Tonight the first group of nations will be performing and this will be the first that the public see of their 'real' chances as they take to the live stage instead of just being in a much-rehearsed video, auto-tuned recording or, at the other extreme. some poorly-produced party acts at various venues beforehand.
We can confidently expect Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Ireland to qualify and, regrettably, idiots will vote for the awful Finland's Windows 95 man too. No-one else has a hope in hell of winning so it's pretty pointless to worry too much about who else gets through.
Serbia was the one nation in the rest that I originally thought had a good song but its chances have been at 1000-1 for a long time now so clearly the singer hasn't done very well other than in the video.
Cyprus have a pretty girl and excellent dancer who one would expect to get through but it seems her song is very much like another track released before so no-one is giving her a great deal of love. Just because she can sing and dance well, though, I'd quite like to see Cyprus qualify, at least.
Australia's performers and stage crew have come a long way so it's a shame to send them back to the other side of the world where it's autumn and getting chilly but they really have a rubbish entry that does not deserve to be heard again.
Slovenia have a smart singer, Raiven, who is said to be a witch but she'll need no special spells to get through, just a few more votes than the handful that most of her other remnant competitors will receive.
Moldova have made virtually ever Final they've gone for and always seem to do far better with the public than anyone ever expects. So, despite their 1000-1 odds, my guess is that they'll make it though once more.
Iceland have been popular at Eurovision ever since they didn't win in COVID times and, of course, due to the excellent film. Goodness knows what happened this year, however, with a dreadful woman singing notes that I don't recognise in a very messy performance.
Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Poland and Portugal just leave me with nothing to say. They're just not tracks I would ever want to play again. Not as bad as Iceland or Australia but just boring or of no consequence whatsoever. Poland have a lot of voters so maybe that will get them through. Having Azerbaijan and Armenia in the same show could be troublesome so someone may fiddle the figures to keep Azerbaijan out as Armenia are pretty sure to qualify on Thursday. On the other hand, Baku bosses have pots of money to help their nation get its name on the screen so it really is anyone's guess. Whatever the case it won't matter much.
So, if I have to pick 10 to qualify it will be:
Croatia | Ukraine | Lithuania | Finland | Ireland | Cyprus | Moldova | Slovenia | Serbia | Poland
Update:
OK 8/10 isn't too bad!
Through to Saturday's Final are:
Croatia | Ukraine | Lithuania | Finland | Ireland | Cyprus | Slovenia | Serbia | Portugal | Luxembourg
Particularly strong performances by Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia and Portugal, the last one earning their place although still definitely not a winner. Ireland were pretty good but could have been presented better by the camera people and I am not so sure the dress stripping worked. However, you did get the genuine sense that they could actually win, everyone else fading slightly in comparison for one reason or another. Ukraine were divine and if they can reproduce that quality then they must be contenders. Croatia remain favourites, though, with a very professional performance and one really does have to hope that they steal many of the slightly Eurostuff votes from the awful Finland and Netherlands to keep them out of the running whilst not getting too many.
The Jury votes will have gone mainly to Portugal, Serbia and Ukraine.
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