Likely contenders for the the mad, mad Eurovision 2020

These are the likely contenders as I see things at the moment. Now, I haven't heard all the songs as some haven't even been released yet so we're talking of Top 10 or perhaps higher finishes but plenty of good odds ought to be available at this stage.

You'll be glad to know that Ireland have a great entry this year with a real pop star and a great track that will be a hit anyway and has a good chance on the Eurovision stage too. Huge odds too as Ireland have struggled even to qualify recently.

Australia have a good entry too. A super actress / singer playing a slightly mad role which could well catch the emotions on the night. The country always throws everything it has into the competition and is going to win before long. This could be their year. Again, great odds at the moment.

Malta have one hell of a massive singer - some big-voiced and limbed kid who won their X Factor competition last year and blew everyone away with her raw talent. Not my style by any stretch of the imagination but she's got Eurovision written all over her ample frame. I'm backing her even before the song is issued. Modest odds but look around.

Romania often do well as they attract votes from all directions. Maybe not a winner but a great entry that will go down well again. Similar style to the Australian - a sort of mad, slightly left field theme this year. Much fancied.

Russia will win again before long. They've come really close and will be throwing the Putin sink behind their entry as well as tweaking our social media feeds to promote it. The band is the weirdest punk bunch but they are very well-known across Eastern Europe. Probably banned here but they've had huge hits with the most crazy stuff and their YouTube stuff has visitors in the many millions. Again, I haven't heard the actual track - no-one outside the Kremlin has - but I can almost guarantee that it will run all the others a close race. Odds are not great but if it is as commercial or crazy as I expect then they'll shorten damn quickly and you won't get a look in later. Pop a fiver on at least.

Lastly the weirdest of all is Iceland and yet it is also strangely tuneful and very memorable. Someone has designed the suits and stuff very well so there's this tall, long-haired gormless-looking twit and a bunch of nerds doing a dance that would make even me look cool. It's a blend of jazz and stuff I can't put a name to but I am convinced it will be Top 5 and the odds will tumble. They're also not great as people have already latched on to this one, unfortunately.

There may well be others in contention but I have a strong feeling this year that one of these will be the winner and certainly Top 10.

More another day. UK is very average. Lithuania are current bookies' favourite. Likely Top 10 but nothing special and it simply can't compete with the ones I've mentioned. Its odds are way too short at this very early stage to even consider a bet. They'll lengthen for sure.

I may need to add Norway to this list as the sensible entry.

Eurovision. How Low Can The Netherlands Go?

With just over a month to go it's a good time to see how the main contenders have been faring at the bookies.



What is evident is that The Netherlands have stayed clear favourites ever since Russia's entry was released. Whilst not bad, the second attempt by Sergei to bring Europe to Moscow has not really excited anyone much. However, as the only 'Eastern' nation that seems to stand a chance, Russia is very likely to win by default in that all their friendly neighbours and those who do not wish to offend Big Red will give them bags of votes near the top end of the scale and that may well be sufficient in  a year with no obvious stand-out so far.

The only other ex-Eastern bloc country to stand much of chance is Slovenia but their still out at about 60-1 and haven't changed over the months much at all.

As the artists start to perform at various places you get feedback from people there and it is apparent who has impressed audiences and who may have been rather disappointing.

Iceland seem to have suffered most in this respect. They have a pretty mad entry anyway which will annoy many but which is so out there on the left field that it is unique this year. That could well mean that Iceland attract all the odd votes in their entirety and score well as a result. That's presumably what the logic was when their video came out and there was an almost commercial version of a track about being non-commercial. You could almost imagine it winning. At one point they were second to Russia and stayed in the Top 5 for a long time. Now, though, I am guessing that some poor live performances or negative publicity has lost them some backing.

Greece have suffered too. Again, I am assuming that the singer just hasn't been performing well. The three girls from Greece, Cyprus and Malta have been jostling for position throughout the last few weeks. Malta and Cyprus seem to be doing the better job now.

Competing for 2nd place with Russia are Sweden, Italy and Switzerland. Sweden have something just like Russia. An OK song. A good singer and a song that sounds like it was written by a committee. So it should keep the Swedes in the Top 10 but it really isn't going to be something that we remember afterwards. In fact, they may even get a shock if other nations decide to say that they've had enough of the formula type of entry and give another Nordic entry a chance. Not Iceland, hopefully, but maybe Norway or Denmark will get a look-in.

Switzerland have a surprisingly good pop song but, as it is about some guy appealing to girls on the dance floor I suspect it may not win the PC votes. So it's good enough to win but it would be seen as a retrograde step, I suspect, and various bots would be charged up ready to ensure it just misses the Top spot on the night.

