The usual contenders for the top spot: Russia return with a classy song; Sweden just fail miserably.

A nice track from Yulia but not one that will win her the competition. as ever, though, expect Russia to score well and she deserves a Top Ten position based on current released entries.

Sweden's entry this year is completely useless and of very little appeal. Indeed, I cannot now recall much of it at all. They spend almost all year at some huge Melodiefest and thousands of votes get cast but at the end it is like a committee has chosen the entry and allowed more interesting tracks and artists to fall by. So no more worries about Sweden stealing the show as we have had to contend with in previous years for some time now.

As in The UK, something has to change there. So much talent but when it comes to Eurovision they overthink the whole thing. Here we toss the enry card to a few new people we've never heard of and hope one might work.

Eurovision: still waiting for Armenia but here's the Top 10 anyway.

There are still over 50 days to go but already some clear groups of contenders for this year's Eurovision victory are forming. I was waiting for Armenia to release their song but, other than a singer and a title, there's nothing to help yet so I'll carry on with what we can learn from what has been issued now.

Young boys with carefully brushed eyebrows are the in-thing this year. Australia started it with their chap but his singing leaves a bit to be desired and the song is a bit tedious too. They'll be disappointed after Dani did so well last year but I expect they might still make the Top 10 as they're one of those countries people can vote for without worrying about the politics.

Another new kid on the Euro block is the Bulgarian lad who looks set to repeat last year's excellent result for the country. He's very young and no doubt many followers will find him cute and adorable. He can also sing very well and the song suits him and the competition well. In the Battle of The Baby Boys he's the likely winner.

The other boy is the lead singer from Homeland, a successful Irish band, much supported by Louis Walsh who usually knows what he's doing. A very good song and another extremely good singer should get Ireland back into the main show after their embarrassingly poor performance last year which failed even to get them in the Top 10 of their Semi Final group.

Then we have slightly older lads from Sweden, Portugal, Austria and Hungary. Last year, Austria were virtually written off by everyone except me before the competition but actually finished quite high in the table. I wonder whether the same could happen again. They're currently languishing at around 300-1 and, whilst I don't expect them to win, they have a chance of reaching the Top Ten if the singer performs well. It's a pretty good track although it's not going to inspire many.

Hungary have one of the few vaguely traditional tracks with a combination of the new and old that could appeal to quite a few in the juries at voting time.

Sweden have a very smart chap and four similarly smart lads singing and dancing around him. They win the Best Suit Award and the song could easily be a hit in our Top 40 but doesn't exactly come across as an all-out winner as many of their recent efforts have done. It's all competent stuff and is currently predicted to come 2nd so it would seem likely that Sweden will secure another Top 10 place this year.

Portugal is my own prediction for a challenger for the title this year. Much will depend on how the chap comes across on the day and I guess we won't really know until we get a preview at the Semi Finals. That will probably be when most people decide whether he's got a chance or not. I remember how France led the favourites list all the way through the lead up to the competition with a stunning video performance by their young male ballad singer one year - only to get virtually no votes at all on the night after a totally lacklustre live performance.

So it's still the older Italian for the Top Spot amongst the boys as things stand.

There seem to be no groups this year worthy of mention other than an early favourite from the Netherlands. OG3NE had the pzzazz of Little Mix - and the talent - but a poor song has left them way out of the running this year. Indeed, I am not even sure they'll reach the Final which is quite sad but that's the way things go if you get a lousy track.

Romania have a couple with a classic Euro-weird entry that will get votes just for the hell of it. A rapper and average girl singer do yodelling. At times she's quite good but there are other times when she's dreadful. It is crazy enough to win - Eurovision is like that, you know. I expect it'll scrape into the Top Ten and hope that's as far as it gets - even though it does make me smile.

So that leaves us with the girls. There are, of course, plenty of them and this year's main pretender to the Euro Throne is a girl from Belgium with a low voice that could almost be one of the boys we talked about before. Danger Zone is simply a good pop song and, once again, if it is performed well then it will certainly get votes from juries and public across the board. It reminds me of the Common Linnets track from the Netherlands a couple of years ago which quietly surprised everyone and consistently good scoring helped it to come 2nd. I see the same thing happening this year. It is, in fact, a potential winner should either Francesco let Italy down on the night or juries and voters simply not getting Occidentali Karma after all.

Another girl who could make the Top Ten is the young lady from FYR Macedonia. They haven't had much luck over the years and if their success was to rely upon the video then they could forget even qualifying this year. The video is not pleasant viewing. However, the song is good and deserves votes which a good live performance could attract.

