We won't really know until the actual rehearsals get under way. Below is the schedule for them, courtesy of Eurovision World . I think the big movements of opinion and potential stars of the show or dumb acts will be revealed during those first four days and, by 4 May, we'll have a good idea of whether the current Top 10 are reasonably safe or whether one or two acts that had been written off to date manage to grab people's attention and change things.
The host and Big 5 are always the last to reveal their live hands and that will be late on 4 May.
So far Italy, Bulgaria, Sweden and Portugal have held their positions and are the clear leaders. Belgium has drifted with some reports that the singer is quite disappointing but she can't be that bad as she's still rated 5th.
This is also a good time to look at who should qualify as most acts do actually have to get through the Semi Finals first!
In Group 1, this is how it looks now:
Pretty certain to qualify:
Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Australia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Greece
With only 3 places remaining Finland, Poland, Georgia and Iceland will be the ones to watch. Moldova is the amusing outsider who might scrape in at the expense of one of them. Theirs is the cheeky number with the sexy video but the video will not help on the night! Their 500-1 odds would tumble massively but I can't imagine them getting far after that.
In Group 2 the only pretty definite qualifiers would be:
Bulgaria and Ireland
After that, no-one really stands out between, Romania, Denmark, Hungary and The Netherlands, these being the ones that have shown some recent improvement so may be likely to perform well
With 4 spaces left it could be almost anyone but I'd guess FYR Macedonia, Israel, Austria and Belarus. Belarus could be the surprise act this year. They're totally out of the running at nearly 600-1 at this time but, if they do get through, expect those to tumble. I reckon they could even make Top 10 now that Russia is not competing and they may be the nation to collect those votes.
Incidentally, the bookies don't even have Ireland as expected to qualify again this year, being 11th in the Semi Final 2 odds but at the time of writing they are at 8th place in the Final! I can only assume that there is some perception of how the voting system must be likely to favour others. I still reckon Ireland will make it this time.
San Marino really don't have a bad song or act either but they're out at 1000-1 overall and even at 11-1 just to qualify. They're certainly a lot better than many of the others in the pretty uninspiring Group 2
| 1st Rehearsal | |
| Sweden | 09:00 - 09:30 |
| Georgia | 09:40 - 10:10 |
| Australia | 10:20 - 10:50 |
| Albania | 11:00 - 11:30 |
| Belgium | 12:40 - 13:10 |
| Montenegro | 13:20 - 13:50 |
| Finland | 14:00 - 14:30 |
| Azerbaijan | 15:00 - 15:30 |
| Portugal | 15:40 - 16:10 |
| 1st Rehearsal | |
| Greece | 09:00 - 09:30 |
| Poland | 09:40 - 10:10 |
| Moldova | 10:20 - 10:50 |
| Iceland | 11:00 - 11:30 |
| Czech Republic | 12:40 - 13:10 |
| Cyprus | 13:20 - 13:50 |
| Armenia | 14:00 - 14:30 |
| Slovenia | 15:00 - 15:30 |
| Latvia | 15:40 - 16:10 |
| 1st Rehearsal | |
| Serbia | 09:00 - 09:30 |
| Austria | 09:40 - 10:10 |
| FYR Macedonia | 10:20 - 10:50 |
