Four-way battle to qualify for Ireland, Azerbaijan, Romania and Belgium

 

There is a real 4-way competition opening up for the Group 1 Semi Final as to who will qualify between Romania, Belgium, Ireland and Azerbaijan.

The 'Groups' may not be numbered correctly as 1 or 2 - I cannot remember which is which in the competition but the countries that make up each Group are correct so bear with me if I have them the wrong way round. The fight still exists.

At the time of writing, and as can be seen above, Romania are predicted to make it but with the slimmest of margins over Belgium which could easily have changed by the time I finish the article! Ireland are not far behind either and have been leading not only the group but, one day, were seen as a better bet than Croatia and Israel! That was just for one day, unfortunately. Well, unfortunately for Ireland and for me as I like their entry a lot. Israel and Croatia have since provided a bit more confidence with the bookies from their rehearsals to date whereas Australia, once expected to make it, have not. The other contenders in this tough, tough group are North Macedonia and Slovenia. No-one is giving Slovenia even a glimpse of a chance and North Macedonia seem to be lacking in friends as their track is very well sung indeed. They seem to be suffering the same fate as Spain, now out at a ridiculous 1000-1 (and it can't get worse than that on Betfair!) with people apparently taking the view that a sad male ballad will not win this year.

The others in Group 1, Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine, Sweden, Russia and Norway, all seem sure to get through. Neither Russia nor Norway should, in my view, but they have their supporters and the bookies' declared chances of success reflect that.

Those four contenders for the remaining place to join Croatia and Israel in the Final have a difficult task. Each has its merits. Romania has been quite well fancied for a while but has recently dipped quite a lot - it's a decent song that could be well-presented and will have appeal, along the lines of Bulgaria, but rehearsals haven't gone well so far.

So the only way in will be for one of Azerbaijan, Belgium or Ireland to take Romania's place. Azerbaijan have a typically hot and sexy number and will look good and definitely have Eurovision appeal and Baku money. You can never discount Azerbaijan in Eurovision. Belgium are the cool guys this year and, in the absence of many cool guys, I am surprised to see them struggling to qualify. They're the most likely to get in as things stand, in my opinion.

Ireland have a track that is a real pop song. You'll be humming it after she finishes. But I don't know how the girl will come across or how well she can perform, whether nerves will show or not. Azerbaijan can hide errors in a glittering outfit and very long legs. Belgium have each other and don't make errors anyway. They're too experienced, perhaps even tediously so. Like Cliff Richard in a fog. 

While I wrote this, Belgium drew equal with Romania. Interesting.

The table above, incidentally predicts the Finalists. At the top are those who are automatically included so it is not a representation of who is likely to win, just who'll get to the Final.

Eurovision 2018: the Top 10

So now that everyone has released their entries it is time to make a start at figuring out which ones we need to pay attention to and which can simply be ignored.

The bookies favourite, and by a big margin, is Israel. I really don't like it. The video is just horrible. It is quite different to anything else, though, and has certainly got people's attention and I can see it holding their attention for some time. We kinda got tired of Italy's entry too early last year and that, together with a poor performance and a correspondingly brilliant performance by the Portugal winner, sealed its fate. I am really hoping the same thing happens this year. There will be a definite limit to the number of times I can watch this woman without feeling ill and it is not a song I will be humming along to. I am hoping so much that a few others perform so ruddy marvellously and she simply puts off enough voters to allow some others to compete for the prize.

Let's look at the others.

The classic pop song this year comes from Australia. The girl Jessica is excellent, confident and this is another great entry from Down Under. Usually I have been a little biased against Australia as it just doesn't seem right somehow having Australia in Eurovision but I am getting used to the idea and, quite frankly, someone needs to beat the annoying woman from Israel on the night. Jessica could do that. My personal second favourite.


My own favourite is Lithuania's entry. Ieva really does seem to care about her song and I like the slight Dolores O'Riordan tone that appears sometimes. Unfortunately, this is way out at over 300-1 at the moment and, with a lot of competition in Group 1, there is a distinct possibility that Ieva won't make it to the final. That will be a pity so I am hoping she captures some other hearts in the Semi Final. To do so she'll need to out perform and out vote Armenia, Azerbaijan and Cyprus and maybe even Finland's Saara Alto. I can't see anyone kicking Azerbaijan out and Saara Alto is doing a great publicity job for Finland so Lithuania have a tough task.



