I seem to have completely missed 2025. What the hell just happened, you might say. Not a lot, quite frankly so let's quickly move on to tonight's show.
There appear to be just two contenders for the win: Finland and Australia. Finland have always been out in the front with the bookies but, as we know well, it can often be the 2nd placed country that comes through. So much depends on how the votes split between Jury and Public tonight.
I applied the same set of votes for the last three years to the countries - putting the votes in descending order and applying them to the expected order for the appropriate vote on Betfair. The totals were remarkably close with a clear Top 5 at first:
Finland | Israel | Australia | Greece | Romania
In the last couple of days the impressive performance by Bulgaria has pushed them into the Top 5 instead of Romania but I no longer have access to the predicted Jury Vote order so could not redo the numbers. Nevertheless this year is going to be very close.
Israel are predicted to win the Public Vote and Australia the Jury Vote. Neither come very high in the other Vote, however, leaving the way clear for another country to win with a decent score in each case. The most likely is Finland. Theirs is a stunning performance that seems to be pretty reliable and, barring mishaps, they will have to finish up in the Top 5, if not the No. 1 position.
Australia have an excellent and well-respected artist in Delta Goodrem but she was not at her best in the Semi Final. Nevertheless her odds of winning have dropped like a stone and someone somewhere must know that the Jury Vote was, indeed, a massive victory and maybe enough to win overall.
Also in the running is the ridiculous Greek entry. I cannot see how it could score highly at all in the Jury Vote and I am sure that, however mad voters may be on the night, this silly entry will not win. I can only imagine that the Semi Final votes have been sneaked out and were impressive enough to keep the Ferto boy in the running for 3rd place.
It is going to be an interesting battle between Romania and Bulgaria. Both young girls with plenty of flesh on show and capable of a decent performance, well, if you excuse the chair routine for Bulgaria and the annoying opera stuff and roar by Romania. It is possible that the Jury disliked the 'Choke Me' lyrics for Romania but I also don't see them rating Bangaranga by Bulgaria very highly either. Bulgaria are likely to get the more Public votes so I think they'll get the Top 5 slot. Romania will make it if Israel really do not get the huge Public vote that everyone predicts. The Israel song is Ok but nothing spectacular and easy to forget. I cannot see why it should be expected to get such a huge vote from the public, especially in current times with not a lot of love out there for Israel amongst the age group most likely to be voting. I may be wrong and there is a vast number and that is enough to give them a Top 5 or even No.1 - it won't take many to swing this either way of the three directions. (I exclude Greece, Bulgaria and Romania but leave Israel in with that chance, based on reports of likely votes only).
France and Denmark were once up there with what looked like a good chance of Top 5. France, however, have not performed as well as the video appeared and the opera stuff has been a bit overdone of late. It's very competent and will get lots of Jury votes but I fear not enough Public votes. Top 10 but that's all.
Denmark have a very good entry this year but something seems to have put off either the Jury or the Public or maybe both. The box and sweaty-looking blokes reminds us of the awful UK entry in 2024 and is visually poor. The guy is a great singer, though, and the song itself worthy of a decent position when compared to the rest. Certainly should be Top 10 and may just make Top 7 in the absence of another pretty boy for the public vote.
Pretty boys are conspicuous by their absence this year, oddly. Czechia have one and he stands a good chance of making the Top 10 but that's about it.
Our usual stand-bys, Ukraine and Sweden have let us down this year. Ukraine's girl sounded pretty poor in the Semi finals and people seem to have lost interest since. It could have been a lot better but I fear it's too late to be rescued now. With the war still going on and Ukraine suffering so much I do hope they get a big pile of public votes nevertheless and that can be feasible by virtue of there being so many Ukrainians now in other countries who can vote for Ukraine. Let's hope for Top 10 from that, at least, if not the song. Sweden chose a girl with a mask. I really find it hard to watch her. She may have a pretty face but that mask is just plain ugly. The shape, the position and just the feeling that it is there as some sot of memorable effect rather than genuine personal preference puts me off what is actually a pretty cool pop song. Take off the mask, get the notes right and look as if you're really enjoying yourself and the girl could rescue Sweden from 250-1 to having a Top 10 finish.
They may still get one as everyone else is pretty bad. Well, except Italy. Italy have a middle-aged man who can sing really well and sounds so typically Italian that you can't help but like him and wish him well. There is something about the song that does work but not really in a big way. The votes generally love Italy - both the Jury and the Public, so I see Italy getting a good score and that Top 10 finish.
Lastly we have to mention Moldova. Eurovision isn't Eurovision without Moldova and this year it's a simple advert for the country. It bounces along, has little originality or skill and won't get many Jury votes but you the public will love it as always.
The UK entry, by the way, is weird. I have no idea what the people who decide these things had in mind but it ahs zero chance of winning. I reckon it will get a few votes from the Public Vote just in recognition of its oddity and the effort the bloke will put in on stage to present it. We shouldn't come last this year but we will not be far away from the bottom. That's reserved for Belgium and Germany.
OK, so here we go: my prediction:
Finland | Australia
Israel
Bulgaria | Romania
Denmark | Greece
Czechia | Italy | France
