So here we are - Final night at last. It seems a long, long time since we first heard Dizzy and some of the other first releases. Where will be going this time next year, I wonder?
The bookies never get everything completely right but the do tend to be right about the top two or three. This year there is a massive divide between three leading competitors, then another between four 'possibles' and the rest are in the far distance with odds of 500-1 or more.
The winner is likely to be one of Croatia, Israel or Switzerland, they say. I have written before that I would find an Israel win at this time extraordinary. Not that the song and performer aren't good - they're fine, it's just the politics really don't favour Israel as far as I can see. But maybe the politics of the voting public is diametrically opposed to what we see on the streets of many capitals around the world? If it is, then that is reassuring but I have my doubts. something, however, spooked the bookies and I can only assume either an inordinately large vote or a huge bet came their way after the 2nd semi Final.
Croatia is the catchy, crowd-pleasing one that, bar Israel, I had expected to top the public vote. It has a cheery vibe and lifts people up with its anthemic like whoa-oh bits.
Switzerland have the complex, clever and beautifully constructed and (hopefully) performed entry, for a long time the favourite but less supported now, possibly with a comparison of voting support with Israel being seen which effectively nullified the Swiss case.
If it isn't one of these then it will be because one of the next entries performed magically on the stage and also impressed the Jury votes in rehearsals.
The contenders are France, Italy, Ireland and Ukraine and it would be difficult to have a more diverse four. France have the one big belter ballad this year, (forget Latvia). If voters want a ballad to win they'll vote for France and those numbers may be enough with most of the others split between similar acts. My view is that this is simply not a good enough ballad, nor is the singer appealing enough, nor his performance sufficiently magical. It's all a bit stodgy and you just want a bit of Italian passion, not French sweat and spray.
Italy have the pretty girl dancer and singer. If you want a pretty girl dancer to win then this is the best one. There are a lot, though, so Miss Mango will have to be amazingly fabulous and all of Italy's nationals abroad will have to vote.
Both Italy and France will be high in the Jury vote so will start at or near the top which will look good for them but not last, I fear.
Ireland have an extraordinary act. If you want an extraordinary act to win then vote for Ireland. Bambie Thug is a name that says it all really. A bony, occasionally sweet but mostly rather frightening girl seems to have lost her mind and just screams at us most of the time. It's clever, shocking and not Eurotrash but something so way-out as to be almost in. It is the one very, very unpredictable entry which could just bomb and never be played again or get millions of votes and win.
Ukraine have the anthem-like passionate thing with a rap break. If you want a passionate song with a rap break then this is for you. I have always seen this as a potential winner. It is a beautiful track, apart from the rap break, and the staging looks fabulous and, so far, the performance has been super with a very strong voice from the lead girl. It's good and deserves to win but it will be only from a massive boost on the night in their votes. It is possible, though, especially if there are splits in support and 12 points are split between other leaders but Ukraine gets plenty of 8s and 10s.
So who else is there, lurking amongst the 500-1 shots?
Only Austria and Norway, I think. The rest really do not stand a chance so it's not worth writing about them.
Austria have a hit, for sure, but the votes are just not going to be enough as rave-dance-party-goers do not necessarily watch Eurovision. It's a great number nevertheless and if Kaleen can perform at the top of her game they may make top ten but not a great deal more.
Norway is the one dark horse I can imagine coming out of nowhere to prove all the predictions wrong.
The UK song isn't bad but I really do not want to watch the performance which is simply ugly. Sweden have clearly given up with their twin X Factor losers being highly forgettable. Armenia's girl is lovely and I wish her well but she has no hope in hell of winning. Greece will get lots of votes and support and should just about make the Top 15, maybe even Top 10 if it's a good day for them. Nothing more though.
Looks like Netherlands are out. Good.
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