Updates and reviews for X Factor UK, X Factor USA, American Idol, Eurovision and other programmes that appeal to me. Published just for fun and maybe a little outrageous fortune and the entertainment and amusement of readers.
These are the likely contenders as I see things at the moment. Now, I haven't heard all the songs as some haven't even been released yet so we're talking of Top 10 or perhaps higher finishes but plenty of good odds ought to be available at this stage.
You'll be glad to know that Ireland have a great entry this year with a real pop star and a great track that will be a hit anyway and has a good chance on the Eurovision stage too. Huge odds too as Ireland have struggled even to qualify recently.
Australia have a good entry too. A super actress / singer playing a slightly mad role which could well catch the emotions on the night. The country always throws everything it has into the competition and is going to win before long. This could be their year. Again, great odds at the moment.
Malta have one hell of a massive singer - some big-voiced and limbed kid who won their X Factor competition last year and blew everyone away with her raw talent. Not my style by any stretch of the imagination but she's got Eurovision written all over her ample frame. I'm backing her even before the song is issued. Modest odds but look around.
Romania often do well as they attract votes from all directions. Maybe not a winner but a great entry that will go down well again. Similar style to the Australian - a sort of mad, slightly left field theme this year. Much fancied.
Russia will win again before long. They've come really close and will be throwing the Putin sink behind their entry as well as tweaking our social media feeds to promote it. The band is the weirdest punk bunch but they are very well-known across Eastern Europe. Probably banned here but they've had huge hits with the most crazy stuff and their YouTube stuff has visitors in the many millions. Again, I haven't heard the actual track - no-one outside the Kremlin has - but I can almost guarantee that it will run all the others a close race. Odds are not great but if it is as commercial or crazy as I expect then they'll shorten damn quickly and you won't get a look in later. Pop a fiver on at least.
Lastly the weirdest of all is Iceland and yet it is also strangely tuneful and very memorable. Someone has designed the suits and stuff very well so there's this tall, long-haired gormless-looking twit and a bunch of nerds doing a dance that would make even me look cool. It's a blend of jazz and stuff I can't put a name to but I am convinced it will be Top 5 and the odds will tumble. They're also not great as people have already latched on to this one, unfortunately.
There may well be others in contention but I have a strong feeling this year that one of these will be the winner and certainly Top 10.
More another day. UK is very average. Lithuania are current bookies' favourite. Likely Top 10 but nothing special and it simply can't compete with the ones I've mentioned. Its odds are way too short at this very early stage to even consider a bet. They'll lengthen for sure.
I may need to add Norway to this list as the sensible entry.
So now that everyone has released their entries it is time to make a start at figuring out which ones we need to pay attention to and which can simply be ignored.
The bookies favourite, and by a big margin, is Israel. I really don't like it. The video is just horrible. It is quite different to anything else, though, and has certainly got people's attention and I can see it holding their attention for some time. We kinda got tired of Italy's entry too early last year and that, together with a poor performance and a correspondingly brilliant performance by the Portugal winner, sealed its fate. I am really hoping the same thing happens this year. There will be a definite limit to the number of times I can watch this woman without feeling ill and it is not a song I will be humming along to. I am hoping so much that a few others perform so ruddy marvellously and she simply puts off enough voters to allow some others to compete for the prize.
Let's look at the others.
The classic pop song this year comes from Australia. The girl Jessica is excellent, confident and this is another great entry from Down Under. Usually I have been a little biased against Australia as it just doesn't seem right somehow having Australia in Eurovision but I am getting used to the idea and, quite frankly, someone needs to beat the annoying woman from Israel on the night. Jessica could do that. My personal second favourite.
My own favourite is Lithuania's entry. Ieva really does seem to care about her song and I like the slight Dolores O'Riordan tone that appears sometimes. Unfortunately, this is way out at over 300-1 at the moment and, with a lot of competition in Group 1, there is a distinct possibility that Ieva won't make it to the final. That will be a pity so I am hoping she captures some other hearts in the Semi Final. To do so she'll need to out perform and out vote Armenia, Azerbaijan and Cyprus and maybe even Finland's Saara Alto. I can't see anyone kicking Azerbaijan out and Saara Alto is doing a great publicity job for Finland so Lithuania have a tough task.
