Eurovision 2012. And the winner is...

Sweden swept to an easy victory this year. I have gone on enough already about how good that song is so no need to say much more here. It had been my clear favourite from the first day the tracks were released but so had France's entry last year and that did terribly. You can never tell with Eurovision and that's part of its appeal, I suppose.

I have refused to write about Russia's ridiculous entry and am so relieved that it didn't make it. They were 113 points behind, where they battled with Serbia who took the top ballad spot that we Brits had hoped might go to Engelbert for the UK.

The host, Azerbaijan, and Albania exchanged 4th and 5th places most of the night. I had not expected Azerbaijan to make the Top 10 but they pulled reasonable votes in from almost everyone, presumably to ensure their journalists get out safely tomorrow. Albania was one of my long shots. Most people thought I was mad so that was quite satisfying.

6th place could have been any of Estonia, Turkey, Germany, Italy or Spain with just 23 points separating Estonia in 6th and Spain in 10th. Estonia's guy performed his ballad really well - my other long shot - and this clearly has been a night of the big songs. Italy I had down as a Top 10 but the other three surprised me.

At one point, Cyprus were in 3rd place but my other three predictions failed miserably. In the case of Denmark, inexplicably too. Their performance was good and almost exactly like the promotional video version - not a winner but no way did it deserve to come 23rd! That's fourth from the bottom. Apart from Sweden, tracks you might expect to hear in the charts across Europe were clearly not flavour of the night in Baku, with Iceland and Norway also suffering, Norway coming a most unexpected bottom of the pile.

I think everyone had expected UK's Engelbert to put on a marvellous performance and wow all his fans across Europe and, even if he didn't win, no-one predicted that he'd be only saved by Norway from coming last. The thing was, though, he wasn't very good. There was none of the style or the confidence he'd exhibited before and several key notes were just off. He did seem, I'm sorry to say, an old chap who had known better days. He was joined in the lower section by Jedward who surely won't be getting any more invitations to represent Ireland. They did score a few more points to manage 19th place but just couldn't perform live an otherwise excellent track. At one point the backing singers were more in evidence than they were, and more in tune. I even thought that might have been a good move by someone as the backing singers were good. Having a load of water gush down on them at the end didn't make any sense at all and that, together with silly outfits and stupid dancing, totally spoilt the well-written song.

So that's that, and my excuses and apologies for only getting 6/10 this year. The right song did win, though, as I'd said, thank goodness.

Early Predictions for #Eurovision 2012

Last night's 2nd Group Semi Final was a pretty dire event and I would imagine that the voting figures were probably 90% Sweden and 10% across the rest which meant that dreadful noises from places like Lithuania managed to get through to the final by getting 4 votes compared to 2 or 3 for the others.

Sweden's Loreen did perform Euphoria well and that sealed her place at the top of almost everybody's table of likely winners on Saturday. The two acts who appeared to go down well with the crowd in Baku were Estonia and Norway. Despite a lacklustre performance of an entry I've favoured for a long time and an awful re-working of the ending to feature some tuneless girl, Malta still got through.

So, it's 'early prediction' time. As we still haven't seen how the Big Five will actually perform live I do still have some doubts about the make-up of the Top Ten so, as always, these come with a health warning and will almost certainly be subject to change as the Final unfolds and we see just what the likes of Italy and France actually deliver on the night.

Winner
Sweden

Top 10 (with a chance of winning)
UK
Italy
Ireland

Top 10 (the others)
Russia
Denmark
Norway
Romania
Serbia
Cyprus

Long shots (that might just make the Top 10)
Estonia
Albania
Iceland

Long shots (that could cause big surprises)
France
Malta

I can't pretend that logic plays much part in Eurovision but, for what it's worth, this is some of the justification I'd offer for these suggestions. there are only a few good ballads this year and Engelbert is the best of the batch. Serbia, the other big ballad, is also about the only decent Yugoslavia group entry this time and will benefit from their support and some other nations around there.

Ireland have the best song, likely to be a huge hit across Europe anyway, but Jedward... they've been pathetic in the live performances I've seen so far and lots of fussy voters in other countries like Finland and Slovenia don't like dodgy notes and random dancing.

As Sweden will sweep the floor with the high scores from Skandinavian countries, Denmark, Norway and Iceland will be hard pressed to get the same high numbers rolling in. They have great entries but that'll hurt their chances. Iceland have a really well-written track and fabulous violin and press all the right buttons but for some reason I can't figure their odds at the bookmakers have gone out to nearly 100-1 which is why they're a long shot now.