A more watchable but nevertheless most confusing video accompanies the Azerbaijan entry. The punk-looking girl is one of the more modern-sounding girls this year, if not the only one now I think about that. There's a tone to her voice that people will either love or hate and we know that Azerbaijan always gets a bundle of votes so a Top Ten position is pretty likely for this unusual but quite effective track.

By my reckoning there's just one place left in the Top Ten if that lot all do well. The girl contenders are UK's Lucie Jones, Greece's Demy, France's Alma and Finland's Norma John. These are all really good singers and experienced performers so any one has the potential to knock out one of the people I've mentioned with better songs on the night. Their own songs, however, are just a bit lacking so if they do make it, it would be more by a combination of luck and their own personality than good songwriting. They should all do well but I think it will be another girl who makes that tenth spot.

There is also, of course, Russia. We've come to expect Russia to come 2nd or 3rd now as they do put a lot of effort into their challenges and, regardless of how good some have been, they have a legion of nations who seem inclined or obliged to give them good voting figures. This year the big nation is playing the Diversity card big time and Yulia Samoylova will be singing from her wheelchair. In the video she seems frail and her singing isn't as good as we've heard from previous entries. There is something very appealing, though, about this attractive young lady's performance and I am sure she'll pull in plenty of votes across the board.

Top 3

Italy | Belgium | Portugal

Top 6

Bulgaria | Sweden | Ireland

Top 10

Romania | FYR Macedonia | Azerbaijan | Russia

Outside chances

UK | France | Greece | Hungary | Finland | Australia

Eurovision 2016. The Top 10.

Tonight we'll find out whether Moscow has won the battle for Eurovision. Big Red has certainly thrown a huge amount of effort and one of its best stars into this thing. They really do mean business, and probably feel pretty hard done by after last year when they would have won had some juries not changed the numbers at the last moment.

Russia and Australia start the favourites bu quite a margin by I shall be brave and say that neither will win. I just have a feeling that the efforts and obvious attempts to appeal to everyone by Russia could backfire and make way for a simpler and more West-friendly nation. Australians may be super supporters of the whole Eurovision thing but, really, there should be a rule that says Australia can join in but we're not letting someone from a totally different part of the planet win. Dami Im is lovely, a super singer and demonstrates the power of make-up superbly but we already give South Korea a massive load of money with all the products we buy that they make without adding support for their recent emigrant to the pot. I am also a bit bothered by her odd sequencing of the lyrics. Paul Simon would definitely not approve, either, and I am a big fan of the guy.

So who will win?

This really is quite an odd year with no particularly good songs so I believe it will be a close-run affair. Here are my predictions, which, as always I have backed with cash at Betfair.

10 United Kingdom

Yes, I reckon the boys will make it this year. There's no-one vaguely like them and they have quite an appeal that our previous years' entries have not had. The singles selling well abroad too. But not that well.

9 Israel

If he gets things right, this guy could put on one of the better performances although I accept that Israel is not everyone's favourite nation, which is why I'm leaving him at 9. A worthy track, well-produced and the guy makes up each performance as he goes so it is very natural.

8 The Netherlands

Last year they nearly made it with their gentle strum-along song. This is pretty similar and is just a pleasant number with a nice guy singing with his band backing him. It doesn't do a great deal or make you want to go and buy it tomorrow but there is a certain charm about the track and the lead singer is a super performer who shouldn't put a step wrong. he;s been great i rehearsals all the way so far.

7 Cyprus

This is a bit of a long shot but this is a group that is unlike the rest of the crowd. Looking at how well The Disturbed have done recently then there may be some who vote for this band who rock along nicely with what is quite a catchy number. Their performances have been complicated and not that brilliant i some rehearsals but if they get it right there's a chance they'll be up there.

6 Australia

Dami Im will endear herself to lots and lots of fans I am sure and her dress and make-up and singing will be flawless. It's just a poor song in my view and, as I said before, Australia is a lovely country but it isn't in Europe. She will get enough votes to make the Top 10, though, easily.

5 France

This has been a huge hit across Europe and deservedly so as it is a good little pop song. It'll do well and many have predicted that it will win. I just have a feeling that it is almost too obvious with its ooo-ooo-ooo bits. The guy has also been missing quite a lot of notes in practice and relying on backing singers. he may do better than this but not a great deal worse.

4 Russia

After all their effort they will have to come close to the top. Sergei is a great singer, hardly ever puts a note wrong and also has a very difficult set of moves to do, with a tremendously impressive backscreen to work with as well. It's just, well, all a bit much. Russia will, though, get support and bags of votes from all their friends - and there are plenty, but not quite as many as before.