| Malta | 11:00 - 11:30 |
| Romania | 12:40 - 13:10 |
| Netherlands | 13:20 - 13:50 |
| Hungary | 14:00 - 14:30 |
| Denmark | 15:00 - 15:30 |
| Ireland | 15:40 - 16:10 |
| 1st Rehearsal | |
| San Marino | 09:00 - 09:30 |
| Croatia | 09:40 - 10:10 |
| Norway | 10:20 - 10:50 |
| Switzerland | 11:00 - 11:30 |
| Belarus | 12:40 - 13:10 |
| Bulgaria | 13:20 - 13:50 |
| Lithuania | 14:00 - 14:30 |
| Estonia | 15:00 - 15:30 |
| Israel | 15:40 - 16:10 |
| 2nd Rehearsal | |
| Sweden | 09:00 - 09:20 |
| Georgia | 09:25 - 09:45 |
| Australia | 09:50 - 10:10 |
| Albania | 10:15 - 10:35 |
| Belgium | 10:40 - 11:00 |
| Montenegro | 12:05 - 12:25 |
| Finland | 12:30 - 12:50 |
| Azerbaijan | 12:55 - 13:15 |
| Portugal | 13:20 - 13:40 |
| Greece | 13:45 - 14:05 |
| Poland | 14:30 - 14:50 |
| Moldova | 14:55 - 15:15 |
| Iceland | 16:20 - 16:40 |
| Czech Republic | 16:45 - 17:05 |
| Cyprus | 17:10 - 17:30 |
| 2nd Rehearsal | |
| Armenia | 09:00 - 09:20 |
| Slovenia | 09:25 - 09:45 |
| Latvia | 09:50 - 10:10 |
| Serbia | 10:15 - 10:35 |
| Austria | 10:40 - 11:00 |
| FYR Macedonia | 12:05 - 12:25 |
| Malta | 12:30 - 12:50 |
| Romania | 12:55 - 13:15 |
| 1st Rehearsal | |
| Ukraine | 14:05 - 14:35 |
| Italy | 14:40 - 15:10 |
| Spain | 15:15 - 15:45 |
| Germany | 15:50 - 16:20 |
| United Kingdom | 17:35 - 18:05 |
| France | 18:10 - 18:40 |
| 2nd Rehearsal | |
| Netherlands | 09:00 - 09:20 |
| Hungary | 09:25 - 09:45 |
| Denmark | 09:50 - 10:10 |
| Ireland | 10:15 - 10:35 |
| San Marino | 10:40 - 11:00 |
| Croatia | 12:05 - 12:25 |
| Norway | 12:30 - 12:50 |
| Switzerland | 12:55 - 13:15 |
| Belarus | 13:20 - 13:40 |
| Bulgaria | 14:05 - 14:25 |
| Lithuania | 14:30 - 14:50 |
| Estonia | 14:55 - 15:15 |
| Israel | 15:20 - 15:40 |
| 2nd Rehearsal | |
| Ukraine | 09:00 - 09:20 |
| Italy | 09:25 - 09:45 |
| Spain | 09:50 - 10:10 |
| Germany | 10:15 - 10:35 |
| United Kingdom | 10:40 - 11:00 |
| France | 11:05 - 11:25 |
| Opening & interval acts | 12:30 - 15:30 |
| Lighting & video programming | 15:30 - 17:30 |
| Viewing Camera crew Semi 1 | 11:00 - 14:00 |
| Semi-final 1 Dress Rehearsal 1 | 15:00 - 17:25 |
| Pre-show | 20:00 - 21:00 |
| Semi-final 1 Jury Rehearsal | 21:00 - 23:10 |
| Viewing Camera crew Jury Rehearsal | 12:00 - 14:00 |
| Semi-final 1 Dress Rehearsal 3 | 15:00 - 17:10 |
| Viewing Camera crew Dress Rehearsal 3 | 17:30 - 19:00 |
| Pre-show | 20:00 - 21:00 |
| Semi-final 1 LIVE | 21:00 - 23:10 |
| Press Conference 10 qualifiers | 23:30 - 00:10 |
| Viewing Camera crew Semi 2 | 10:00 - 13:00 |
| Semi-final 2 Dress Rehearsal 1 | 15:00 - 17:25 |
| Pre-show | 20:00 - 21:00 |
| Semi-final 2 Jury Rehearsal | 21:00 - 23:10 |
| Viewing Camera crew Jury Rehearsal | 12:00 - 14:00 |
| Semi-final 1 Dress Rehearsal 3 | 15:00 - 17:10 |
| Viewing Camera crew Dress Rehearsal 3 | 17:30 - 19:00 |
| Pre-show | 20:00 - 21:00 |
| Semi-final 2 LIVE | 21:00 - 23:10 |
| Press Conference 10 qualifiers | 23:30 - 00:10 |
| Grand Final running order announcement | TBA |
| Opening Grand Final - all finalists | 11:30 - 13:00 |
| Grand Final Dress Rehearsal 1 | 14:00 - 17:00 |
| Viewing Camera crew Dress Rehearsal 1 | 17:00 - 19:00 |
| Junior Eurovision 2017 Press Conference | 17:20 - 17:40 |
| Pre-show | 20:00 - 21:00 |
| Grand Final Jury Rehearsal | 21:00 - 00:30 |
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