Yulya on a bad day may be better than Iceland on a good one, never mind Georgia, Montenegro, Poland and Slovenia which have no hope whatsoever from what I've heard so far. I shouldn't write off Hungary, by the way. If they do get through they'll be the sole representative of good hard rock and that's bound to pick up some votes for them. A total contrast to everyone else indeed and quite an efficient performance too. If the lead singer gets carried away his voice loses any key and that'll be no good but if he holds it together the song, if you can call it a song, will appeal to quite a tranche of public voters.

Eurovision: UK helps France while Russia struggles in practice shows.

We are now going through that interesting stage of the run-up to the competition when acts start appearing at various shows across Europe and have to perform live. Some are clearly seeing the benefit of this and putting in some impressive, solid performances while others are displaying nerves, poor arrangements or just the simple fact that they may be OK in a recording studio with plenty of time to fix mistakes or add some depth but live? Forget it.

Russia's Yulya made a big mistake with a terrible performance recently and she has not recovered since. It was probably more the fault of the backing singers than it was her and I suppose there is always a chance that she'll be all right on the night but there is even a query as to whether Russia will even qualify this year. If they were in Group 1 then I would say they definitely would not have done, without some background work to persuade the people counting the votes. As it is, they're in the very poor Group 2 and could actually get through still, despite odds of around 400-1 at the time of writing.

Spain's romantic couple haven't been able to reproduce the love, or the notes, quite as well either and their chances seem to have been slipping away although not so badly and there have been signs that they may, after all, be getting their act together again so I am not writing them off. They'll participate anyway as one of the Big Five but I don't see them winning.

Finland's Saara Aalto is doing well in the live gigs. She is a brilliant singer that I remember only too well from the X Factor not that long ago where she finished a good second here in the UK. The bookies have her only just scraping around the Top 10, though, maybe only just making the Top 15. I have a feeling she may surprise us and do better but the song still isn't good enough to win in my view.

Israel's dreadful woman and the song Toy do continue to get the crowds' support wherever she goes and, despite some dodgy singing, I expect her to do well in the public votes which, as we have seen, can make a huge difference. Expect Israel not to be first after the jury votes but to close in and even overtake some of the Top 5 with the second count.

Bulgaria were not impressive in the early days but now are putting on a good show and making more sense of the song too. They're proving popular at the gigs and are making a real effort to get as wide a circulation as they can. After coming second last year, they can see that the No. 1 place is there for the taking. They are now second in the bookies' odds across the board, having overtaken all three of the only other serious contenders at this time, Australia, Czech Republic and Estonia.

Estonia, we're told, are lacking a few grand to pay for the dress they want the opera girl to wear. You know, surely someone can cough up the necessary or just put her on in a simple dress and let her remarkable talent and a great song do the rest. She could still win, in my view, with the sort of stunning performance she can produce. Unfortunately, she has not been obvious at recent shows and that is something she needs to put right. Some familiarity with the song makes a big difference to that public vote, even if it doesn't with the juries.

I do like the effort Australia's Jessica Mauboy is putting in and she bounces on to the stage with enthusiasm and bags of confidence. Provided that she doesn't let that boil over into over-singing, she really should keep that level of popularity and turn it to her advantage. The song starts poorly, low in her register but once we've got past that then she is quite enthralling and the song is very smart for this competition. She is still my own choice to win, being one of the few we would regard as memorable in years to come. These shows are doing her a lot of good and helping her to hold on to her deserved Top 5 predicted finish.

The Czech Republic are likely to do well this year too with their Lie To Me entry which I am convinced steals the sax bits from Moldova's success last year. The performer is a totally natural guy and you just get the feeling he'll put on a good show whatever happens around him.

