With just over a month to go it's a good time to see how the main contenders have been faring at the bookies.
What is evident is that The Netherlands have stayed clear favourites ever since Russia's entry was released. Whilst not bad, the second attempt by Sergei to bring Europe to Moscow has not really excited anyone much. However, as the only 'Eastern' nation that seems to stand a chance, Russia is very likely to win by default in that all their friendly neighbours and those who do not wish to offend Big Red will give them bags of votes near the top end of the scale and that may well be sufficient in a year with no obvious stand-out so far.
The only other ex-Eastern bloc country to stand much of chance is Slovenia but their still out at about 60-1 and haven't changed over the months much at all.
As the artists start to perform at various places you get feedback from people there and it is apparent who has impressed audiences and who may have been rather disappointing.
Iceland seem to have suffered most in this respect. They have a pretty mad entry anyway which will annoy many but which is so out there on the left field that it is unique this year. That could well mean that Iceland attract all the odd votes in their entirety and score well as a result. That's presumably what the logic was when their video came out and there was an almost commercial version of a track about being non-commercial. You could almost imagine it winning. At one point they were second to Russia and stayed in the Top 5 for a long time. Now, though, I am guessing that some poor live performances or negative publicity has lost them some backing.
Greece have suffered too. Again, I am assuming that the singer just hasn't been performing well. The three girls from Greece, Cyprus and Malta have been jostling for position throughout the last few weeks. Malta and Cyprus seem to be doing the better job now.
Competing for 2nd place with Russia are Sweden, Italy and Switzerland. Sweden have something just like Russia. An OK song. A good singer and a song that sounds like it was written by a committee. So it should keep the Swedes in the Top 10 but it really isn't going to be something that we remember afterwards. In fact, they may even get a shock if other nations decide to say that they've had enough of the formula type of entry and give another Nordic entry a chance. Not Iceland, hopefully, but maybe Norway or Denmark will get a look-in.
Switzerland have a surprisingly good pop song but, as it is about some guy appealing to girls on the dance floor I suspect it may not win the PC votes. So it's good enough to win but it would be seen as a retrograde step, I suspect, and various bots would be charged up ready to ensure it just misses the Top spot on the night.
Italy have, in my view, the best chance of defeating the Ruskies and The Netherlands and winning this year. They have consistently come up with remarkably well-written songs over recent years and have been very much in with a chance each time. This may seem one of their weaker efforts at the start but it grows on you and has a suitably anti-establishment theme which will satisfy the Icelanders while not upsetting anyone else particularly.
If the Russians don't use their hacking powers to win then they may accept the Italian venue for 2020 and move swathes of votes in Italy's direction.
The Netherlands entry, just like many in the recent past, is very pleasant and warm and soft and unoffensive. I am happy to play it at home and I can see it will have plenty of appeal. Whether it will warrant lots of 12 pointers I don't know. The Netherlands is one of those nations other countries feel they can vote for and not cause problems with their governments. It's a pretty open and Eurovision-friendly nation with lost of posters about sex, sculptures of bits of one's anatomy in parks and how they're happy for people to do whatever they like wherever they like within reason. The Netherlands is a natural 8 point vote for almost anyone and they'll do well. Win? I still don't think so.
At the moment I favour Big Red and Italy but watch out for Iceland and North Macedonia if she gets past the Semis (which is touch-an-go as things stand at the moment).
For my home readers, I am afraid that our nice chap and pleasant song is going nowhere fast this year, despite there not being much by way of competition. The UK will gather a few votes along the way and maybe get several steps up from the bottom if the chap does a good job on the night. But it's another forgettable evening for the UK, I'm afraid. Over in Ireland, too, I fear there will be a lot of disappointment as their entry is not even expected to make it through the Semis. I am surprised as it seems quite a good entry but I can only imagine that the girl isn't performing well or there's something people just don't like about it. Odd, but there you go. The axis would have to stretch up to 350 for the UK odds and 700 for Ireland!
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