Eurovision: Semi Final 1

Later today the first Eurovision Semi Final will be broadcast. Who will make it through to the Final? This is a tough group but here are my predictions:

Very confident about these five:

Malta | Cyprus | Ukraine | Lithuania | Sweden

Undeserved, as not pleasant performances, but they'll still qualify:

Russia | Norway

Likely to sneak through:

Croatia | Romania

And that leaves one more place. Much as I'd like it to be Ireland, and they'd be the bookies' choice to make 10th place, I think either Azerbaijan or North Macedonia will make it. Azerbaijan have a commercial number and a mass of online supporters. North Macedonia have a well-sung ballad which, in this group, is almost unique whereas Azerbaijan have Cyprus and Croatia doing the pop song better. So I'll pick North Macedonia for place 10.

But wish Lesley Roy well!

The juries will already have voted, based on the evening performances last night. From what I can gather, Azerbaijan did well, as did North Macedonia. Ireland, Ukraine and Sweden let themselves down. I can't see this effected Ukraine or Sweden's qualification chances, though, and stick with my predictions as above.

Update 22:10 Tuesday

Well, I was wrong about the bottom three. Watching the show, I can see how Azerbaijan made it through with a very professional and confident performance. In contrast Romania was poor and jumbled, a shadow of what we've seen from the artist before. The big surprise for me is Croatia! The bookies, too, who had Croatia as one of the leaders of the evening, odds plummeting to around 100 at one point. Instead of these two we get Belgium and Israel. Both were uninspiring and I still can't see either making any impact at the Final at all. Azerbaijan could take votes from Cyprus, whose predicted place has already fallen.

I would have expected North Macedonia to make it through in preference to either of those after a stunning and near-perfect ballad from an excellent singer. Maybe just too old-style for Eurovision. Norway got through and was one of the worst of the night.

Ukraine seem to have made a significant impact with a spot-on performance.

Italy still retain the top spot but the dreadful Malta seem to have done themselves no harm with a faultless, if horrible, performance from their act.

We need France to put Malta firmly in her place on the night.