Next we have a remarkable group of very different contenders. First, and most likely to do well, is Estonia's Elina who sings La Forza, a wonderful operatic number but one that keeps your attention and sounds sort of modern still. The notes she reaches are simply phenomenal and I like the straightforward style of presentation, although I suspect there's be a big dress and lights on the night. It is a stunning song and Elina must be the best singer by far. It would be a very worthy winner and set the standards for future years on a more serious level, reflecting Portugal's move last year and building upon it.

The Czech Republic have only recently joined the Eurovision club but this year they should reap some of the benefits with their jazzy number from Mikolas and friends. I swear the sax riff is the same as did so well for Moldova last year! That is probably its best bit and why it is looking quite popular. I don't see it winning, though.

The Netherlands have had some consistently good entries for some time now and this year they have a chap called Waylon who doesn't wail on at all but gives us real guitar strumming Country Rock or Rock Country. It's a driving number that is different and I am sure it will get plenty of support. again, not a winner but a contender for the Top 5.

Spain have two young lovers staring into each others' eyes as they croon and sway. It's very sweet and not a bad song at all. They will certainly get a huge number of televotes as there is something in the chemistry that just makes people go 'aah' and that will often turn into a vote or two. A complete and utter contrast to the Israeli woman. In fact I hope this comes just after the Israeli entry and makes voters forget what they saw. It is one of those entries that may surprise us and win. There are not very many this year.

Another is France with Madame Monsieur and the very simple Mercy. It reminds me of some of the simple Belgian and Dutch entries of the past. Those did well and I feel this will too.

Greece are often popular just for being Greek and reminding people of sunshine and lovely shades of blue. They have also had some great entries in the past but also a few rather dodgy ones. This year it is a goodie. Yianna is a big pop star there and familiar with the big stage. She sings very well and this has a nice traditional feel which we haven't got a great deal of this year amongst the top entries. She is out at 40-1 at the moment but I think those odds will fall considerably once a few more people hear the track.

Denmark always make a good impression on the competition in my view and I have really liked several of their past entries. This year it is a heavy number with what look like five Norse Gods looming in the mist. They sing well, very strongly and it will definitely have some appeal. Not enough to make much difference, though, but you'll probably remember them afterwards.

Norway have brought back Alexander Rybak. And he's singing a song that tells us how to write a song which kinda implies that he knows how to win.Well, he does insofar as he won a few years ago with a splendid track and lots of violin playing. All that gets referenced in the clever show but I don't see it being good enough to beat a few others and voters will think, 'Yes that was nice' but not do a great deal more. He'll get lots of 4s and 5s.

Azerbaijan have the only other commercial pop song. It's quite a good one but no-one wants to go to Baku in 2019. They will get the usual compulsory votes from several neighbours and others who feel obliged for various business reasons so could be up there with the Top 10 team.

Bulgaria, after two excellent years when they were close to winning at times, are well fancied by the bookies at the moment, with a fourth or fifth place envisaged. I don't get it. The song, the singing, the lyrics, none of it works for me at all. I may be missing some magic that will be woven in a live performance but so far it leaves me cold and slightly annoyed at the odd English. It isn't going to win, or, at least I hope not as I haven't got that one covered.

So, assuming Lithuania don't make it, here is my very early prediction for the Top 10 (ignoring Israel):

Australia | Estonia

Spain | France | Greece

Azerbaijan | The Netherlands

Denmark | Czech Republic | Norway

Unless someone puts in the most amazingly better live performance at a Semi Final or re-issues another version of their track, that is it this year. Saara Alto may squeeze in for Finland and someone somewhere will give Israel and Bulgaria bucket loads of votes. Russia too will get close but I don't think even the frail Yulia will be enough to pull in the numbers they usually expect to get. Hers is a decent song but not great. Politics may not help Russia this year either. Nothing wil, i am sory to say, help the United Kingdom's chances either. SuRie may be a nice young lady and was able to influence the crowd well at the show where she was selected. I just can't see he doing the same sufficiently well to get very far at all at the main event. the song simply isn't good enough and just doesn't stand any comparison with the others I've mentioned above. United Kingdom are currently over 400-1 and I fear that's generous. They'll be higher yet.

Eurovision: still waiting for Armenia but here's the Top 10 anyway.