The eastern bloc and Russian states vote for each other and usually like what each other does and, of course, Russia still tells most of them what to do so, however bad their entries are - and they are all, without exception, pretty bad this year - some will amass a good number of points on the night regardless of what they sing or how short the girls' dresses are. That has to be good news for Romania and, of course, Russia itself. It could also help Estonia quite considerably as that's a clever song and can appeal to both the eastern bloc and Skandinavian camps. Estonia is my first prediction for the Big Surprise. They're currently 200-1 so not many people have seen that yet. Or they have and think I'm talking rubbish.

The second Big Surprise could be Albania. For similar reasons but also this is a truly extraordinary song and performance. If it goes well then she'll be up there. If it doesn't then never mind. Over 300-1 says it all really.

France has one very catchy whistle thing in a decent track. Much depends when they perform but if it is at a position where it sticks in voters' minds when they're dialling the numbers then it will do well. Malta is the other very long shot. It is a very catchy song and, delivered well, it will steal Norway's votes, being similar in some ways. People seem to like Malta too and they'll pick up middle ranging votes from across the board.

Cyprus has possibly the most 'Europop' entry and it is remarkably memorable. Even if you don't like it you'll be singing it afterwards. for a while. Their entry is very similar to Greece but this year my guess is that they'll get the more votes of the two and also pull in a load from the Mediterranean bloc. Italy have a strong number, great female singer with lots of personality and a jazzy theme that is quite different to any of the others. It'll be well supported, will make the Top 10 for sure and might just steal the crown if she gets enough votes from the eastern and Mediterranean blocs.

And then there's Engelbert. He is very popular across Europe and will be a confident and assured performer. at his age, he's got nothing to prove and nothing to lose. He could well do it, appealing across the blocs and, if it weren't for Loreen, I'd say this would be UK's year. It might still be.

And remember the Aliyev family control everything. Oh, did I mention Azerbaijan's chances...?

UK odds tumble but Iceland jump as second #Eurovision Semi approaches

Engelbert Humperdinck must have done something to restore UK's odds of winning to a more respectable 18-1 tonight after increasing to well over double that after the first Semi Final.

On the other hand, Iceland seem to have lost a massive load of support, going right out to 80-1 currently, less fancied than even than the host country's pretty uninspiring affair. Maybe the President's family have just realised they had some investments over there with that bank that many of our own local councils seemed to like a few years ago.

Russia continues to firm up a potential 2nd place with only Italy offering any other generally agreed threat to Sweden.

However, Thursday night could well bring all change when we discover whether Loreen can really reproduce her amazing track on the stage there. As the rehearsals have now been completed and the big money will have been placed on the basis of how they went, it would seem that all is going well for a Stockholm trip next year.

Odds still fluctuating - but Sweden remain firm favourites for now

Sweden stay clear favourites after the first Semi Final of Eurovision. The big changes tonight have been Cyprus, Denmark and Ireland (and Albania - but still 110-1) with much shortened odds, whilst UK seem to be becoming less popular still, now at 40-1.

Group 1 Finalists decided for #BBCEurovision

Well that was fun. remarkably, I managed to predict all 10 of the acts from Group 1 that will make the Final on Saturday.

[Credit for the photos to Photographers Andres Putting, Elke Roels and Thomas Hanses (EBU) Date added 21/May 2012 Topics Eurovision Song Contest, Baku, 2012,]

In no particular order, they are:

Iceland

The violin was there and they cut the looooong break near the end too which worked well. If they can borrow a wind machine from somewhere they could do well.

Greece

Possibly the prettiest girl in the contest this year. Not the strongest song nut she performed well and, come on, the song has maniac rhyming with aphrodisiac so it has to stand a chance. Greece always seem to do well but don't expect too much this year.

Albania

This is that extraordinary track that has the most dramatic style of any for a long time. A serious entry. It will appeal to all those who might have been shaking their heads at the mini skirts and oh oh ohs. Massive outsider yesterday but now a real contender.

Romania

This girl, I mean track, is much fancied! I didn't think they'd manage to attract as many votes without the beach background, tiny bikinis and general appeal that the promo video had in spades. However, she did well and it's a catchy little number that people seem to like.

Cyprus

Great track but not that well performed this time. One of my early predictions. Not so sure now.

Denmark

Another early favourite of mine. Good singer but, again, not a brilliant performance compared to her previous efforts.

Hungary

I suspect this scraped through the semis and doubt that it will make the left hand side of the board on the night so nothing to worry about there.

