Four-way battle to qualify for Ireland, Azerbaijan, Romania and Belgium

 

There is a real 4-way competition opening up for the Group 1 Semi Final as to who will qualify between Romania, Belgium, Ireland and Azerbaijan.

The 'Groups' may not be numbered correctly as 1 or 2 - I cannot remember which is which in the competition but the countries that make up each Group are correct so bear with me if I have them the wrong way round. The fight still exists.

At the time of writing, and as can be seen above, Romania are predicted to make it but with the slimmest of margins over Belgium which could easily have changed by the time I finish the article! Ireland are not far behind either and have been leading not only the group but, one day, were seen as a better bet than Croatia and Israel! That was just for one day, unfortunately. Well, unfortunately for Ireland and for me as I like their entry a lot. Israel and Croatia have since provided a bit more confidence with the bookies from their rehearsals to date whereas Australia, once expected to make it, have not. The other contenders in this tough, tough group are North Macedonia and Slovenia. No-one is giving Slovenia even a glimpse of a chance and North Macedonia seem to be lacking in friends as their track is very well sung indeed. They seem to be suffering the same fate as Spain, now out at a ridiculous 1000-1 (and it can't get worse than that on Betfair!) with people apparently taking the view that a sad male ballad will not win this year.

The others in Group 1, Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine, Sweden, Russia and Norway, all seem sure to get through. Neither Russia nor Norway should, in my view, but they have their supporters and the bookies' declared chances of success reflect that.

Those four contenders for the remaining place to join Croatia and Israel in the Final have a difficult task. Each has its merits. Romania has been quite well fancied for a while but has recently dipped quite a lot - it's a decent song that could be well-presented and will have appeal, along the lines of Bulgaria, but rehearsals haven't gone well so far.

So the only way in will be for one of Azerbaijan, Belgium or Ireland to take Romania's place. Azerbaijan have a typically hot and sexy number and will look good and definitely have Eurovision appeal and Baku money. You can never discount Azerbaijan in Eurovision. Belgium are the cool guys this year and, in the absence of many cool guys, I am surprised to see them struggling to qualify. They're the most likely to get in as things stand, in my opinion.

Ireland have a track that is a real pop song. You'll be humming it after she finishes. But I don't know how the girl will come across or how well she can perform, whether nerves will show or not. Azerbaijan can hide errors in a glittering outfit and very long legs. Belgium have each other and don't make errors anyway. They're too experienced, perhaps even tediously so. Like Cliff Richard in a fog. 

While I wrote this, Belgium drew equal with Romania. Interesting.

The table above, incidentally predicts the Finalists. At the top are those who are automatically included so it is not a representation of who is likely to win, just who'll get to the Final.