There are still over 50 days to go but already some clear groups of contenders for this year's Eurovision victory are forming. I was waiting for Armenia to release their song but, other than a singer and a title, there's nothing to help yet so I'll carry on with what we can learn from what has been issued now.

Young boys with carefully brushed eyebrows are the in-thing this year. Australia started it with their chap but his singing leaves a bit to be desired and the song is a bit tedious too. They'll be disappointed after Dani did so well last year but I expect they might still make the Top 10 as they're one of those countries people can vote for without worrying about the politics.

Another new kid on the Euro block is the Bulgarian lad who looks set to repeat last year's excellent result for the country. He's very young and no doubt many followers will find him cute and adorable. He can also sing very well and the song suits him and the competition well. In the Battle of The Baby Boys he's the likely winner.

The other boy is the lead singer from Homeland, a successful Irish band, much supported by Louis Walsh who usually knows what he's doing. A very good song and another extremely good singer should get Ireland back into the main show after their embarrassingly poor performance last year which failed even to get them in the Top 10 of their Semi Final group.

Then we have slightly older lads from Sweden, Portugal, Austria and Hungary. Last year, Austria were virtually written off by everyone except me before the competition but actually finished quite high in the table. I wonder whether the same could happen again. They're currently languishing at around 300-1 and, whilst I don't expect them to win, they have a chance of reaching the Top Ten if the singer performs well. It's a pretty good track although it's not going to inspire many.

Hungary have one of the few vaguely traditional tracks with a combination of the new and old that could appeal to quite a few in the juries at voting time.

Sweden have a very smart chap and four similarly smart lads singing and dancing around him. They win the Best Suit Award and the song could easily be a hit in our Top 40 but doesn't exactly come across as an all-out winner as many of their recent efforts have done. It's all competent stuff and is currently predicted to come 2nd so it would seem likely that Sweden will secure another Top 10 place this year.

Portugal is my own prediction for a challenger for the title this year. Much will depend on how the chap comes across on the day and I guess we won't really know until we get a preview at the Semi Finals. That will probably be when most people decide whether he's got a chance or not. I remember how France led the favourites list all the way through the lead up to the competition with a stunning video performance by their young male ballad singer one year - only to get virtually no votes at all on the night after a totally lacklustre live performance.

So it's still the older Italian for the Top Spot amongst the boys as things stand.

There seem to be no groups this year worthy of mention other than an early favourite from the Netherlands. OG3NE had the pzzazz of Little Mix - and the talent - but a poor song has left them way out of the running this year. Indeed, I am not even sure they'll reach the Final which is quite sad but that's the way things go if you get a lousy track.

Romania have a couple with a classic Euro-weird entry that will get votes just for the hell of it. A rapper and average girl singer do yodelling. At times she's quite good but there are other times when she's dreadful. It is crazy enough to win - Eurovision is like that, you know. I expect it'll scrape into the Top Ten and hope that's as far as it gets - even though it does make me smile.

So that leaves us with the girls. There are, of course, plenty of them and this year's main pretender to the Euro Throne is a girl from Belgium with a low voice that could almost be one of the boys we talked about before. Danger Zone is simply a good pop song and, once again, if it is performed well then it will certainly get votes from juries and public across the board. It reminds me of the Common Linnets track from the Netherlands a couple of years ago which quietly surprised everyone and consistently good scoring helped it to come 2nd. I see the same thing happening this year. It is, in fact, a potential winner should either Francesco let Italy down on the night or juries and voters simply not getting Occidentali Karma after all.

Another girl who could make the Top Ten is the young lady from FYR Macedonia. They haven't had much luck over the years and if their success was to rely upon the video then they could forget even qualifying this year. The video is not pleasant viewing. However, the song is good and deserves votes which a good live performance could attract.

A more watchable but nevertheless most confusing video accompanies the Azerbaijan entry. The punk-looking girl is one of the more modern-sounding girls this year, if not the only one now I think about that. There's a tone to her voice that people will either love or hate and we know that Azerbaijan always gets a bundle of votes so a Top Ten position is pretty likely for this unusual but quite effective track.

By my reckoning there's just one place left in the Top Ten if that lot all do well. The girl contenders are UK's Lucie Jones, Greece's Demy, France's Alma and Finland's Norma John. These are all really good singers and experienced performers so any one has the potential to knock out one of the people I've mentioned with better songs on the night. Their own songs, however, are just a bit lacking so if they do make it, it would be more by a combination of luck and their own personality than good songwriting. They should all do well but I think it will be another girl who makes that tenth spot.