Italy have, in my view, the best chance of defeating the Ruskies and The Netherlands and winning this year. They have consistently come up with remarkably well-written songs over recent years and have been very much in with a chance each time. This may seem one of their weaker efforts at the start but it grows on you and has a suitably anti-establishment theme which will satisfy the Icelanders while not upsetting anyone else particularly.

If the Russians don't use their hacking powers to win then they may accept the Italian venue for 2020 and move swathes of votes in Italy's direction.

The Netherlands entry, just like many in the recent past, is very pleasant and warm and soft and unoffensive. I am happy to play it at home and I can see it will have plenty of appeal. Whether it will warrant lots of 12 pointers I don't know. The Netherlands is one of those nations other countries feel they can vote for and not cause problems with their governments. It's a pretty open and Eurovision-friendly nation with lost of posters about sex, sculptures of bits of one's anatomy in parks and how they're happy for people to do whatever they like wherever they like within reason. The Netherlands is a natural 8 point vote for almost anyone and they'll do well. Win? I still don't think so.

At the moment I favour Big Red and Italy but watch out for Iceland and North Macedonia if she gets past the Semis (which is touch-an-go as things stand at the moment).

For my home readers, I am afraid that our nice chap and pleasant song is going nowhere fast this year, despite there not being much by way of competition. The UK will gather a few votes along the way and maybe get several steps up from the bottom if the chap does a good job on the night. But it's another forgettable evening for the UK, I'm afraid. Over in Ireland, too, I fear there will be a lot of disappointment as their entry is not even expected to make it through the Semis. I am surprised as it seems quite a good entry but I can only imagine that the girl isn't performing well or there's something people just don't like about it. Odd, but there you go. The axis would have to stretch up to 350 for the UK odds and 700 for Ireland!

Global freezing: Iceland scary 2nd favourites to win Eurovision

This, believe it or not, is the second favourite with the bookies to win Eurovision out of the 25 songs released so far.

Portugal have also gone for the weird and wonderful but commentators will probably coin a phrase that makes the strange noises fit some genre or another. With their tuneful solo victory still fresh in our memories, no-one likes to be rude but I do have to remind you that Portugal came last - in Lisbon - last year.

Sweden's incredibly lengthy process to pick an entry goes on and on but they are down to choosing between two at last so maybe they'll push the likes of Iceland down the rankings soon enough. After all this time, you tend to expect something that is guaranteed to be top 4. From the songs released so far, though, that shouldn't be too tough. I'd even give UK a chance as things stand at the moment.

Worrying times.

Iceland may have to change those graphics for Eurovision

I nearly always find Iceland's entries either excellent or intriguing and occasionally both. This year they have gone more commercial and seem to want to combine the Loreen effect with a background graphic effect to grab the votes.



They certainly grab attention and at one point I thought I was watching the Smoke Monster in Lost! Whilst very effective in parts, the shadows of hands, apparently without thumbs, were simply creepy and slightly worrying.

It could even be a future theme for X Files too.

Hungary, The Netherlands and Sweden join the Top 10 contenders

Latvia

A jolly song about a Cake to bake. OK. Cool and cheerful song that will have some panel members tapping their feet and maybe voting enough to get them in the Top 10 this year.

Estonia

Tanja has a go at Loreen's style with the solid electro beat and a convenient male dancer. She shows a lot more flesh than her Swedish predecessor and moves around a bit quicker. It's a decent track but I don't see it being that popular or unpopular.

Sweden

So we know they'll be making a good effort. Almost all their entries stand as potential chart acts in their own right. This is no exception. More serious ballad, building as ballads usually do in Eurovision to a drum-assisted crescendo but not too annoyingly so. The echo is quite important but I am not sure she'll get that on the night. Neverthess this will appeal across the board and see Sweden into the Top 10, and, I reckon, quite high there too.

Iceland

A bit crazy - all good stuff about not having prejudice, a bit too politically correct for me and too obviously put together for Eurovision. Not something I want to play again and doubt whether many others will but it's a safe vote for countries so expect it to get enough points to keep away from the bottom.

Albania

They always seem to make the main competition and have some pretty individual entries that you either love or hate. This one has the ballad and bloke with a guitar doing rock stuff. The girl looks angry most of the time and it's an Evanescence type of track. Strong but it lacks any hook or, to be honest, much appeal - that singer isn't particularly watchable.

Azerbaijan

They'd love to win again and do keep making strong efforts. Here they come again this year with a potential #2. Pretty girl with gentle song that sounds like it ought to tell a story.




Nice enough but at digging out burning bullets from his chest I began to wonder what it was all bout. Ah, of course, it's all about trying to win this thing and that's not a bad effort at all.

