Four-way battle to qualify for Ireland, Azerbaijan, Romania and Belgium

 

There is a real 4-way competition opening up for the Group 1 Semi Final as to who will qualify between Romania, Belgium, Ireland and Azerbaijan.

The 'Groups' may not be numbered correctly as 1 or 2 - I cannot remember which is which in the competition but the countries that make up each Group are correct so bear with me if I have them the wrong way round. The fight still exists.

At the time of writing, and as can be seen above, Romania are predicted to make it but with the slimmest of margins over Belgium which could easily have changed by the time I finish the article! Ireland are not far behind either and have been leading not only the group but, one day, were seen as a better bet than Croatia and Israel! That was just for one day, unfortunately. Well, unfortunately for Ireland and for me as I like their entry a lot. Israel and Croatia have since provided a bit more confidence with the bookies from their rehearsals to date whereas Australia, once expected to make it, have not. The other contenders in this tough, tough group are North Macedonia and Slovenia. No-one is giving Slovenia even a glimpse of a chance and North Macedonia seem to be lacking in friends as their track is very well sung indeed. They seem to be suffering the same fate as Spain, now out at a ridiculous 1000-1 (and it can't get worse than that on Betfair!) with people apparently taking the view that a sad male ballad will not win this year.

The others in Group 1, Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine, Sweden, Russia and Norway, all seem sure to get through. Neither Russia nor Norway should, in my view, but they have their supporters and the bookies' declared chances of success reflect that.

Those four contenders for the remaining place to join Croatia and Israel in the Final have a difficult task. Each has its merits. Romania has been quite well fancied for a while but has recently dipped quite a lot - it's a decent song that could be well-presented and will have appeal, along the lines of Bulgaria, but rehearsals haven't gone well so far.

So the only way in will be for one of Azerbaijan, Belgium or Ireland to take Romania's place. Azerbaijan have a typically hot and sexy number and will look good and definitely have Eurovision appeal and Baku money. You can never discount Azerbaijan in Eurovision. Belgium are the cool guys this year and, in the absence of many cool guys, I am surprised to see them struggling to qualify. They're the most likely to get in as things stand, in my opinion.

Ireland have a track that is a real pop song. You'll be humming it after she finishes. But I don't know how the girl will come across or how well she can perform, whether nerves will show or not. Azerbaijan can hide errors in a glittering outfit and very long legs. Belgium have each other and don't make errors anyway. They're too experienced, perhaps even tediously so. Like Cliff Richard in a fog. 

While I wrote this, Belgium drew equal with Romania. Interesting.

The table above, incidentally predicts the Finalists. At the top are those who are automatically included so it is not a representation of who is likely to win, just who'll get to the Final.

Eurovision. The possible winners?

There are, at last, one or two entries in this year's Eurovision Song Contest which make the show worth watching again. Russia, Sweden, Armenia, Malta and Israel have yet to release their entries and each is expected to be strong so no-one can predict much at the moment as to a winner.

Above I feature North Macedonia's entry. I think it is one of the best although it is not at all fancied by the bookies at the moment. The country used to be referred to as the Federal Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia which was never going to get them many votes and they've really not done terribly well in Eurovision, usually failing to reach the final. This year they will and I have a feeling that, if the singer performs well on the stage, they'll surprise everyone.

Switzerland won't get the politically correct vote so will probably not make the top spot but their entry is possibly the most likely to be a chart topper and I can see it getting played a lot in whatever discos are called now in the holiday hotspots.



The Netherlands have a much-fancied entry. It's a well-written and very well sung track although I wonder if its delicate parts might get lost on the night and it does need the choir-like backing which I don't know how they'll reproduce in a live performance. It does just end rather oddly, though, which may not make it as memorable for the judges and voters. nevertheless, expect The Netherlands to be in the Top 10.



