For a change there is no clear favourite this year so much will depend upon how well some of the best acts do on stage and at rehearsals in the last few days. The national juries, remember, vote on a special 'Jury Performance' which is never quite the same as we see in the Final. They also tend to award points more for the 'Song' part rather than the 'Eurovision' part of the Contest whereas there will always be some acts which gather thousands of votes by being just Eurotrash, very camp, very silly or just for reasons no-one ever quite understands.
The acts this year fall into some quite distinct categories: pop songs, ballads, dramatic performance stuff, Euro-nonsense and oddities.
Pop songs / chart material
Italy
A fairly good song with an excellent performer who we can probably rely upon to do well on the live stage. The girl is a good and experienced singer and dancer and will certainly attract a lot of interest and votes. It is a possible winner if her competitors don't quite make it on the night but not strong enough really to take the win on its own merits.
United Kingdom
Pretty typical chart stuff which is fairly pleasant as long as you don't look at the dancers or even Olly for that matter. He's a good singer but whoever put what appears to be the set and stage together for this needs their head examined as it just looked dreadful in rehearsals. The well-written song and good vocals by Olly should keep the British well away from the bottom this year. They're predicted to make Top Ten at the time of writing this but I have my doubts about that. But they will not be bottom as there really are some awful acts this year.
Greece
Another good and experienced girl performer but this song has not moved very well from video to stage. It's quite forgettable too. Greece will be quite popular and may make the Top 10 but it's not the best of the pop song group so will be likely to be beaten by the others.
Austria
For those who love rave dance music this is the one and it does stand out as such with nothing to match it. I can see it being a summer hit across Europe but it's not likely to get many Jury votes. If the girl really gets a good backing and the performance is as strong as some of the videos we've seen then it stands a good chance of a Top 5 but I have a feeling she will just be a bit thin and weak vocally, or it will all sound a bit tired, on the night. One to watch and enjoy, though, if you like that sort of thing.
Armenia
Another pretty girl from the old USSR who dances and sings along merrily and in a quite old-fashioned almost 60s style. I don't really know what to make of this and it's no winner but I can see a number of countries backing this one and a good result in the top half of the board.
Sweden
Looks like Sweden have picked a poor act this year, reminiscent of one of the UK's acts when they put on a couple of X Factor lads who were voted out at week 6. It's a pop song and there are some good-looking young lads dancing but it is very, very average and the bookies have already written off its chances. For a Swedish entry, that's bad.
Lithuania
This one sneaks in as it is kinda memorable for no particular reason. Lithuania often surprise us with a gentle track that is performed well and no-one expects it to get as many votes as it does. I see this one doing quite well but can't really tell you why other than the chap singing is quite pleasant and the track moves along insistently. But it's not going to win.
Ballads
France
There is really only one ballad and that is France, again, showing super quality with this selection. A big chap with a big voice and a classic love song belted out at full volume. It could have been issued at almost any time in the last 60 years and made the charts - and that's its negative as well as positive aspects. Some people will just let it waft over them, others will just not like this old-fashioned sort of thing while others will respect the performance if it is good and the Jury votes will be pretty strong, if not the top. So there will be a good level of votes for this from the Jury and also from those who like these big numbers as there will be none others to vote for. That could have a significant impact on the results where other acts get split support and allow France through.
Having said that, the guy's first performances that I've seen have been excellent but recent rehearsals show him on less than top form and I wonder how well he will actually do on the night. France had another superb ballad some years ago which ought to have won but teh singer simply didn't get things right on the night and it fared very badly.
Israel
This is a good song which would make the charts here if issued and it will get plenty of votes for the performance and the singer but only from those people who are not influenced by all that is going on in the world at the moment. Whereas we can expect Ukraine to benefit from the appalling behaviour of Russia in its continued advances across their country, there seems little sympathy for Israel now in the Eurovision community. This is a pity because it will undoubtedly have an impact on the singer's chances and many people will not want to be seen supporting her, despite the fact that she is one of the best in the show.
Drama
Ukraine
Ukraine nearly always manage to bring strong emotion into their tracks and this one is bursting with it. Coupled with what looks on first viewing to be an impressive staging, it is all down to how well the voices sound on the night. This is an anthemic type of track that really can only come from Ukraine and one girl's voice is superb. If she can repeat some of her recent performances when it matters and people are voting than this has a god chance of winning. It will get a reasonable Jury vote and a large Public vote and, if it doesn't manage the win then it ought to be Top 5 for sure.
