It looks like everything depends now on who does or doesn't hit the right notes tonight. JEdward have really got a massive following now in parts of Europe that XFactor didn't reach and their novelty could well make them the one act that can beat the French to win. I really do hope not and doubt whether we can find any more money to lend Ireland to stage the 2012 show.
If they make a balls-up of their dancing and their autotune fails to correct their inability to sing then they may still win 'cos that'll make people laugh but, if voters are in serious mood then France have it in the bag unless the nice young tenor struggles too, which isn't likely but you do have to be willing to be grabbed by his operatic soaring notes and those that don't because Grandad's snoring or the cat's wailing may look elsewhere to cast their precious douze points.
Where else might they go? Normally, I'd say Azerbaijan, - well I'd try to say Azerbaijan and probably get it wrong - but just look at that guy and the way he looks at the girl. Can anyone really vote for that? I suppose if they don't look, or just watch her, then this nice number is pretty much going to appeal in a moderate way to everyone. If getting some decent points from everyone will find a winner then go for little Azerbaijan who do have oil and would be happy to get the business and tourists who'll have no idea where the plane will land.
Last year's delightful winner, Germany's Lena is not only easier to pronounce but also has a cool track and you can be sure she'll do it well. It's just not a Eurovision song so it would need a lot of normal people voting and I can't see enough normal people doing that.
UK and Blue should do well and may pick up good vote numbers from almost everyone so we won't be lounging around at the bottom this year, at least, and stand a chance of winning if, as I said, JEdward are just irritating and the Frenchman burps half-way through.
The only other acts with a chance in my book are Hungary and Finland. I would have added Sweden and Austria but neither lived up to expectations in the rehearsals - good songs and normally the sort of people you'd put money on to be up there but they came across much weaker than their original promotional videos. It's all about wind machines and it doesn't look like they've got any this year.
Hungary is the one to watch and, at 40-1, there's a nice profit to be made. It's got the traditional look and feel of a Eurovision and I can see it now on the compilation CD of winners Vol 45. She is just a little unnerving to watch, though, and anything less than a perfect performance will leave her scraping the bottom of the top ten rather than anything special.
Finland could do what Norway did a couple of years ago but the young chap who's performing the simple number is just a bit too smug-looking for my taste. He is different, though, and people do like the Green Thing and young guys on their own with a guitar and a gentle, unusual song do well. The bookies have him around 27-1 which isn't far off Blue's odds which is intriguing and makes his progress as they start adding up the votes worth watching.
Estonia and Denmark are fancied too at about the same level as UK, Germany, Sweden and Finland which, apart from saying that it's really just between JEdward and the French guy, shows that no-one really has much of a clue this year. I don't get either of them but someone might.
The only real surprise I can think of would be Georgia. If the JEward rubbish and Bosnia & Herzegovina trousers don't appeal and voters like the energetic and attractive rock chick then it really could be a fun evening as everyone wonders why they didn't see them coming. But they probably don't need to worry. Something's bound to go wrong and ruddy JEward will win. And I'll make a massive 10p.