There is also, of course, Russia. We've come to expect Russia to come 2nd or 3rd now as they do put a lot of effort into their challenges and, regardless of how good some have been, they have a legion of nations who seem inclined or obliged to give them good voting figures. This year the big nation is playing the Diversity card big time and Yulia Samoylova will be singing from her wheelchair. In the video she seems frail and her singing isn't as good as we've heard from previous entries. There is something very appealing, though, about this attractive young lady's performance and I am sure she'll pull in plenty of votes across the board.

Top 3

Italy | Belgium | Portugal

Top 6

Bulgaria | Sweden | Ireland

Top 10

Romania | FYR Macedonia | Azerbaijan | Russia

Outside chances

UK | France | Greece | Hungary | Finland | Australia

Azerbaijan hope a Miracle will bring them 2017 hosting. Serbia would need one. Lithuania need to stay in tune.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan have a decent entry, a strong song and if Samra sings it well on the night then this will do well. Actually, it'll do pretty well anyway as Azerbaijan have lots of money and the top guys there would like the opportunity to do some more trading through hosting the competition in 2017,

In a year when almost anyone can win - there being no obvious favourites that I can identify - anything can happen and this may sneak in to the Top 10 more by luck and friendly votes than anything else but that sort of placing is, I reckon, pretty much assured.

I would not say the same for Serbia, who have a distinctly unpleasant and frantic sounding song, with its inevitable key change and crazy high notes too being quite annoying. It does have the regulation Balkan flute and big drum so may find a few votes in the region and from states unsure of who else to vote for. I don't like this much.

Lithuania

Not renowned for their success in Eurovision, one of their best efforts was 14th in 2012 and it was the same singer who got them there that time. It's a reasonably good track, lively and sung with some energy and passion, although not much accuracy note-wise. It will get some votes and ought to qualify too. This recording is rubbish, though, so he'll need to better on the night but I reckon they might make the left hand side of the scoreboard.

Hungary, The Netherlands and Sweden join the Top 10 contenders

Latvia

A jolly song about a Cake to bake. OK. Cool and cheerful song that will have some panel members tapping their feet and maybe voting enough to get them in the Top 10 this year.

Estonia

Tanja has a go at Loreen's style with the solid electro beat and a convenient male dancer. She shows a lot more flesh than her Swedish predecessor and moves around a bit quicker. It's a decent track but I don't see it being that popular or unpopular.

Sweden

So we know they'll be making a good effort. Almost all their entries stand as potential chart acts in their own right. This is no exception. More serious ballad, building as ballads usually do in Eurovision to a drum-assisted crescendo but not too annoyingly so. The echo is quite important but I am not sure she'll get that on the night. Neverthess this will appeal across the board and see Sweden into the Top 10, and, I reckon, quite high there too.

Iceland

A bit crazy - all good stuff about not having prejudice, a bit too politically correct for me and too obviously put together for Eurovision. Not something I want to play again and doubt whether many others will but it's a safe vote for countries so expect it to get enough points to keep away from the bottom.

Albania

They always seem to make the main competition and have some pretty individual entries that you either love or hate. This one has the ballad and bloke with a guitar doing rock stuff. The girl looks angry most of the time and it's an Evanescence type of track. Strong but it lacks any hook or, to be honest, much appeal - that singer isn't particularly watchable.

Azerbaijan

They'd love to win again and do keep making strong efforts. Here they come again this year with a potential #2. Pretty girl with gentle song that sounds like it ought to tell a story.




Nice enough but at digging out burning bullets from his chest I began to wonder what it was all bout. Ah, of course, it's all about trying to win this thing and that's not a bad effort at all.

Ukraine

Well, you have to worry with the title Tick Tock. The country will be getting some sympathy votes I suspect this year. I hope the singer doesn't come from Crimea or they'll be all kinds of problems. Assuming she isn't and that Ukraine hasn't been wiped off the map in its entirety then this is a jolly number but a bit desperate and tries a bit too hard. As always the girl is lovely and we'll be guaranteed some pleasant viewing. Sure, left hand side of the board but not a great deal more this year.