Norway
This is one of most impressive performances of all - something Norway do well. It is all about the lead woman singer, though, and whether the whole thing carries the weight and strength that it needs. It is a vast performance with a lot going on, almost irrelevantly, in the background. People will either love it or hate it, depending upon whether the crazy drums and guitars come out on top or the great song itself. At the moment it looks like rehearsals have not gone well and the track is dropping down the bookies' charts like a stone, along with Sweden, Belgium and Armenia. It still has a chance, though, in my book. One to watch.
Georgia
I don't know a great deal about this one other than that there is a pretty girl and lots of fire going on. It has a bit of Cyprus's Fuego going on, therefore, which aways goes down well. I do not think there is a hope in hell that we'll be off to Tbilisi this time next year, though, but it should make the cut to be in the Final.
Belgium
'Wait till the party is over' gets repeated more times than I think the jury voters will like, despite it being in tune and well sung. This is a heavy song thrown at us by the guy on the stage but you do wish someone had taught him some of the other lyrics. At one point this was Top 5 with the bookies but even they seem to have got bored.
Euro-nonsense and oddities
Croatia
This was favourite almost since it was released, occasionally switching places with Switzerland. It's the one everyone says will win if you like Eurotrash. It's not bad Eurotrash, though, merely extremely repetitive and catchy therefore. The performer seems good and it is definitely going to do well. It will all be down to the Public vote on this as it won't get a big Jury vote but I just feel it will get enough to climb over the other potential winners at the end.
Netherlands
Now this is dreadful stuff about Euro-papa and is the sort of thing we can do without in the competition. It may be more of an oddity now I think about it. Unfortunately, the mad voters seem to be likely to vote for this, according to the bookies who had it in second place at one point. I think it may now have dawned on them now, though, that it could split the votes for this sort of stuff and so damage its own chances as well as Croatia's and Finland's. Good.
Finland
This is Windows95 man, who has had to have his T-shirt blurred in case we all rush out to buy the old Microsoft software. It's rubbish and looks awful, maybe as bad a Olly's lot. Regrettably it may well qualify as there is so much other terribly stuff to compete with and there are always votes for this crap.
Ireland
Now this is about as weird as it gets with this strange girl at one moment all sweet and gentle and the next a nasty-looking thug, hence the name Bambie Thug, presumably. Ireland have been really unlucky in recent years failing to qualify too often or with rather underwhelming performances of otherwise good tracks when they do. As it happens, this entry will qualify as it is at least vaguely interesting, or shocking or something people will remember in a group that has very few others anyone would want to see in the final. It is forecast at present to make not just Top 10 but is vying with France and the Netherlands for the 5th place. Personally I think it may struggle to make 10th with what is likely to be a very poor Jury vote and simply not enough weird fans across Europe and its environs to make up for that.
Switzerland
This is actually one of the favourites to win. Ever since the young lad performed this difficult track live and showed that he was a real competitor rather than just making some point about being trans or some sort of unidentified gender the bookies have put him at or near the top. There is serious talent here but slightly oddly presented for those of us not in the gay-trans-whatever world. It will go down very well as a topic with the vast majority of fans and it will also benefit considerably from the Jury vote which I reckon will be very large, simply out of acknowledgement of the guy's talent as a singer and performer. So, with both Jury and Public vote boxes well-ticked it really does stand a chance.
The only reason Switzerland may not win will be if, on the night, he doesn't quite get the performance right, is placed in a poor spot for voters to recall the track in the order of performance or, of course, there is a large audience of what I'll call 'ordinary' voters who simply don't get it and vote for Croatia / Netherlands or Ukraine / Italy instead.
The others
I have listed just sixteen here. There will be one or two others joining them like Germany and Spain but you can forget them now. They're awful entries by nations who seem to have give up on this. Germany have a bloke dressed in a rough old coat who sings and looks very much like the chap we put in a few years ago in a rough old coat and who came last. They could well take the last place once more in a terrible record for them over the last few years. Spain have a strange woman of a certain age singing some sort of pop song which just does not work at all. How on earth they chose that is beyond me.
All these others are at 1000-1 so that tells you quite a lot. One or two may get through the qualifying rounds and so I'll talk about them if any make it. Cyprus is probably the best of the lot but I have heard no-one being nice about the song which people seem to think is a copy of something else. She and the Maltese girl are both very good-looking and pretty impressive dancers from what I have seen, with vaguely reasonable pop songs too.