Next we have a remarkable group of very different contenders. First, and most likely to do well, is Estonia's Elina who sings La Forza, a wonderful operatic number but one that keeps your attention and sounds sort of modern still. The notes she reaches are simply phenomenal and I like the straightforward style of presentation, although I suspect there's be a big dress and lights on the night. It is a stunning song and Elina must be the best singer by far. It would be a very worthy winner and set the standards for future years on a more serious level, reflecting Portugal's move last year and building upon it.
The Czech Republic have only recently joined the Eurovision club but this year they should reap some of the benefits with their jazzy number from Mikolas and friends. I swear the sax riff is the same as did so well for Moldova last year! That is probably its best bit and why it is looking quite popular. I don't see it winning, though.
The Netherlands have had some consistently good entries for some time now and this year they have a chap called Waylon who doesn't wail on at all but gives us real guitar strumming Country Rock or Rock Country. It's a driving number that is different and I am sure it will get plenty of support. again, not a winner but a contender for the Top 5.
Spain have two young lovers staring into each others' eyes as they croon and sway. It's very sweet and not a bad song at all. They will certainly get a huge number of televotes as there is something in the chemistry that just makes people go 'aah' and that will often turn into a vote or two. A complete and utter contrast to the Israeli woman. In fact I hope this comes just after the Israeli entry and makes voters forget what they saw. It is one of those entries that may surprise us and win. There are not very many this year.
Another is France with Madame Monsieur and the very simple Mercy. It reminds me of some of the simple Belgian and Dutch entries of the past. Those did well and I feel this will too.
Greece are often popular just for being Greek and reminding people of sunshine and lovely shades of blue. They have also had some great entries in the past but also a few rather dodgy ones. This year it is a goodie. Yianna is a big pop star there and familiar with the big stage. She sings very well and this has a nice traditional feel which we haven't got a great deal of this year amongst the top entries. She is out at 40-1 at the moment but I think those odds will fall considerably once a few more people hear the track.
Denmark always make a good impression on the competition in my view and I have really liked several of their past entries. This year it is a heavy number with what look like five Norse Gods looming in the mist. They sing well, very strongly and it will definitely have some appeal. Not enough to make much difference, though, but you'll probably remember them afterwards.
Norway have brought back Alexander Rybak. And he's singing a song that tells us how to write a song which kinda implies that he knows how to win.Well, he does insofar as he won a few years ago with a splendid track and lots of violin playing. All that gets referenced in the clever show but I don't see it being good enough to beat a few others and voters will think, 'Yes that was nice' but not do a great deal more. He'll get lots of 4s and 5s.
Azerbaijanhave the only other commercial pop song. It's quite a good one but no-one wants to go to Baku in 2019. They will get the usual compulsory votes from several neighbours and others who feel obliged for various business reasons so could be up there with the Top 10 team.
Bulgaria, after two excellent years when they were close to winning at times, are well fancied by the bookies at the moment, with a fourth or fifth place envisaged. I don't get it. The song, the singing, the lyrics, none of it works for me at all. I may be missing some magic that will be woven in a live performance but so far it leaves me cold and slightly annoyed at the odd English. It isn't going to win, or, at least I hope not as I haven't got that one covered.
So, assuming Lithuania don't make it, here is my very early prediction for the Top 10 (ignoring Israel):
Australia | Estonia Spain | France | Greece Azerbaijan | The Netherlands Denmark | Czech Republic | Norway
Unless someone puts in the most amazingly better live performance at a Semi Final or re-issues another version of their track, that is it this year. Saara Alto may squeeze in for Finland and someone somewhere will give Israel and Bulgaria bucket loads of votes. Russia too will get close but I don't think even the frail Yulia will be enough to pull in the numbers they usually expect to get. Hers is a decent song but not great. Politics may not help Russia this year either. Nothing wil, i am sory to say, help the United Kingdom's chances either. SuRie may be a nice young lady and was able to influence the crowd well at the show where she was selected. I just can't see he doing the same sufficiently well to get very far at all at the main event. the song simply isn't good enough and just doesn't stand any comparison with the others I've mentioned above. United Kingdom are currently over 400-1 and I fear that's generous. They'll be higher yet.