Norway won't leave with nul points this year. The group is a slightly odd mix but it is a strong, initially pretty traditional Euro-pop number with an interesting Nordic feel about it. Just as you start to get a little bored, however, and are wondering whether that is Gary Barlow singing, some weird noises emerge from one of the older blokes and it has a certain power which should get a good few votes. A strong number, especially with that Gary on the team.




After last year's very near miss and the pretty and pretty impressive performance we got on the stage, Cyprus have to meet high expectations. They may just do that with Replay which has another of the island's beauties giving us a modern track which could easily make most of the charts across Europe. It has that big, fat brass thing going in the background which several tracks have featured this year and it is almost as if a new button has been programmed into whatever software everyone is using in track production these days. I don't think Cyprus will win this year either but this ought to keep them in the Top 10.



Italy have yet another clever song and the singer reminds me of the guy who really should have won a couple of years ago with the amazing song form Francesco Gabbini and gorilla. You remember that one. Well this isn't quite as good but is modern, very italian and cool. Again, much depends on how well the singer comes across on the night and it isn't a winner but I expect it'll keep Italy up there with the best this year.



Belgium have a very well-produced number but I just don't know how the young singer will come across live on the big stage. It's a great song and would make the charts here and abroad so I expect it will grab plenty of attention but a winner? I have my doubts.




And that, I'm afraid, is it, so far.

Eurovision: still waiting for Armenia but here's the Top 10 anyway.

There are still over 50 days to go but already some clear groups of contenders for this year's Eurovision victory are forming. I was waiting for Armenia to release their song but, other than a singer and a title, there's nothing to help yet so I'll carry on with what we can learn from what has been issued now.

Young boys with carefully brushed eyebrows are the in-thing this year. Australia started it with their chap but his singing leaves a bit to be desired and the song is a bit tedious too. They'll be disappointed after Dani did so well last year but I expect they might still make the Top 10 as they're one of those countries people can vote for without worrying about the politics.

Another new kid on the Euro block is the Bulgarian lad who looks set to repeat last year's excellent result for the country. He's very young and no doubt many followers will find him cute and adorable. He can also sing very well and the song suits him and the competition well. In the Battle of The Baby Boys he's the likely winner.

The other boy is the lead singer from Homeland, a successful Irish band, much supported by Louis Walsh who usually knows what he's doing. A very good song and another extremely good singer should get Ireland back into the main show after their embarrassingly poor performance last year which failed even to get them in the Top 10 of their Semi Final group.

Then we have slightly older lads from Sweden, Portugal, Austria and Hungary. Last year, Austria were virtually written off by everyone except me before the competition but actually finished quite high in the table. I wonder whether the same could happen again. They're currently languishing at around 300-1 and, whilst I don't expect them to win, they have a chance of reaching the Top Ten if the singer performs well. It's a pretty good track although it's not going to inspire many.

Hungary have one of the few vaguely traditional tracks with a combination of the new and old that could appeal to quite a few in the juries at voting time.

Sweden have a very smart chap and four similarly smart lads singing and dancing around him. They win the Best Suit Award and the song could easily be a hit in our Top 40 but doesn't exactly come across as an all-out winner as many of their recent efforts have done. It's all competent stuff and is currently predicted to come 2nd so it would seem likely that Sweden will secure another Top 10 place this year.

Portugal is my own prediction for a challenger for the title this year. Much will depend on how the chap comes across on the day and I guess we won't really know until we get a preview at the Semi Finals. That will probably be when most people decide whether he's got a chance or not. I remember how France led the favourites list all the way through the lead up to the competition with a stunning video performance by their young male ballad singer one year - only to get virtually no votes at all on the night after a totally lacklustre live performance.

So it's still the older Italian for the Top Spot amongst the boys as things stand.

There seem to be no groups this year worthy of mention other than an early favourite from the Netherlands. OG3NE had the pzzazz of Little Mix - and the talent - but a poor song has left them way out of the running this year. Indeed, I am not even sure they'll reach the Final which is quite sad but that's the way things go if you get a lousy track.