I mentioned some time ago that the UK entry, SuRie, was clearly the crowd's favourite on her own selection night and I reckon that remarkable affection she engenders in a live show was responsible for her national vote win too. It certainly wasn't the best song or the best performance. She is not predicted to do at all well. Indeed, as things stand, she wouldn't qualify if UK had to go through the Semi Finals like most entries do. She will be there, however, and she is also working hard at the intervening shows across Europe. The most recent, this weekend, saw her stand in for Emilie of the Madame & Monsieur pairing for France. Overnight she learnt the song and put on a really good performance which very much impressed the 3500-strong audience. Not only was she singing another county's entry really well but some parts were in French and after that she did her own song too. There can be no doubt that she is accomplished and a confident performer. I'd love to see her do well and it would be great if her efforts could be remembered and gain her a few extra votes from the juries. I really can't see the song doing well and I fear she'll be on the right hand side of the board when the voting's done but maybe near the top with a little help from our friends.

You'll get 500-1 on the UK winning but unless SuRie stands in for a few more live on the night I can't see that happening.

My own predictions remain pretty much as they were:

Australia or Greece to win, with Estonia still with an outside chance

Israel, Czech republic and Belgrade battling for a place in the Top 5.

Watch out for Moldova and Lithuania, if they get through.

Eurovision 2018: the Top 10

So now that everyone has released their entries it is time to make a start at figuring out which ones we need to pay attention to and which can simply be ignored.

The bookies favourite, and by a big margin, is Israel. I really don't like it. The video is just horrible. It is quite different to anything else, though, and has certainly got people's attention and I can see it holding their attention for some time. We kinda got tired of Italy's entry too early last year and that, together with a poor performance and a correspondingly brilliant performance by the Portugal winner, sealed its fate. I am really hoping the same thing happens this year. There will be a definite limit to the number of times I can watch this woman without feeling ill and it is not a song I will be humming along to. I am hoping so much that a few others perform so ruddy marvellously and she simply puts off enough voters to allow some others to compete for the prize.

Let's look at the others.

The classic pop song this year comes from Australia. The girl Jessica is excellent, confident and this is another great entry from Down Under. Usually I have been a little biased against Australia as it just doesn't seem right somehow having Australia in Eurovision but I am getting used to the idea and, quite frankly, someone needs to beat the annoying woman from Israel on the night. Jessica could do that. My personal second favourite.


My own favourite is Lithuania's entry. Ieva really does seem to care about her song and I like the slight Dolores O'Riordan tone that appears sometimes. Unfortunately, this is way out at over 300-1 at the moment and, with a lot of competition in Group 1, there is a distinct possibility that Ieva won't make it to the final. That will be a pity so I am hoping she captures some other hearts in the Semi Final. To do so she'll need to out perform and out vote Armenia, Azerbaijan and Cyprus and maybe even Finland's Saara Alto. I can't see anyone kicking Azerbaijan out and Saara Alto is doing a great publicity job for Finland so Lithuania have a tough task.



Next we have a remarkable group of very different contenders. First, and most likely to do well, is Estonia's Elina who sings La Forza, a wonderful operatic number but one that keeps your attention and sounds sort of modern still. The notes she reaches are simply phenomenal and I like the straightforward style of presentation, although I suspect there's be a big dress and lights on the night. It is a stunning song and Elina must be the best singer by far. It would be a very worthy winner and set the standards for future years on a more serious level, reflecting Portugal's move last year and building upon it.

The Czech Republic have only recently joined the Eurovision club but this year they should reap some of the benefits with their jazzy number from Mikolas and friends. I swear the sax riff is the same as did so well for Moldova last year! That is probably its best bit and why it is looking quite popular. I don't see it winning, though.

The Netherlands have had some consistently good entries for some time now and this year they have a chap called Waylon who doesn't wail on at all but gives us real guitar strumming Country Rock or Rock Country. It's a driving number that is different and I am sure it will get plenty of support. again, not a winner but a contender for the Top 5.

Spain have two young lovers staring into each others' eyes as they croon and sway. It's very sweet and not a bad song at all. They will certainly get a huge number of televotes as there is something in the chemistry that just makes people go 'aah' and that will often turn into a vote or two. A complete and utter contrast to the Israeli woman. In fact I hope this comes just after the Israeli entry and makes voters forget what they saw. It is one of those entries that may surprise us and win. There are not very many this year.