Ukraine

Well, you have to worry with the title Tick Tock. The country will be getting some sympathy votes I suspect this year. I hope the singer doesn't come from Crimea or they'll be all kinds of problems. Assuming she isn't and that Ukraine hasn't been wiped off the map in its entirety then this is a jolly number but a bit desperate and tries a bit too hard. As always the girl is lovely and we'll be guaranteed some pleasant viewing. Sure, left hand side of the board but not a great deal more this year.

Belgium

It really is time Belgium did better. here we have someone who looks like he won a Belgium's Got talent contest and is still wearing the same suit. Big chap, good voice, near opera style. Singing about mother, he is guaranteed to get some votes - no-one would want a song about mother to get nul points now would they. The Balkans will like this so there's a few votes guaranteed - and Italy and Malta too. Serbia won with something like this a few years ago. We should watch out for this as it is one of those that might just sneak up on the night if he sings really well.

Moldova

No, I don't want to listen to this again. This is one of those annoying tracks that is oh so serious but never really gets anywhere.

San Marino

Maybe is the title and maybe this will be the year when little San Marino gets into the main competition and scores a few points. I can't see this getting many and it is a bit forgettable but, like Andorra, it's time we heard more from the little places.

Portugal

This started encouragingly enough - something we can dance along to perhaps in Latin style - but then it all goes a bit wrong. In fact it just goes on and that girl looks so angry. I would not want to meet her on a dark night in a Lisbon ally. Expect to see plenty of legs on show on the night and she may be able to hold that last note and not frighten us too much.

The Netherlands

Something modern and interesting from Holland this year. They had a good entry last year and are really making quite an effort these days. This is folksy but with an insistent back beat and it grows with nice harmonies and it will appeal to Country fans too. I can imagine Mumford & Sons doing this and it would be #1. Now I think of it, we should have had them doing the UK entry.

I like this a lot. I would like to see it do well and feel it really should.

Montenegro

With so many entries being in English it was a pleasant change to have this in Montenegran or whatever they speak over there. This is all good classic Balkan fare. Violin, strong drum beat, good solid singer from a bloke of indeterminate age. Nice as far as it goes.

Hungary

This is the last that is available at the time of writing. A plaintive number to start. Then it starts and is much more commercial with a Bruno Mars feel. That's no bad thing and this could be quite successful. No-one bothers much about Hungary these days and they seem nicely placed between the Balkans, the East and the West so they may be a good political choice this year. Nasty subject matter. This is not cheery Eurovision pop, though. It's one of the tracks that could make the charts over here if released.

UK odds tumble but Iceland jump as second #Eurovision Semi approaches

Engelbert Humperdinck must have done something to restore UK's odds of winning to a more respectable 18-1 tonight after increasing to well over double that after the first Semi Final.

On the other hand, Iceland seem to have lost a massive load of support, going right out to 80-1 currently, less fancied than even than the host country's pretty uninspiring affair. Maybe the President's family have just realised they had some investments over there with that bank that many of our own local councils seemed to like a few years ago.

Russia continues to firm up a potential 2nd place with only Italy offering any other generally agreed threat to Sweden.

However, Thursday night could well bring all change when we discover whether Loreen can really reproduce her amazing track on the stage there. As the rehearsals have now been completed and the big money will have been placed on the basis of how they went, it would seem that all is going well for a Stockholm trip next year.

Group 1 Finalists decided for #BBCEurovision

Well that was fun. remarkably, I managed to predict all 10 of the acts from Group 1 that will make the Final on Saturday.

[Credit for the photos to Photographers Andres Putting, Elke Roels and Thomas Hanses (EBU) Date added 21/May 2012 Topics Eurovision Song Contest, Baku, 2012,]

In no particular order, they are:

Iceland

The violin was there and they cut the looooong break near the end too which worked well. If they can borrow a wind machine from somewhere they could do well.

Greece

Possibly the prettiest girl in the contest this year. Not the strongest song nut she performed well and, come on, the song has maniac rhyming with aphrodisiac so it has to stand a chance. Greece always seem to do well but don't expect too much this year.

Albania

This is that extraordinary track that has the most dramatic style of any for a long time. A serious entry. It will appeal to all those who might have been shaking their heads at the mini skirts and oh oh ohs. Massive outsider yesterday but now a real contender.

Romania

This girl, I mean track, is much fancied! I didn't think they'd manage to attract as many votes without the beach background, tiny bikinis and general appeal that the promo video had in spades. However, she did well and it's a catchy little number that people seem to like.

Cyprus

Great track but not that well performed this time. One of my early predictions. Not so sure now.