Belgium

It really is time Belgium did better. here we have someone who looks like he won a Belgium's Got talent contest and is still wearing the same suit. Big chap, good voice, near opera style. Singing about mother, he is guaranteed to get some votes - no-one would want a song about mother to get nul points now would they. The Balkans will like this so there's a few votes guaranteed - and Italy and Malta too. Serbia won with something like this a few years ago. We should watch out for this as it is one of those that might just sneak up on the night if he sings really well.

Moldova

No, I don't want to listen to this again. This is one of those annoying tracks that is oh so serious but never really gets anywhere.

San Marino

Maybe is the title and maybe this will be the year when little San Marino gets into the main competition and scores a few points. I can't see this getting many and it is a bit forgettable but, like Andorra, it's time we heard more from the little places.

Portugal

This started encouragingly enough - something we can dance along to perhaps in Latin style - but then it all goes a bit wrong. In fact it just goes on and that girl looks so angry. I would not want to meet her on a dark night in a Lisbon ally. Expect to see plenty of legs on show on the night and she may be able to hold that last note and not frighten us too much.

The Netherlands

Something modern and interesting from Holland this year. They had a good entry last year and are really making quite an effort these days. This is folksy but with an insistent back beat and it grows with nice harmonies and it will appeal to Country fans too. I can imagine Mumford & Sons doing this and it would be #1. Now I think of it, we should have had them doing the UK entry.

I like this a lot. I would like to see it do well and feel it really should.

Montenegro

With so many entries being in English it was a pleasant change to have this in Montenegran or whatever they speak over there. This is all good classic Balkan fare. Violin, strong drum beat, good solid singer from a bloke of indeterminate age. Nice as far as it goes.

Hungary

This is the last that is available at the time of writing. A plaintive number to start. Then it starts and is much more commercial with a Bruno Mars feel. That's no bad thing and this could be quite successful. No-one bothers much about Hungary these days and they seem nicely placed between the Balkans, the East and the West so they may be a good political choice this year. Nasty subject matter. This is not cheery Eurovision pop, though. It's one of the tracks that could make the charts over here if released.

The automatic finalists' entries for #Eurovision

Here are the last six reviews - the five founding nations of the contest who get automatic entry to the final and the host country. France and UK are the main ones to watch out for.

Germany

Nice ballad, well-written and performed. A likely hit across Europe but not a winning Eurovision entry. I can't quite put my finger on why but I think Engelbert wins out on tracks like this, despite his age.

Spain

You'll have to go here to see the Spanish entry for some reason best known to the organisers and their lawyers. after a quiet start and slow build there's a lot of passion and it is remarkably well sung. It lacks something, though, to really make it memorable. A good effort but not a winner this year either for one of the major players.

Azerbaijan

They'll get plenty of mid-range votes as the host. An oval-faced, hard-voiced girl sings this year and, whilst she is spot-on with the notes and all that, the song itself isn't that great and we'll be looking for another venue next year.

Italy

Boom boom boom. No, it's not that bad at all! In fact this is a highly complex track that is performed really well by the girl. maybe it's too clever for the Eurovision audience, though, and a touch over-produced. Certainly the video version was. A nice effort from Italy, who we don't see much of these days. I'd like to see it do well but it could just struggle to get the left hand side of the board.

France

Now this is a clever entry. the whistle is really really catchy and the girl is really really pretty. Add the fact that she can sing well and this is a potential winner and has to be top 5 unless the live performance fails to inspire. The video is good and, of course, much depends on what she wears, who does the whistling etc. Nevertheless, if you watch this you will remember it and that, to a great extent, is what matters when attracting Eurovision voters.

UK

I've dealt with Engelbert before so don't need to repeat his video here. As I said then, 45 years ago I would have turned off the radio at the merest possibility of his songs being played but I'm a bit older now and ahve to put all that behind me somehow! It is a very well crafted song and he can be relied on to do a great job with it on the night. There will be votes for the song, votes for the guy so he's sure to do reasonably well. Win? I don't see it but, if the voters like ballads, JEdward mess up the vocals, several pretty girls split the pretty girl vote and malta and Norway fight over theirs then the UK do have a chance.

Eurovision 2010: Azerbaijan

Modern and husky. Gagaesque and will appeal to youngsters and also has sufficient drama for their Eastern European friends. Swedish writers - another reason for my choosing this as an early favourite. She needs to lost the sheep, though.