Romania have a couple with a classic Euro-weird entry that will get votes just for the hell of it. A rapper and average girl singer do yodelling. At times she's quite good but there are other times when she's dreadful. It is crazy enough to win - Eurovision is like that, you know. I expect it'll scrape into the Top Ten and hope that's as far as it gets - even though it does make me smile.

So that leaves us with the girls. There are, of course, plenty of them and this year's main pretender to the Euro Throne is a girl from Belgium with a low voice that could almost be one of the boys we talked about before. Danger Zone is simply a good pop song and, once again, if it is performed well then it will certainly get votes from juries and public across the board. It reminds me of the Common Linnets track from the Netherlands a couple of years ago which quietly surprised everyone and consistently good scoring helped it to come 2nd. I see the same thing happening this year. It is, in fact, a potential winner should either Francesco let Italy down on the night or juries and voters simply not getting Occidentali Karma after all.

Another girl who could make the Top Ten is the young lady from FYR Macedonia. They haven't had much luck over the years and if their success was to rely upon the video then they could forget even qualifying this year. The video is not pleasant viewing. However, the song is good and deserves votes which a good live performance could attract.

A more watchable but nevertheless most confusing video accompanies the Azerbaijan entry. The punk-looking girl is one of the more modern-sounding girls this year, if not the only one now I think about that. There's a tone to her voice that people will either love or hate and we know that Azerbaijan always gets a bundle of votes so a Top Ten position is pretty likely for this unusual but quite effective track.

By my reckoning there's just one place left in the Top Ten if that lot all do well. The girl contenders are UK's Lucie Jones, Greece's Demy, France's Alma and Finland's Norma John. These are all really good singers and experienced performers so any one has the potential to knock out one of the people I've mentioned with better songs on the night. Their own songs, however, are just a bit lacking so if they do make it, it would be more by a combination of luck and their own personality than good songwriting. They should all do well but I think it will be another girl who makes that tenth spot.

There is also, of course, Russia. We've come to expect Russia to come 2nd or 3rd now as they do put a lot of effort into their challenges and, regardless of how good some have been, they have a legion of nations who seem inclined or obliged to give them good voting figures. This year the big nation is playing the Diversity card big time and Yulia Samoylova will be singing from her wheelchair. In the video she seems frail and her singing isn't as good as we've heard from previous entries. There is something very appealing, though, about this attractive young lady's performance and I am sure she'll pull in plenty of votes across the board.

Top 3

Italy | Belgium | Portugal

Top 6

Bulgaria | Sweden | Ireland

Top 10

Romania | FYR Macedonia | Azerbaijan | Russia

Outside chances

UK | France | Greece | Hungary | Finland | Australia

Belgium: another possible Top 10 but they shouldn't give up on the chocolate this year

This is Belgium's pretty respectable entry. What's The Pressure is a title and some of the track has been borrowed from Queen as well as some of the title. There is also a bit of Uptown Funk  going on in the background so it covers a few bases. The singer's good and seems relaxed on the big stage. My guess is that she is a young chart star there. Any song that has the line "we are invincible.." is asking for trouble, though, and, despite a good baseline and some energetic afros backing her, not a great deal actually happens and you're left wondering where the hook might have been and whether you missed it or, perhaps, it just wasn't there.

Anyway, it'll get a decent number of votes and is a possible Top 10, depending upon what else is in the lists. Early days, yet.

Hungary, The Netherlands and Sweden join the Top 10 contenders

Latvia

A jolly song about a Cake to bake. OK. Cool and cheerful song that will have some panel members tapping their feet and maybe voting enough to get them in the Top 10 this year.

Estonia

Tanja has a go at Loreen's style with the solid electro beat and a convenient male dancer. She shows a lot more flesh than her Swedish predecessor and moves around a bit quicker. It's a decent track but I don't see it being that popular or unpopular.