Another is France with Madame Monsieur and the very simple Mercy. It reminds me of some of the simple Belgian and Dutch entries of the past. Those did well and I feel this will too.

Greece are often popular just for being Greek and reminding people of sunshine and lovely shades of blue. They have also had some great entries in the past but also a few rather dodgy ones. This year it is a goodie. Yianna is a big pop star there and familiar with the big stage. She sings very well and this has a nice traditional feel which we haven't got a great deal of this year amongst the top entries. She is out at 40-1 at the moment but I think those odds will fall considerably once a few more people hear the track.

Denmark always make a good impression on the competition in my view and I have really liked several of their past entries. This year it is a heavy number with what look like five Norse Gods looming in the mist. They sing well, very strongly and it will definitely have some appeal. Not enough to make much difference, though, but you'll probably remember them afterwards.

Norway have brought back Alexander Rybak. And he's singing a song that tells us how to write a song which kinda implies that he knows how to win.Well, he does insofar as he won a few years ago with a splendid track and lots of violin playing. All that gets referenced in the clever show but I don't see it being good enough to beat a few others and voters will think, 'Yes that was nice' but not do a great deal more. He'll get lots of 4s and 5s.

Azerbaijan have the only other commercial pop song. It's quite a good one but no-one wants to go to Baku in 2019. They will get the usual compulsory votes from several neighbours and others who feel obliged for various business reasons so could be up there with the Top 10 team.

Bulgaria, after two excellent years when they were close to winning at times, are well fancied by the bookies at the moment, with a fourth or fifth place envisaged. I don't get it. The song, the singing, the lyrics, none of it works for me at all. I may be missing some magic that will be woven in a live performance but so far it leaves me cold and slightly annoyed at the odd English. It isn't going to win, or, at least I hope not as I haven't got that one covered.

So, assuming Lithuania don't make it, here is my very early prediction for the Top 10 (ignoring Israel):

Australia | Estonia

Spain | France | Greece

Azerbaijan | The Netherlands

Denmark | Czech Republic | Norway

Unless someone puts in the most amazingly better live performance at a Semi Final or re-issues another version of their track, that is it this year. Saara Alto may squeeze in for Finland and someone somewhere will give Israel and Bulgaria bucket loads of votes. Russia too will get close but I don't think even the frail Yulia will be enough to pull in the numbers they usually expect to get. Hers is a decent song but not great. Politics may not help Russia this year either. Nothing wil, i am sory to say, help the United Kingdom's chances either. SuRie may be a nice young lady and was able to influence the crowd well at the show where she was selected. I just can't see he doing the same sufficiently well to get very far at all at the main event. the song simply isn't good enough and just doesn't stand any comparison with the others I've mentioned above. United Kingdom are currently over 400-1 and I fear that's generous. They'll be higher yet.

Hello to Goodbye from Romania. A class performance.

A splendid song from Romania again this year. Excellent singing from the attractive girl lead and if the band can replicate the full sound on the night then this may well get a good number of votes. Here they are doing a live performance so it is clear they'll be capable - something one can never be sure of with autotune and so many tricks in the recorded videos we see for others.

In some ways this may be a bit dated now and it does lack any catchy line you'll remember but for sheer presence and class I'd like to see them make the Top 10.

The Netherlands keep up the good standards, going for country rock this time.

Netherlands seldom disappoint with their entries and here's something else that is good. A rock - country song that is a great relief from everything else we'll be listening to. It is a bit repetitive but I guess that's no problem in Euroland. This chap Waylon looks good and seems pretty competent. On his own on stage he should get a decent number of votes. I can't see this winning but worth watching out for.

Top Ten I say.

Elina sings opera for Estonia. Marvellous entry in an interesting year.

If points were awarded purely for notes and purity of voice then Elina would win hands down in 2018. This may be the first real operatic performance in the competition for some years. a marvellous song, brilliantly sung and this will certainly get many points along the way. I suspect they may be mostly middle numbers, though, and may no add up to enough to win.

Look out for this one, though. I would love to see Elina steal the show from the Israeli woman.

Definitely a year of extremes.