3 Italy

I think this is the best song of the evening and the singer is superb in terms of reaching the right notes and her delivery generally. She lacks a bit of personality which is a shame and she will need to smile and appeal a bit more than she has done so far to make this position but I feel there is much love for Italy and hope they do reach this position, or maybe even take the crown.

2 Ukraine

Controversial, this one. I may be completely wrong. The singer has written this herself and it breaks almost all the normal Eurovision 'How To Win' Book rules but that may even be in its favour. I don't understand all the lyrics or the history but suffice it to say she is unlikely to get any votes from Russia. If the singer manages to reach all the notes she has done in most rehearsals then this could be amazing. if she wails instead then I'll be very wrong and regret asking you to listen to it. Because it is so political, I fear that many voters will shy away from giving Ukraine the douze points and prevent her wining but I do expect to see her in the Top Ten.

1 Sweden

I am going for the double for Sweden. The song is not brilliant and the singer a bit bland but he is about the only modern thing on the menu apart from Justin Timerberlake and the Lithuanian guy. Hmm, maybe I should have backed the Lithuanian guy. No, Sweden are the only Scandinavian nation left in this thing this year which is remarkable but also likely to produce quite a few heavy points from their neighbours of whom there are plenty who have no-one else to vote for.

My personal favourites this year have been Austria and Croatia but, despite them both being well-produced numbers, the performers have been a little unreliable in rehearsals and the tracks are probably a bit old-fashioned for a 2016 contest.

Apart from Lithuanian's young fellow, the other two to look out for, each of whom could make the Top if they get things right and some others don't, are Malta's Ira and Armenia's Iveta. Both excellent singers with decent numbers who ought to be in the Top 10, if not the Top 5. One of them may, indeed, replace Italy and come fairly high but there may be some splitting of votes for dark-haired ballad singers this year and I shalls tick with Italy winning that particular battle.

Sweden get more than the grammar right with their next potential winner.

Sweden put a huge national effort into picking their Eurovision entry and it seems to pay off. This year they are favourites again with this excellent track from a nice lad called Frans. It is easy to listen to and very cleverly doesn't throw every trick in the book at us but merely suggests we might sing along in the breaks.

This is not guaranteed to be the winner but it will be up there in the Top 5 for sure.

I really wish we could have a similar 'Melody Festival' here. We did get to choose, admittedly, after years of just being told by a small committee at the BBC, but we had just one week of limited exposure and one short programme with a vote amongst those watching a secondary TV channel. Songs now get a lot of publicity around Europe and people get to hear many on the radio as well as on the stage so the requirement for instant hit is not as necessary as it once was. The Swedish system may involve a little too broad an audience and favours the middle of the road rather than something a bit special.

Their guy is also an established performer. We choose a couple of nervous lads who didn't make The Voice finals.

Hungary, The Netherlands and Sweden join the Top 10 contenders

Latvia

A jolly song about a Cake to bake. OK. Cool and cheerful song that will have some panel members tapping their feet and maybe voting enough to get them in the Top 10 this year.

Estonia

Tanja has a go at Loreen's style with the solid electro beat and a convenient male dancer. She shows a lot more flesh than her Swedish predecessor and moves around a bit quicker. It's a decent track but I don't see it being that popular or unpopular.

Sweden

So we know they'll be making a good effort. Almost all their entries stand as potential chart acts in their own right. This is no exception. More serious ballad, building as ballads usually do in Eurovision to a drum-assisted crescendo but not too annoyingly so. The echo is quite important but I am not sure she'll get that on the night. Neverthess this will appeal across the board and see Sweden into the Top 10, and, I reckon, quite high there too.

Iceland

A bit crazy - all good stuff about not having prejudice, a bit too politically correct for me and too obviously put together for Eurovision. Not something I want to play again and doubt whether many others will but it's a safe vote for countries so expect it to get enough points to keep away from the bottom.

Albania

They always seem to make the main competition and have some pretty individual entries that you either love or hate. This one has the ballad and bloke with a guitar doing rock stuff. The girl looks angry most of the time and it's an Evanescence type of track. Strong but it lacks any hook or, to be honest, much appeal - that singer isn't particularly watchable.

Azerbaijan

They'd love to win again and do keep making strong efforts. Here they come again this year with a potential #2. Pretty girl with gentle song that sounds like it ought to tell a story.




