The first couple of weeks have seen big changes in the betting here in the UK, with the 'all American' boy and girl now favourites - Scotty at 3-1 and Pia at 4-1. Lauren, Casey and James are tucked in pretty closely behind them but that's about it. There's then a big jump to odds in the region of 20-1+ for Jacob, Stefano, Thia and Paul and Haley and Naima trailing way, way behind at odds implying they're as good as gone, in the region of 130-1.
I have to say I find these surprising. Whilst Scotty and Pia are clearly confident professionals and could stand on a stage anywhere and put in a good performance neither seem like winners in my book. Casey should win and, if the same votes as went to Lee last year go his way, he will. Stefano is gathering support and remains one of my outside chances for a final three but he'd need an extraordinary song selection to get further.
Thia stretching out to 20-1 doesn't make much sense to me and I have a suspicion that, in a head-to-head competition with Pia, she would win but circumstances probably won't conspire to give us such a charming battle of the -ias.
So, if you're looking for long shots, go for Thia and Stefano and, if she can settle on a style, Haley isn't beaten yet and 120-1, assuming she does survive the next week or two which the punters say she won't, will prove a rare opportunity.