Tuesday, October 09, 2012

X Factor UK Ella and 11 Dark Horses

Look at Betfair's odds at the time of writing (Tuesday evening, 9 October). The odds are greater for someone not actually in the final 12 to be the 2nd elimination than they are for Ella to go!

Her position as favourite, not just to survive this weekend, but actually to win have been cut even further and are now under 2.0 (which means you win less than $1 for each $1 bet).

This chart shows how the odds have dropped - they can't go much lower  now - and you can also see that nearly half of all the bets placed have been on her.

Remarkable. If you think that someone else really stands a chance then now is a good time to place a bet. I'm not encouraging this and always hedge my bets so that (almost) whatever happens I break even at worst. It should be said that the bookies have been proven wrong in the past too although, apart from Little Mix last year which totally caught us all by surprise and must have made someone a fortune, they usually get the top 3 about right, just the wrong way round. Leona Lewis was the last early favourite to win and even she was at 3s and 4s.

25 for UnionJ is attractive. If their fan base grows - Louis may be frustrating but he knows how to build support for boy bands - and they manage to do lively covers, stay in tune and please the fans then who knows. There's a long time to go between now and the final.

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