Monday, May 02, 2016
Russia Crash but Armenia Impress at Rehearsal Day 1
The first day of rehearsals seems to have had an impact on some of the views as to who will do well on the Big Night. Russia, the major favourites since the start, had a difficult day. The staging seems so complex and requires all sorts of manoeuvres by the singer, few of which actually succeeded today. Having said that, Russia are renowned for not giving up and will, I am sure, put every conceivable effort into make things go perfectly on the night. For that reason, they may have broader odds now and, for the first time, France are 1st equal but they do remain at the top.
The young lady from Armenia got the only real appreciative applause from the various people watching, a sort of press gallery plus hangers-on and relatives I suppose. That does say something, though, and I get the feeling she impressed everyone. Armenia has been in the Top 10 for weeks already. This put her in the Top 5 for the first time.
The Netherlands and Hungary had a reasonable day but didn't do enough to move their odds much. They have each been consistently between 14 and 18 and seem to be around there still, Hungary climbing a few places but there are still 14 higher.
Croatia is the big disappointment for me so far. Once as high as 3rd, they are now 23rd. I can only assume that the singer simply isn't doing a good job at all. Or that expectations were way too high at the outset. Indeed, Croatia would,as the betting stands at the time of writing, not get through the Semi Final. There would be some recompense in that would mean Austria, another of my own favourites, would get through in their place. Group 1 is a tough one this year.
Although several others also rehearsed they are pretty unlikely to get very far so I won't bother with their reviews at this time. There is always some strange freak event that puts through a really bad act from the Semi Finals and I can comment at that time if and when it happens! For now, suffice it to say that San Marino, Moldova, Greece didn't exactly move from their 1000-1 odds and Finland, at 800-1 stay pretty much out there too!!
One surprise beneficiary of the misfortune of others seems to be our UK boys who have not only made the Top 20 but reached the dizzy heights of 18th equal! They are the only act who have closed odds so significantly as the chart above shows. It does also show, however, that they have not exactly wobbled much further down since mid-April. I still think they'll make it a fair bit higher. But then I always do overrate UK's chances.