With just two weeks to go before we know who makes the Final, and a result on 22 May not much further away, it is a good time to look at how the competitors are performing in the eyes of those seeking to make some money from them. In the past this has been a generally good guide - but the bookies do rather better at predicting the Top 10 than the winner.
At the moment they say it is a three-horse race. Malta has been out in front since the initial release of her track. Very briefly, in March, Switzerland took the top spot but that's been the only change. France is the third member of the group and has always been 2nd or 3rd. Recently, odds have shortened quite significantly for both Malta and France which would seem to indicate that their rehearsals or recent re-issues have gone down well with fans and observers. Malta have a ghastly 'statement song' which I fear may follow the similarly horrible Netta's winner for Israel three years ago. There is a worrying trend here: the 2018 victory for Netta was, to all intents and purposes, two 'Eurovision' years earlier, and before that in 2016, Jamala made a political statement and, two years before that in 2014, we had Conchita doing the girl with a beard statement thing. So Malta have a lot going for them this year.
I just hope the bookies are wrong.
France and Switzerland, in complete contrast, have most impressive songs with most impressive artists and would be well-deserving winners. I get the feeling that France's singer has no problem with a live performance either, whereas Switzerland's may not be quite as familiar to the big stage and this gives France the edge.
Next, in a group their own now, is Italy. They and Finland each have a rock contribution to make and, as the only two of the genre, they'll each pick up bundles of points for that reason alone. Most should go to Italy and their 4th position seems assured and odds have firmed up for them recently which seems to indicate that they can repeat on stage what we see in the videos.
Iceland and Lithuania have to be the next group and, until mid-April they were pretty equally fancied for 5th or 6th place. Each were at one time thought of as potential winners but those hopes faded when the songs were just not going down as well as their 2020 entries had done. There seems to be some residual faith, however, in the lesser 2021 tracks which has kept them in sight of the win. If quirkiness is to be this year's route to the top then either could still take the prize. Iceland would be popular winners, especially with the Eurovision film still very much in people's minds. A pity that song wasn't entered!
Lithuania's odds have drifted a lot recently which, one assumes, is an indication that they're not doing well live or in developing more fans. Iceland are hanging in there and will win the quirky vote.
Bulgaria and Sweden always get mentioned in Top Ten talk nowadays for Eurovision. Bulgaria have had several close calls in recent years and, whether it is a geographic thing or just good choice of material, they grab lots of points each year. Sweden spend so much time and effort in deciding who will represent them that they produce some rather committee-like tracks by competent but slightly boring people as a result. The exceptional doesn't survive that sort of selection process. Once again, Sweden have a good pop song, well produced and sung but it is instantly forgettable and will make little impression. They'll get votes because everyone votes for Sweden except the United Kingdom for Abba. Bulgaria have a modern track, a brave entry but it may be just too quiet or uneventful to score as heavily as it will need to to shift the big Malta girl.
After that, it's a long way down to the first real pop songs. Cyprus and Greece both know what they're doing in this respect and have two good artists and reasonably commercial songs too. I am surprised that neither seems to have gathered much of a following. They'll be Top Ten and, if the voters are in a pop mood, one could win. It's more likely to be Cyprus, who would dearly love to take revenge for Fuego not making it last time out. Greece have seen their odds fade quite a lot from mid-April which makes me wonder that they'll produce the goods live after all.
There's a group of oddities next, with Finland's heavy rock, Norways' ridiculous white angel, Romania's attempt to do a Bulgaria and San Marino, yes, San Marino are very likely to make the Final this year! San Marino have a terribly bad track again but it's just not as terribly bad as previous years and is almost commercial so it will get some votes. Indeed, it's basically the same song that Azerbaijan might have given us but their chances of getting in will depend on who the President's men can bribe rather than the strength of their song this year.
Neither Finland, Norway, Romania nor San Marino will win this year but I would not be surprised to see one or two make the Top Ten and oust a poor effort on the night by one of the preceding countries.
Looking now at who else will qualify, we have to expect to see Russia and Ukraine once more doing battle, although this time on the stage unless Russia takes the opportunity to enter Kharkov while everyone is watching Go-A and their remarkable track. If the traditional and quirky vote in the same way then Ukraine may surprise us all. They could even win but that would probably surprise the band as much as the bookies. Russia have a terrible entry this year. Not something anyone will want to listen to for long. Also from the same part of the world, little Moldova should be there and, as is almost traditional now, there will be some pretty girls encouraging men to do things that men like to do to pretty girls. It is quite extraordinary how much subtlety is missing in Moldova's song writing. It makes me smile, though, and they're very likely to make the cut to the Final.