After coming close in each previous attempts to join the Eurovision crowd, Australia really does have a chance to take the prize this year. Confident and appealing singer will please the voters and the words are all jolly positive and good Euro stuff.
Tonight we'll find out whether Moscow has won the battle for Eurovision. Big Red has certainly thrown a huge amount of effort and one of its best stars into this thing. They really do mean business, and probably feel pretty hard done by after last year when they would have won had some juries not changed the numbers at the last moment.
Russia and Australia start the favourites bu quite a margin by I shall be brave and say that neither will win. I just have a feeling that the efforts and obvious attempts to appeal to everyone by Russia could backfire and make way for a simpler and more West-friendly nation. Australians may be super supporters of the whole Eurovision thing but, really, there should be a rule that says Australia can join in but we're not letting someone from a totally different part of the planet win. Dami Im is lovely, a super singer and demonstrates the power of make-up superbly but we already give South Korea a massive load of money with all the products we buy that they make without adding support for their recent emigrant to the pot. I am also a bit bothered by her odd sequencing of the lyrics. Paul Simon would definitely not approve, either, and I am a big fan of the guy.
So who will win?
This really is quite an odd year with no particularly good songs so I believe it will be a close-run affair. Here are my predictions, which, as always I have backed with cash at Betfair.
10 United Kingdom
Yes, I reckon the boys will make it this year. There's no-one vaguely like them and they have quite an appeal that our previous years' entries have not had. The singles selling well abroad too. But not that well.
9 Israel
If he gets things right, this guy could put on one of the better performances although I accept that Israel is not everyone's favourite nation, which is why I'm leaving him at 9. A worthy track, well-produced and the guy makes up each performance as he goes so it is very natural.
8 The Netherlands
Last year they nearly made it with their gentle strum-along song. This is pretty similar and is just a pleasant number with a nice guy singing with his band backing him. It doesn't do a great deal or make you want to go and buy it tomorrow but there is a certain charm about the track and the lead singer is a super performer who shouldn't put a step wrong. he;s been great i rehearsals all the way so far.
7 Cyprus
This is a bit of a long shot but this is a group that is unlike the rest of the crowd. Looking at how well The Disturbed have done recently then there may be some who vote for this band who rock along nicely with what is quite a catchy number. Their performances have been complicated and not that brilliant i some rehearsals but if they get it right there's a chance they'll be up there.
6 Australia
Dami Im will endear herself to lots and lots of fans I am sure and her dress and make-up and singing will be flawless. It's just a poor song in my view and, as I said before, Australia is a lovely country but it isn't in Europe. She will get enough votes to make the Top 10, though, easily.
5 France
This has been a huge hit across Europe and deservedly so as it is a good little pop song. It'll do well and many have predicted that it will win. I just have a feeling that it is almost too obvious with its ooo-ooo-ooo bits. The guy has also been missing quite a lot of notes in practice and relying on backing singers. he may do better than this but not a great deal worse.
4 Russia
After all their effort they will have to come close to the top. Sergei is a great singer, hardly ever puts a note wrong and also has a very difficult set of moves to do, with a tremendously impressive backscreen to work with as well. It's just, well, all a bit much. Russia will, though, get support and bags of votes from all their friends - and there are plenty, but not quite as many as before.
3 Italy
I think this is the best song of the evening and the singer is superb in terms of reaching the right notes and her delivery generally. She lacks a bit of personality which is a shame and she will need to smile and appeal a bit more than she has done so far to make this position but I feel there is much love for Italy and hope they do reach this position, or maybe even take the crown.