Moldova

Everyone seems to like Moldova, or feel sorry for them. I mean they haven't a hope of affording to host the contest so it's lucky that this track isn't going to get a great deal further.

Ireland

JEdward were the last to be announced. after a lacklustre performance they may feel fortunate to have got through. This is one hell of a great song but they need to mime to a backing track to stand a chance of getting in the winning zone.

Russia

Yeah, and Russia got through.

UK cling to predicted Top 10 position in Eurovision

Quite marked changes in some countries' odds this evening.

Here is the full list of the current Top 20:

Sweden      2.88

Italy      9.4

Russia     10.5

Serbia     18

Romania    19

Iceland    24

UK        36

Spain      27

Denmark    30

Germany    32

Norway     38

Ireland    38

Cyprus     42

Greece     42

Azerbaijan 65

Ukraine    65

Turkey     90

Estonia 140

Netherland170

France 200

Latvia have reduced massively from over 500-1 to 170-1, Malta also down from 350 to 200-1. I guess they must have had good rehearsals at the Semis. We'll see tomorrow.

Wake up. TheVoiceUK has finished. You knew the results anyway.

Next year I suggest that The Voice UK might be better just as one of the rounds in X Factor UK as it really isn't turning into that brilliant a series. There are a few potential star acts remaining, though, so I'll do my best to stay awake long enough to keep you informed of developments.

This week it was the turn of Danny and Jessie to slice their teams in half. Difficult for Danny as he had four good acts. Difficult for Jessie as she only had one.

Danny's team

Max

I think the title's Black House With A Cherry Tree. At least that was the main line of what seemed more like a traditional folk song turned into a 21st century track. Nicely done by Max, though, if not inspirational. This fellow is very comfortable on stage and, whilst not an amazing voice or a big new star in the making, he's a likeable chap and I'd like to see him in the final 8.

Bo

This is one of the best that the programme has found. Will praises her in style for her presentation of Love The Way You Lie which made Rihanna's seem positively boring. Rihanna needn't worry too much, though, as I can't see Bo doing the desk romp on Jonathan Ross any time soon. She's is, however, really good and current. You can imagine her selling her records now and definitely should be in the last 8 and, indeed, in the final 4.

Alex

Mr Laid Back. Good singer and, although he gets bundles of criticism for being chilled out and not prancing around, he did what he's good at and, strangely, his style is more likely to get him album sales at this time than many of the others. For some reason, though, other judges seem to think he's not making an effort.

David

A sort of older version of Matt Cardle. Very good singer and performer, doing Maroon V this week and doing it really professionally. In anyone else's team he'd be a natural for the semi-final. As it is he'll be famous for showing the world Holly's knickers.

Jessie's team

Cassius

Yet another tired version of Turning Tables that wouldn't have got him past the first auditions on X Factor UK Very weak and instantly forgettable. In fact all I can recall now is the image of him being clutched by Holly and looking tiny, speaking to her at a height that any normal tv producer would have said was just plain wrong.

Vince

Some reggae take on My love Is Your Love or something like that. UB40 have been there, done that. I know it's supposed to be about the voice but, really, no sleeve T shirt and arm pits on show do nothing for me at all. All just too plain ugly. I don't know how he survive the last round.

Becky

Seven Nation Army. Now here is talent. This girl will go far. She's today, natural, unbridled as well as being a bit stupid, just right for the teen market. You give her a track and she delivers it in a unique way, makes a few mistakes as she prances around and has yet to learn some microphone technique but she could definitely make someone some money. Simon Cowell should put a bid in for her before Jesse takes her down in case she takes her market away.

Toni

This is the girl with no hair. She is so shiny. A good singer but all a bit much, nothing that really grabs you and says that she is something special.

The results show, despite being live, was broadcast after most of us had a pretty good idea of some of the names going through, thanks to some poorly managed publicity by the Jesse team and Will's twitter account!

Danny gets Bo from the public vote and chooses Max - good choices but images of a very sullen Alex won't have done his career much good.

Jesse gets given Vince. How the hell did he come first in the public vote? Weird. She chooses Becky to join him in the semi-final. at least she got that bit right.

So that's it. Not an inspiring night and the viewing figures are reflecting that. Things ought to improve now that the remaining acts should be a bit more capable of entertaining without the need for the judges to prance around with their teams or get hugely different people to attempt a sing-a-long.

As future votes are purely down to the public, you do have to remember the four that won through on that basis: Ruth, Jazz, Bo and Vince must stand a good chance. Becky is the only one I would add to that list in place of the awful Vince. If they made the votes such that it was the top four that go through, rather than one from each team, then Max might also stand a chance.