Israel should make it through with a decent enough pop song that will get a reasonable number of votes if they perform it well in the Semis. Who else gets through from their group is not obvious. the contenders are Belgium, Croatia and Azerbaijan, each with a half-reasonable entry. Croatia's is very commercial and may give them the edge if Belgium's professionalism leaves votes uninspired. Azerbaijan probably have the better entry of the three but their odds have gone very bad in the last day or so. I guess they've cocked up on some performance or not given enough money to some official - or, now I think about it, the higher odds suit those placing bets on them, don't they? Ah, OK, now that might be the reason!
From Group 1 there is just one other country who deserve to be in the Final but, because of the strength of songs in that group, may struggle to get in, and that's Ireland. Their song is brilliant and one of the most commercial in the whole competition. If it gets a chance and the girl performs it well live then there's a good chance that voters could be persuaded. As it stands, not many see or hear her and she simply may not get the chance. She needs to get past both Azerbaijan, Croatia and one of Israel, Ukraine or Belgium to get in. That is a tall order indeed. It probably won't happen which is a great shame.
In complete contrast, the other group has countries like Portugal, Serbia and Denmark which are expected to get through. Maybe Austria instead of one of those. But with Portugal at 370-1 and Austria at 800-1 you can imagine how bad their entries are, which makes it all the more shameful that Ireland can't make it. Despite their unlikely qualification, Ireland are still at around 250-1 whereas Denmark at 600-1 should qualify! Crazy.
Other countries worth mentioning are Australia and North Macedonia. Australia, one tends to think, would get put in the Final purely because of their enthusiasm and support for the competition. It seems slightly rude to say "sorry you're not in" when they've offered to come from the other side of the whole globe. Their song isn't bad but I can only assume that they've messed up big time in recent performances. They're not going to sing live, though, so perhaps they might squeeze in after all but goodness know how far they'll get when they're out at 650-1. North Macedonia appeared to have a really good and talented singer this year, with a prospect of creating another surprise run like they had last time. Voters like quality too. But their odds put them beyond the pale at 850-1 so something really is not going well for them.
So, for the Final, here are my predictions (but not in expected finish order!):
Malta | France | Switzerland
Italy | Iceland | Lithuania
Cyprus | Bulgaria | Sweden | Finland | Norway | Greece | Romania | San Marino
Russia | Moldova | Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Israel | Portugal | Serbia | Austria
Germany | The Netherlands | Spain | United Kingdom
The four at the bottom of this list will get through to the Final automatically (as do France and Italy). Germany has a track that will either do really well or be very much disliked which, as it is called I Don't Like Hate, seems a bit unfair. I had it as a potential winner at the start as I imagined the singer would be someone people would warm to and enjoy watching, with all the rainbow appeal that he exudes. I seem to be wrong, so far, although I still expect him to do better than his 400-1 odds imply.
The Netherlands clearly don't want to host the thing again and have submitted a weird entry that reminds me of Portugal's winner a few years ago but without the edge that had at the time. The singer and colleagues are competent but is is so left field that it's not in the same park this year.
Spain's massive odds of 900-1 are of the order that suggest the world is more likely to end or Christian Scientists are proved right about whatever it is they say. I cannot see why, though. The singer and song seem both excellent to me, if a little sad. But the singer reaches all the notes and the song is well constructed. Quite why it is rated so poorly, and always has been, is a mystery to me. Having said that, I have found Spain's entries really good on several occasions in recent years and yet they have wallowed near or at the bottom of the table each time. Maybe it is just because it's Spain. They've few friends.
Lastly, appropriately enough, my own country, United Kingdom. Dreadful song, meaningless drivel, half-baked effort at a performance. The guy may be nice enough and his brother's done well in the pop scene but this, like his 2020 entry, is just not going anywhere but down at the foot of the right hand side of the ruddy table. It is sad, depressing and bloody annoying too that we cannot send a decent entry to this competition. The whole things seems to be managed by the BBC and they have singularly failed to produce a decent entry year after year after year. We've had the ancient Engelbert Humperdinck and Bonnie Tyler, most of whose fans died years ago. We've had a slew of also-rans, X Factor contestants (not winners, note) and strange new acts we'd never heard of before. Only Jade Ewen, with help from Andrew Lloyd-Webber's writing and production talent and Jessica Garlick have made the Top 10 this Century, that's over 20 years!
We have masses of home-grown talent that is doing well in our charts and who sell all over the world. We really do need to put one of our confident and commercial groups on the stage, with a number that's written well and designed to appeal to Europe. I don't believe that none of our current crop of Top Twenty artists want to represent us in the competition. Yes, it has a certain style and cache about it which some artists do not want to be associated with but the days of Bang Bang-a-bang and Congratulations have long gone. Gimmicks are largely out, unless you're from Moldova, although, quite frankly, just having a reasonably young, appealing and well-known and successful artist representing United Kingdom would be pretty much a gimmick these days.
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