2 Ukraine
Controversial, this one. I may be completely wrong. The singer has written this herself and it breaks almost all the normal Eurovision 'How To Win' Book rules but that may even be in its favour. I don't understand all the lyrics or the history but suffice it to say she is unlikely to get any votes from Russia. If the singer manages to reach all the notes she has done in most rehearsals then this could be amazing. if she wails instead then I'll be very wrong and regret asking you to listen to it. Because it is so political, I fear that many voters will shy away from giving Ukraine the douze points and prevent her wining but I do expect to see her in the Top Ten.
1 Sweden
I am going for the double for Sweden. The song is not brilliant and the singer a bit bland but he is about the only modern thing on the menu apart from Justin Timerberlake and the Lithuanian guy. Hmm, maybe I should have backed the Lithuanian guy. No, Sweden are the only Scandinavian nation left in this thing this year which is remarkable but also likely to produce quite a few heavy points from their neighbours of whom there are plenty who have no-one else to vote for.
My personal favourites this year have been Austria and Croatia but, despite them both being well-produced numbers, the performers have been a little unreliable in rehearsals and the tracks are probably a bit old-fashioned for a 2016 contest.
Apart from Lithuanian's young fellow, the other two to look out for, each of whom could make the Top if they get things right and some others don't, are Malta's Ira and Armenia's Iveta. Both excellent singers with decent numbers who ought to be in the Top 10, if not the Top 5. One of them may, indeed, replace Italy and come fairly high but there may be some splitting of votes for dark-haired ballad singers this year and I shalls tick with Italy winning that particular battle.
This is Australia's Dami Im, the South Korean winner of their The Voice show. She is an extremely good singer and performer and, listening to some of her previous efforts, I came to the conclusion that she was a very likely winner this year if they found a suitable song.
If they found a suitable song... The trouble is, I am not sure they have. Sound Of Silence isn't the Paul Simon number but a new ballad, quite a strong number but which includes an odd pronunciation of the word silence with equal emphasis on each syllable for some reason I can't quite figure. It sounds wrong. Dami looks lovely. She hits every note where it needs to be hit and will, I am sure, be dressed perfectly and just wow the audience on the night with her grace and power. However, one slightly more catchy and less annoyingly phrased number could still beat her.
No, I don't know what that number is. If there isn't one then she may make it and I certainly placed a bet while her odds were very long but I feel she is just in the melting pot with Russia and others yet to emerge and winning will be more by luck than judgement.
To be honest, UK's entry is sounding quite catchy and if they can sort out the presentation to avoid the poor start and emphasise the mid-range stronger tones of the two boys and enhance catchy bits then they are in with a chance this year. I'll publish a video as and when there's a better one than their TV show win which was not very spectacular.
Oh dear. This reminds me of Charles Aznavour but without the charm. It's another bloke with a beard. Older this time and he does a spoken bit in low range, almost bring Telly Savalas in on the act too. He is also bald. It's a moderately pretty little number but I don't think the bald bloke with the big nose and, especially if he still has a strap across his head, will appeal a great deal to voters. Make your own mind up.
Croatia
They have a reasonable song with a Baltic feel about it at the start. The girl has a nice tone of voice and the quarter tone flicker always appeals to me. It is definitely one of the better Balkan entries but it remains a bit weak and needs more to make it memorable and get attention. The song is called Lighthouse and it is, indeed, quite 'light' but won't light up the house on the night.
Australia
I have only heard snippets of the Australian entry but it has a superb singer doing it in Dami Im. She has a South Korean background and so Eurovision will have not only the oddity of an Australian entry again this year but also, I think, one of the first singers from South Korea or even a country in that area. She is popular there and won Australia's The Voice with some impressive covers.
Titled Sound of Silence, I did wonder whether they had somehow managed to tweak Paul Simon's song into an entry! It's not as good as I had expected. The song doesn't flow brilliantly from what I've heard and success will be down to how much of Dami's personality comes across and adds to the overall impression. I would not, though, underestimate her ability to win this thing.
As soon as I get it I will publish the song in this blog.
