The weeks are passing by and it seems that no-one has affected their chances one way or the other to any great degree so far. Entrants have begun circulating amongst radio and TV shows across Europe and people should now be beginning to recognise a few of the tracks hoping to pull off victory this year in Eurovision.
The Netherlands remain the bookies' favourite but I still see them coming somewhere else in the Top 10.
Switzerland have possibly the most commercial track this year and punters have been supportive, with several good reviews. They have pushed Russia into 3rd place for now.
Italy have been one of the best nations to advance in the polls at this stage, currently in the lead in what was once a three-way battle with Sweden and Iceland. Now Greece, Cyprus and Malta have joined the sub-20-1 group recently. Malta have dropped out over the last couple of days but these nations all seem very comfortably placed ahead of the candidate for 10th place, Norway.
Norway have slipped quite a lot and now rank pretty much with Portugal who have been at 11th place almost since betting opened.
Slovenia's pleasant little ditty lies in 12th place and that is really it. All the other contenders are at 100-1 or much more and are not expected to do much this year by those parting company with money at this time.
I still would not rule out North Macedonia and their current odds of 250-1 could make someone a fortune if they were to do as well as I suggested they might a while ago. That's the one long-shot I can provide. North Macedonia are in a Group which has a great many nations almost certain to qualify and it is still touch-and-go whether they'll make it to the Final because of who they're up against. Assuming both Armenia and Azerbaijan make it (and they usually do) then North Macedonia will have to beat both Albania and Ireland to get to the Final.
Austria might have had a chance with a particularly emotional number, well sung and constructed, but which also is in the same group and is really not thought to be likely to make it at all at 700-1.
There is never anything certain about Eurovision other than Greece and Cyprus voting for each other and they should both get the chance this year. Greece have a particularly experienced and good singer and she should do well. It will be an interesting competition between the two but that may actually affect each of their chances to win. I suspect that one or the other will get many non-neighbouring countries' votes whereas last year Cyprus damn nearly took the prize with Greece out of the way.
Iceland are really, in my view, the main contenders now. This is quite different to my view a few weeks ago but they are a stand-out act, very different from everyone else and will either be loved or hated by the masses. Those who love the anti-establishment, anti-Capitalist and anti-almost-everything-other-than-hate stuff will give it top marks and I have a feeling that there will be plenty of them. Every other act will get a few 12s here and a few 10s there but none, to my reckoning, in great abundance. So the winner will be whoever achieves either most 6s or 5s or Iceland.
That's all very much In Russia's favour, even more so by the paucity of any other Soviet family entry. In the Final I reckon there'll be Slovenia, Azerbaijan and maybe Armenia or a distant outsider like Belarus. That's all. So all those family nations will be giving the few that make it their best marks and that may be enough on its own to put Russia in an easy 2nd place. After that, it's any one's guess!
Much now, could depend on whether any of the acts can really impress and cause a bit of an Iceland -type stir with a star performance somewhere. So far nothing much has been heard of the UK entry which looks like finishing in the lower regions yet again.
1 Iceland
2 Russia | Italy | Switzerland
5 Greece
6 Malta | Norway
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