Nice enough but at digging out burning bullets from his chest I began to wonder what it was all bout. Ah, of course, it's all about trying to win this thing and that's not a bad effort at all.

Ukraine

Well, you have to worry with the title Tick Tock. The country will be getting some sympathy votes I suspect this year. I hope the singer doesn't come from Crimea or they'll be all kinds of problems. Assuming she isn't and that Ukraine hasn't been wiped off the map in its entirety then this is a jolly number but a bit desperate and tries a bit too hard. As always the girl is lovely and we'll be guaranteed some pleasant viewing. Sure, left hand side of the board but not a great deal more this year.

Belgium

It really is time Belgium did better. here we have someone who looks like he won a Belgium's Got talent contest and is still wearing the same suit. Big chap, good voice, near opera style. Singing about mother, he is guaranteed to get some votes - no-one would want a song about mother to get nul points now would they. The Balkans will like this so there's a few votes guaranteed - and Italy and Malta too. Serbia won with something like this a few years ago. We should watch out for this as it is one of those that might just sneak up on the night if he sings really well.

Moldova

No, I don't want to listen to this again. This is one of those annoying tracks that is oh so serious but never really gets anywhere.

San Marino

Maybe is the title and maybe this will be the year when little San Marino gets into the main competition and scores a few points. I can't see this getting many and it is a bit forgettable but, like Andorra, it's time we heard more from the little places.

Portugal

This started encouragingly enough - something we can dance along to perhaps in Latin style - but then it all goes a bit wrong. In fact it just goes on and that girl looks so angry. I would not want to meet her on a dark night in a Lisbon ally. Expect to see plenty of legs on show on the night and she may be able to hold that last note and not frighten us too much.

The Netherlands

Something modern and interesting from Holland this year. They had a good entry last year and are really making quite an effort these days. This is folksy but with an insistent back beat and it grows with nice harmonies and it will appeal to Country fans too. I can imagine Mumford & Sons doing this and it would be #1. Now I think of it, we should have had them doing the UK entry.

I like this a lot. I would like to see it do well and feel it really should.

Montenegro

With so many entries being in English it was a pleasant change to have this in Montenegran or whatever they speak over there. This is all good classic Balkan fare. Violin, strong drum beat, good solid singer from a bloke of indeterminate age. Nice as far as it goes.

Hungary

This is the last that is available at the time of writing. A plaintive number to start. Then it starts and is much more commercial with a Bruno Mars feel. That's no bad thing and this could be quite successful. No-one bothers much about Hungary these days and they seem nicely placed between the Balkans, the East and the West so they may be a good political choice this year. Nasty subject matter. This is not cheery Eurovision pop, though. It's one of the tracks that could make the charts over here if released.

Eurovision 2012. And the winner is...

Sweden swept to an easy victory this year. I have gone on enough already about how good that song is so no need to say much more here. It had been my clear favourite from the first day the tracks were released but so had France's entry last year and that did terribly. You can never tell with Eurovision and that's part of its appeal, I suppose.

I have refused to write about Russia's ridiculous entry and am so relieved that it didn't make it. They were 113 points behind, where they battled with Serbia who took the top ballad spot that we Brits had hoped might go to Engelbert for the UK.

The host, Azerbaijan, and Albania exchanged 4th and 5th places most of the night. I had not expected Azerbaijan to make the Top 10 but they pulled reasonable votes in from almost everyone, presumably to ensure their journalists get out safely tomorrow. Albania was one of my long shots. Most people thought I was mad so that was quite satisfying.

6th place could have been any of Estonia, Turkey, Germany, Italy or Spain with just 23 points separating Estonia in 6th and Spain in 10th. Estonia's guy performed his ballad really well - my other long shot - and this clearly has been a night of the big songs. Italy I had down as a Top 10 but the other three surprised me.

At one point, Cyprus were in 3rd place but my other three predictions failed miserably. In the case of Denmark, inexplicably too. Their performance was good and almost exactly like the promotional video version - not a winner but no way did it deserve to come 23rd! That's fourth from the bottom. Apart from Sweden, tracks you might expect to hear in the charts across Europe were clearly not flavour of the night in Baku, with Iceland and Norway also suffering, Norway coming a most unexpected bottom of the pile.