Sweden

So we know they'll be making a good effort. Almost all their entries stand as potential chart acts in their own right. This is no exception. More serious ballad, building as ballads usually do in Eurovision to a drum-assisted crescendo but not too annoyingly so. The echo is quite important but I am not sure she'll get that on the night. Neverthess this will appeal across the board and see Sweden into the Top 10, and, I reckon, quite high there too.

Iceland

A bit crazy - all good stuff about not having prejudice, a bit too politically correct for me and too obviously put together for Eurovision. Not something I want to play again and doubt whether many others will but it's a safe vote for countries so expect it to get enough points to keep away from the bottom.

Albania

They always seem to make the main competition and have some pretty individual entries that you either love or hate. This one has the ballad and bloke with a guitar doing rock stuff. The girl looks angry most of the time and it's an Evanescence type of track. Strong but it lacks any hook or, to be honest, much appeal - that singer isn't particularly watchable.

Azerbaijan

They'd love to win again and do keep making strong efforts. Here they come again this year with a potential #2. Pretty girl with gentle song that sounds like it ought to tell a story.




Nice enough but at digging out burning bullets from his chest I began to wonder what it was all bout. Ah, of course, it's all about trying to win this thing and that's not a bad effort at all.

Ukraine

Well, you have to worry with the title Tick Tock. The country will be getting some sympathy votes I suspect this year. I hope the singer doesn't come from Crimea or they'll be all kinds of problems. Assuming she isn't and that Ukraine hasn't been wiped off the map in its entirety then this is a jolly number but a bit desperate and tries a bit too hard. As always the girl is lovely and we'll be guaranteed some pleasant viewing. Sure, left hand side of the board but not a great deal more this year.

Belgium

It really is time Belgium did better. here we have someone who looks like he won a Belgium's Got talent contest and is still wearing the same suit. Big chap, good voice, near opera style. Singing about mother, he is guaranteed to get some votes - no-one would want a song about mother to get nul points now would they. The Balkans will like this so there's a few votes guaranteed - and Italy and Malta too. Serbia won with something like this a few years ago. We should watch out for this as it is one of those that might just sneak up on the night if he sings really well.

Moldova

No, I don't want to listen to this again. This is one of those annoying tracks that is oh so serious but never really gets anywhere.

San Marino

Maybe is the title and maybe this will be the year when little San Marino gets into the main competition and scores a few points. I can't see this getting many and it is a bit forgettable but, like Andorra, it's time we heard more from the little places.

Portugal

This started encouragingly enough - something we can dance along to perhaps in Latin style - but then it all goes a bit wrong. In fact it just goes on and that girl looks so angry. I would not want to meet her on a dark night in a Lisbon ally. Expect to see plenty of legs on show on the night and she may be able to hold that last note and not frighten us too much.

The Netherlands

Something modern and interesting from Holland this year. They had a good entry last year and are really making quite an effort these days. This is folksy but with an insistent back beat and it grows with nice harmonies and it will appeal to Country fans too. I can imagine Mumford & Sons doing this and it would be #1. Now I think of it, we should have had them doing the UK entry.

I like this a lot. I would like to see it do well and feel it really should.

Montenegro

With so many entries being in English it was a pleasant change to have this in Montenegran or whatever they speak over there. This is all good classic Balkan fare. Violin, strong drum beat, good solid singer from a bloke of indeterminate age. Nice as far as it goes.

Hungary

This is the last that is available at the time of writing. A plaintive number to start. Then it starts and is much more commercial with a Bruno Mars feel. That's no bad thing and this could be quite successful. No-one bothers much about Hungary these days and they seem nicely placed between the Balkans, the East and the West so they may be a good political choice this year. Nasty subject matter. This is not cheery Eurovision pop, though. It's one of the tracks that could make the charts over here if released.

Eurovision 2010: Belgium

I thought this could have no chance at first. But it's kinda growing on me.