Denmark

Another early favourite of mine. Good singer but, again, not a brilliant performance compared to her previous efforts.

Hungary

I suspect this scraped through the semis and doubt that it will make the left hand side of the board on the night so nothing to worry about there.

Moldova

Everyone seems to like Moldova, or feel sorry for them. I mean they haven't a hope of affording to host the contest so it's lucky that this track isn't going to get a great deal further.

Ireland

JEdward were the last to be announced. after a lacklustre performance they may feel fortunate to have got through. This is one hell of a great song but they need to mime to a backing track to stand a chance of getting in the winning zone.

Russia

Yeah, and Russia got through.

Eurovision 2012: Best of the First Semi Final Contenders

Ok, folks, here we go. I've been through all the first semi final contenders and here are 8 that deserve a mention. The Eurovision.tv site has some very smart very widescreen videos this year which are reproduced here rather smaller. The other 10 really are not worth troubling with - some real disasters there you can check out in your own time.

The ones most likely to get through the first round, therefore, in alphabetical order:

Albania

This is an extraordinary song and an extraordinary video too. I have no idea what either are about but maybe that's Albanian 21st Century art. I have previewed this before and said that if the singer managed to reach all the notes this could be impressive. It was a bit of a screech before but in this take she's superb. It's not something I would rush out and buy nor will it appeal hugely to many Eurovision voters but it has got something about it that makes it stand out. It sounds like a typical 8th placer with respectful votes from quite a few but it's not a winner.



Cyprus

I have already promoted this big time. It's a very catchy number and if the girl performs well it should do very well. She does have a lot of competition in the pretty dark-haired girl singing pop songs category, though, so may well suffer from split votes there. despite what I said in the introduction, however, the 'official' video is terrible and totally does not do the song or the singer justice with some silly fairy tale about Snow White. So I've added the far better, albeit very scratchy, one here.



Denmark

This is great, a very US-influenced young girl leading a band with a well-written song that will definitely appeal to lots of the younger voters. She's right on tune and looks like a very young Britney or Christina mixed with someone else I can't quickly identify. Nice but that doesn't mean it's interesting enough to win.



Hungary

Theirs is a strong song - quite a protest too but, without the smart video, I doubt if it will get far. It may not even make it past the semis but I included it as there has been a lot of talk about it and the guy is very popular.



Iceland

This is a nice track, two people, which is often a good combination these days, and it seems to have come from the same stable as Denmark's 2010 brilliant number. The girl sings and plays a violin and the boy's bearable too, something which might have cost Azerbaijan a win last year as he just made us all laugh but luckily there weren't any other real contenders at the end of the day. There's a massive pause near the end which will really confuse the audience. That trick has been used many times before but seldom in Eurovision so it'll help make this a memorable track and may give Iceland their highest showing in this competition. I think it is a contender.



Ireland

Well, this has to be the best song but... can JEdward sing it live? The official video shows their badly synchronised efforts from the performance when their song was selected but, thank goodness, the soundtrack is the good studio version. Now, if they can pull off a good mime, stay fairly still and no one notices they'll win. In other words, they may well not win. Your guess is as good as mine.



Moldova

Great trumpet, rhythm, a jazzy, modern, fun feel to this. It's a bit wacky but I reckon it could have a lot of appeal. The guy singing is good and should come across well on tv and the girls are stunning. It's cool and unpretentious which I admire from this little state that has tried hard over the years. Remember the upside-down flower pots last year? At one point they were Top 3!





Romania

I have just written about this in my last post. A good number and nice video. Could do well.


Russia

If you haven't already heard, Putin has persuaded some old ladies from some distant village to perform. They look pretty sad, despite the grins, and he really is taking the p*** out of Europe with this entry. His nation has tried very hard to win in previous years with some very impressive entries but this is plain ridiculous and I won't even give it another airing here. If you want to watch five or six old women in dresses made of red carpet singing, unbelievably, in English about having a party then go and find it yourself. Putin's boys will ensure that it gets through the semis, though. If it doesn't then there'll be hell to pay.

Eurovision 2012: Iceland Commercial

Iceland have been nothing if not original in many of their efforts in the past to get us all to Reyjavik one year so it is a bit of a surprise to find them with a commercial number for 2012. Nice violin and a strong pop ballad from two reasonably good-looking singers in smart evening dress. The blonde female sings and plays the violin which gets dumped somewhere as as she and the guy do the touch hands bit and get into gear for the build up at the end. It's just all a bit late, though. That was 2010 or 2011. Still, for all I know it could be the theme that 2012 voters like too so it stands an outside chance as things stand at the moment. Here's the live version at the show where they won the local competition. Sorry about the red flashes which I guess come from the trial software used by whoever published this.