I think everyone had expected UK's Engelbert to put on a marvellous performance and wow all his fans across Europe and, even if he didn't win, no-one predicted that he'd be only saved by Norway from coming last. The thing was, though, he wasn't very good. There was none of the style or the confidence he'd exhibited before and several key notes were just off. He did seem, I'm sorry to say, an old chap who had known better days. He was joined in the lower section by Jedward who surely won't be getting any more invitations to represent Ireland. They did score a few more points to manage 19th place but just couldn't perform live an otherwise excellent track. At one point the backing singers were more in evidence than they were, and more in tune. I even thought that might have been a good move by someone as the backing singers were good. Having a load of water gush down on them at the end didn't make any sense at all and that, together with silly outfits and stupid dancing, totally spoilt the well-written song.

So that's that, and my excuses and apologies for only getting 6/10 this year. The right song did win, though, as I'd said, thank goodness.

UK odds tumble but Iceland jump as second #Eurovision Semi approaches

Engelbert Humperdinck must have done something to restore UK's odds of winning to a more respectable 18-1 tonight after increasing to well over double that after the first Semi Final.

On the other hand, Iceland seem to have lost a massive load of support, going right out to 80-1 currently, less fancied than even than the host country's pretty uninspiring affair. Maybe the President's family have just realised they had some investments over there with that bank that many of our own local councils seemed to like a few years ago.

Russia continues to firm up a potential 2nd place with only Italy offering any other generally agreed threat to Sweden.

However, Thursday night could well bring all change when we discover whether Loreen can really reproduce her amazing track on the stage there. As the rehearsals have now been completed and the big money will have been placed on the basis of how they went, it would seem that all is going well for a Stockholm trip next year.

Eurovision 2012: Best of the Second Semi Final Contestants

Here are the better entries for the Second Semi Final, again in A -Z order. To be honest, only Malta really stands much chance of making that much of an impression but they're here anyway and, if you really really want to see what the other nine have to offer before they're forgotten completely then they're all available in lovely widescreen on Eurovision.tv. Edit a few days later: listening to Sweden again, that is one good performance and a definite contender to win.


Bosnia & Herzegovina

Always in the running, this is a serious but good track and well sung. It has a nice flute section but isn't really a winning entry - again.



Estonia

Another serious entry - there are a lot this year - by a talented singer. It's a classic Balkan-sounding number which will help get support from a good tranche of nations' voters. Good song. Stands an outside chance. Top 10 maybe.



Malta

This country has tried so hard in the past but never made it to the top. This year they have an Enrique Iglesias sound-a-like with a well-written song and plenty of hooks with its Hey Hey Hey and Yeah Yeah Yeah which I'm sure will go down well. Really quite catchy and a top 10 contender if not that much higher.




Netherlands

A quirky number, quite different from the rest which might get some attention. A girl, hopefully without the feathers that she wears in the video and slightly odd costume, playing a guitar, folky and simple. You'll smile if nothing else and think that it was quite nice. Reminds me a bit of the winning norway entry a while ago. It's not as good as that, though, and not a real winning contender but deserves a mention here.






Norway

Tooji is in the same vein as Malta'a entry this year but not as impressive so the votes will be split to Norway's disadvantage and this won't be bringing them another win. It's energetic, though, and a better looking bloke than Malta. It'll make the left side of the voting board but not a great deal more.



Serbia

Here's another scenic number from the country that is trying to regain a number 1 slot from a few years' ago and which usually gets high scores from all but one or two of its neighbours. It has lots of flavours and my son says it's pretty much a Coldplay number rehashed which I suppose isn't necessarily goingto to do any harm. Well-presented and stands a chance of breaking into the Top 10 too.



Slovenia

Conspicous by their absence, due to some pretty dull entries recently, this passionate and anthemic number might change that this year for them. I'm not that sure what to make of it but, if it's really well sung on the night and it builds well on the stage I can see it being popular.



Sweden

Always in with a chance with great songwriters and production people around, this heavy trance number will meet with young voters' approval. It needs atmosphere to work best and quite how it can be presented at its best on a stage remains to be seen. It's good, though, and could be a Top 5 entry if it goes right for the girl. Edit a few days later: I am now predicting this as a possible winner, after listening again. It is very very good indeed. 





Ukraine

I always feel that I have to mention Ukraine as they always seem to do well. Sometimes they definitely deserve it, other times they don't but they're the one old Soviet State that can be relied on the present us with a good-looking, dark haired girl with an almost perfect figure and lots of appeal for the guys out there. This one is another intense dance affair in true Eurovision style but it does lose its way half-way through and you start wondering just who is actually singing - the blonde or the black girls? I guess we'll find out on the night. Not a winner but they'll be competing and stealing votes from many of the other girls no doubt.



Next post will sweep up the remaining entries that are automatically through to the final - the countries that pay for it, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK, plus the Azerbaijan effort to win twice in a row.